产业债财报中的风险与机会
请阅读最后一页的重要声明！分析师孙彬彬SAC证书编号：S0160525020001sunbb@ctsec.com分析师孟万林SAC证书编号：S0160525030002mengwl@ctsec.com分析师涂靖靖SAC证书编号：S0160525030001tujj@ctsec.com相关报告1.《基于MC定价的转债择券和转债择时》2025-05-202.《利率｜非美货币的衰退式升值》2025-05-203.《信用|继续看好拉久期》05-18 核心观点74%）。重点行业表现如何？❖钢铁：需求疲软以积极关注。❖风险提示：预期 2025- 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准1产业债年报一季报怎么样？...................................................................................................................52重点行业表现如何？...............................................................................................................................72.1公用事业..............................................................................................................................................72.2煤炭....................................................................................................................................................102.3钢铁....................................................................................................................................................132.4房地产................................................................................................................................................163关税战对产业债的影响有多大？.........................................................................................................184其他产业债哪些值得关注？.................................................................................................................205小结.........................................................................................................................................................216风险提示.................................................................................................................................................22图1.营收增速分布.........................................................................................................................................5图2.归母净利润增速分布.............................................................................................................................5图3.带息债务及同比.....................................................................................................................................5图4.经营性净现金流及同比.........................................................................................................................5图5. 2024年各行业盈利增速情况.................................................................................................................6图6. 2025年一季度各行业盈利增速情况.....................................................................................................6图7. 2024年分行业归母净利润增速.............................................................................................................6图8. 2024年各行业资产负债率及同比变动.................................................................................................6图9. 2024年各行业盈利增速及对应行业存量产业债.................................................................................7图10.不同类型机组发电量累计增速比较...................................................................................................8图11.煤炭价格中枢持续下行.......................................................................................................................8图12. 2021-1Q2025公用事业行业营收规模及同比增速...........................................................................8图13. 2021-1Q2025公用事业行业净利润及同比增速................................................................................8图14. 2021-1Q2025公用事业归母净利润及同比增速................................................................................9图15. 2020-2024公用事业销售毛利率及销售净利率.................................................................................9图16. 2020-1Q2025公用事业行业资产负债率............................................................................................9图17. 2021-1Q2025公用事业行业带息债务及同比增速............................................................................9内容目录图表目录 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图18.部分平均估值较高的公用事业发行人.............................................................................................10图19.原煤产量.............................................................................................................................................10图20.煤炭重点电厂日耗煤炭量.................................................................................................................10图21.动力煤价格.........................................................................................................................................11图22.炼焦煤港口价格.................................................................................................................................11图23. 2021-1Q2025煤炭行业营收规模及同比增速..................................................................................11图24. 2021-1Q2025煤炭行业净利润及同比增速......................................................................................11图25. 2021-1Q2025煤炭行业归母净利润及同比增速..............................................................................12图26. 2020-2024煤炭行业销售毛利率及销售净利率...........................................................................