索尔维：尼斯会议-重点明确

F25E4.154.15700.001,025Valuation MetricsF23AF24EF25EAdjusted P/E (x)5.36.97.0Reported P/E (x)5.36.97.0www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingSOLB.BBOEDMO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe rate Solvay Outperform.EUROPEAN CHEMICALS I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KKOn April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYSolvay SAWe value Solvay on c.6x 2025e EV/EBITDA, which we regard as another depressed earnings year, and implies a PT of €35. This isbroadly in line with the industrial specialty peer group, noting while we accept Solvay’s more ‘commodity-orientated’ mix, but wenote that this is focused in essential chemicals which have demonstrated long-term, low-amplitude cyclicality. We also see SOLBas a very cash-generative stock, helped by leadership, scale and both end-market and geographic diversity, which alongside itsclarity of strategic focus should ensure handsome dividend support — a priority for management. (For reference we also note oversummer 2023, when WE Soda pulled its planned UK flotation, it was looking at an indicative valuation nearer 8x EV/EBITDA).RISKSSolvay SADownside risks: In Solvay's largest business, soda ash, demand trends remain negative, with significant supply additions expected,if this reflects in significant price declines testing the historic margin resilience seen in the business this is likely to weigh heavilyon the share price (potential PT impact >€2). Weak demand trends continue in 2025, and pricing power weakens generally andpressure builds on margins, something likely to have an exaggerated impact on Solvay given its mix (potential PT impact >€2). Withthe focus on free cash flow and the dividend a priority a weak performance here is likely to hit the share price alongside buildingconcerns over dividend support for the shares going forward (potential PT impact >€2).RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTIONBernstein brandThe Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index (EDM) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacificregion, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JP) for stocks listed on the Japanese exchanges,and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian (ex-Japan)exchanges -unless otherwise specified.The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings:•Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp•Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp•Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 ppCoverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targetsare suspended temporarily, are no longer current, and should therefore not be relied upon.EUROPEAN CHEMICALS Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, Sanford(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社).3 Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accuratelypredicted, at the present time. The covering analyst may continue to publish research reports on the company to update investorson events and developments.Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under coverage.Autonomous brandThe Autonomous brand rates stocks as indicated below. As our benchmarks we use the Bloomberg Europe 500 Banks AndFinancial Services Index (BEBANKS) and Bloomberg Europe Dev Mkt Financials Large and Mid Cap Price Ret Index EUR (EDMFI)i