亚洲宏观战略指出TWD-115232217的下一步是什么

Asia Macro StrategyNotes7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa Perry KojodjojoStrategist+852-2203 6153 the fund. This situation implies two potential consequences: (a) overseasinvestmentcould slow or potentially be repatriated,particularly forunhedged assets such as ETF holdings, further strengthening the TWD,and (b) given how expensive hedging via NDF is (Figure 7), proxy hedgingis likely to increase. In Asia, the two proxy currencies lifers typically utilizeare the KRW and the SGD, reinforcing our bias to be short USD/KRW. It isworth noting that every 1% increase in FX hedging equates to ~USD4bnworth of flows.A more hands-off approachby the authorities.Given the TWD strength(evident also in the increase in long TWD positioning, Figure 8), thegovernor stated clearly that the CBC will stand ready to manage TWDvolatility. However, he also stated it prefers the currency to be market-determined.This approach may partly stem from FX valuationconsiderations. According to the CBC's FX model, the TWD is still tradingin the middle of its +/-5% trading band (Figure 9).Return of foreign equity flows.There is still scope for reallocation intoTaiwanese equities, given the reduction in positioning in recent months;foreign ownership fell to 40.9% in March, down from a peak of 43.7% inJanuary. This is supported by a relatively strong local economic backdrop(Figure 10). Indeed, with global semiconductor sales remaining robust andstrong guidance on AI growth globally (based on recent earnings calls),equity inflows are expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace.A key point to watch will be whether domestic retailers begin reducing theiroverseas purchasing of foreign assets such as in Korea. If so, this too could add toTWD appreciation. Overall, we have turned more constructive on the TWD.However, given how negative the forward points are, we prefer to be short USD/North Asia via CNH and KRW.Figure 1: TWD strength vs. the USD sees largest single-day move9092 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24%DoDSource : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LPFigure 2: Taiwan has seen a notable pick-up in equityinflows, reaching ~USD2bn MTD-20-15-10-50510Jan-24USDbn, 1MsumSource : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Page 2nn-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0% Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongAppendix 1Important Disclosures*Other information available upon request*Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research, please visit our globaldisclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from withinthis report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.Analyst CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or viewin this report. Perry Kojodjojo. Page 5 Page 6Additional InformationThe information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively 'DeutscheBank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to bereliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to third-party websites in thisreport are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for theaccuracy or security controls of those websites.If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in this report, oris included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Bank may act asprincipal for its own account or as agent for another person.Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for its own accountor with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others within Deutsche Bank,including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this researchreport. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of communication may differ fromrecommendations contained in others, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, perspectives orotherwise. Deutsche Bank and/or its affil