it服务第一季度后的行业格局
Surinder Thind, CFA * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1515 | sthind@jefferies.comLogan Schuh * | Equity Associate+1 (201) 685-6981 | lschuh@jefferies.comColton Feldmann, CPA * | Equity Associate(312) 588-5523 | cfeldmann@jefferies.comSource: Company Data, JefferiesACN:F2Q25 Follow-up—Gov't and MacroHeadwinds Lead to Uncertain Outlook(3/20/25)ASGN:1Q25 Results — MarginChallenges Emerge, Adding to GrowthChallenges (4/24/25)CTSH:1Q25 Results—Another StrongQtr, but Macro Weakness Holds Back aGuidance Raise (5/1/25)EPAM:1Q25 Follow-up—ExecutingDespite Uncertainty (5/15/2025)EXLS:1Q25 Follow-up—Double-digitGrowth Appears Sustainable DespiteMacro (5/1/25)Genpact:1Q25 Follow-up—Deal DelaysCause Uncertainty = A More AttractiveEntry Point (5/15/2025)GIB:F2Q25 Follow-up—ManagedServices Stability a Blessing in UncertainTimes (5/2/25)GLOB:Model Update—Still SomeUncertainty but Valuation Too Attractiveto Ignore (5/22/2025)WNS:F4Q25 Results—Solid Qtr, MgmtConfident of a Return to LDD OrganicGrowth (4/24/25)IT Services—Tariff Playbook and 1Q25Preview (4/8/25) 2025 GuidanceExhibit 2 - The Exhibit below shows revised F2025 guidance vs. pre-earnings expectations for both us and consensus. On the topline, CTSH and EPAM both beatwhile there were misses at Genpact and GLOB. On adj EPS, guidance beat at CTSH and EPAM, while guidance at GLOB missed expectations. Note: Data shown forACN and WNS are expectations leading into their most recent earnings print, which was F2Q25 for ACN and F4Q25 for WNS..LowHighACN67,81769,115*Note: Figures shown for ACN are FY25CTSH20,50021,000EPAM5,2725,414EXLS2,0352,065G4,8625,005GLOB2,464WNS1,3521,404*Note: Guidance shown for WNS is FY26= Updated guidance above expectations= Updated guidance below expectations= Updated guidance in-line with expectationsMiss/Beat2025 Revenue Guidance vs. Pre-Earnings ExpectationsGuidanceSource: Company Data, Jefferies, FactSetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 16 - 21 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 68,02320,367 <------------------------------------------------><------------------------------------------------>Range reflects 5% spread in revenuesRange reflects a 10% spread in EPSLowHigh68,680ACN12.5512.7912.6712.73*Note: Figures shown for ACN are FY2520,621CTSH4.985.144.864.985,1615,261EPAM10.7010.9510.2610.492,0432,051EXLS1.831.891.831.885,0345,076G3.413.523.493.542,6112,629GLOB6.106.656.811,3651,364WNS4.434.704.704.64*Note: Guidance shown for WNS is FY26<------------------------------------------------><------------------------------------------------>Range reflects 5% spread in revenuesRange reflects a 10% spread in EPS2025 Adj EPS Guidance vs. Pre-Earnings ExpectationsMiss/BeatJefferiesConsensusConsensusJefferiesGuidance$12.00$12.20$12.40$12.60$12.80$13.00$13.20$10.20$10.40$10.60$10.80$11.00$11.20$1.75$1.80$1.85$1.90$1.95$4.30$4.40$4.50$4.60$4.70$66,445$67,445$68,445$69,445$5,150$5,200$5,250$5,300$5,350$5,400$1,990$2,010$2,030$2,050$2,070$2,090$1,340$1,360$1,380$1,400$4,850$4,900$4,950$5,000$5,050$5,100$3.25$3.30$3.35$3.40$3.45$3.50$3.55$3.60$4.75$4.85$4.95$5.05$5.15$5.25$20,250$20,500$20,750$21,000$21,250$2,460$2,510$2,560$2,610"at least" guide$6.05$6.25$6.45$6.65$6.85"at least" guide Exhibit 3 - Initial full-year 2025 Guidance and 1Q Revisions.CompanyRevenuesY/Y Growth (Reported)Y/Y Growth (Organic)RevenuesY/Y Growth (Reported)Y/Y Growth (Constant Currency)RevenuesY/Y Growth (Reported)Y/Y Growth (Organic)RevenuesY/Y Growth (Reported)Y/Y Growth (Organic)RevenuesY/Y Growth (Reported)Y/Y Growth (Organic)RevenuesY/Y Growth (Reported)Y/Y Growth (Organic)Revenues***Y/Y Growth (Reported)***Y/Y Growth (Organic)****ASGN, CGI do not provide full year guidance**Adj Operating Margin guidance not provided by the company***WNS revenues excludes repair payments; Initial F2026 Guidance***ACN raised/lowered guidance is relative to the updates provided after F1QMetricACNCTSHEPAMEXLSWNSGGLOBSource: Company Data, JefferiesExhibit 4 - CY2025E Y/Y Organic Growth.---5%0%5%10%15%ACNCGISource: Company Data, JefferiesExhibit 6 - CY2025E Y/Y Reported Growth.2.6%-3.5%8.3%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%ACNASGNCGISource: Company Data, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 16 - 21 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Source: Company Data, JefferiesExhibit 7 - CY2025E GAAP Operating Margin.15.7%6.0%15.0%0%5%10%15%20%25%ACNASGNCGISource: Company Data, Jefferies Organic Growth.Acceleration from Prior QuarterDeceleration from Prior QuarterGrowth rate Unchanged from Prior QuarterExhibit 8 - Organic growth was more mixed this quarter, as macro concerns has somewhat tempered the enthusiasm seen last quarter. We note organic growthacross the board remains signficantly below its peak in 2021 and in most cases, below pre-pandemic levels as well. Specifically, growth rates at ASGN, CTSH,EPAM, and WNS improved this quarter, whil
