加大投资以推动外卖业务扩张

Target PriceUS$55.00Up/Downside47.7%Current PriceUS$37.25China InternetSaiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hkYe TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hkWentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hkJoanna Ma(852) 3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hkStock DataMkt Cap (US$ mn)57,290.5Avg 3 mths t/o (US$ mn)52w High/Low (US$)47.08/24.95Total Issued Shares (mn)Source: FactSetShareholding StructureMax Smart LimitiedBlackRockSource: HKExShare PerformanceAbsoluteRelative-2.4%-10.0%11.7%Source: FactSet12-mth Price PerformanceSource: FactSet 368.11538.09.6%4.7%1-mth-13.6%3-mth-5.2%6-mth12.3% PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ONLAST PAGEBusiness forecasts update and valuationFigure1:JD: quarterly financial results(RMBbn)1Q242Q243Q24Revenue breakdown by product andservices revenueNet product revenues208.5233.9204.6YoY growth (%)6.6%0.0%4.8%Electronics and home appliancerevenues123.2145.1122.6YoY growth (%)5.3%-4.6%2.7%General merchandise revenues85.388.882.1YoY growth (%)8.6%8.7%8.0%Net services revenues51.557.555.8YoY growth (%)8.8%6.3%6.5%Marketplace and advertising revenues19.323.420.826.6YoY growth (%)1.2%4.1%6.3%Logistics and other service revenues32.334.135.0YoY growth (%)13.8%7.9%6.5%Revenue breakdown by businesssegmentsJD Retail226.8257.1225.0YoY growth (%)6.8%1.5%6.1%JD Logistics42.144.244.4YoY growth (%)14.7%7.7%6.6%New businesses (including Dada)4.94.65.0YoY growth (%)-19.2%-35.0%-25.7%Intersegment elimination-13.8-14.5-14.0Total revenue260.0291.4260.4YoY growth (%)7.0%1.2%5.1%Gross profit39.845.945.0Operating profit7.710.512.0JD Retail operating profit9.310.111.610.0New businesses (ex. Gain on sale ofproperty)-0.3-0.5-0.4Non-GAAP net profit8.914.513.211.3YoY growth (%)17.2%69.0%23.9%Margin profileGPM (%)15.3%15.8%17.3%OPM (%)3.0%3.6%4.6%JD Retail4.1%3.9%5.2%Adjusted NPM (%)3.4%5.0%5.1%Source: Bloomberg, Company data, CMBIGMestimates PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ONLAST PAGEDCF-based target price of US$55.0Our target priceofUS$55.0isderived fromtheDCF valuation methodology (WACC of11.8% and terminal growth of 1.5%; both unchanged). Our target price translates into13x2025E PE (non-GAAP).Figure4:JD: DCF valuation (WACC of 11.8% and terminal growth of 1.5%)(RMBbn)2025E2026E2027ETotal revenue1,2931,3661,443NPV of FCF291Discountedterminalvalue170Total equityvaluation618No. of shares(diluted, mn)1,538TP per share(US$)55.0Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimatesRisks1) Consumption recovery takes longer than we expect; 2) more intensified-than-expectedbusiness competition; 3) moreaggressive-than-expected investment on FD businessmayweigh onearnings growth. 2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E1,5041,5521,5901,6201,644 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ONLAST PAGEDisclosures& DisclaimersAnalyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKonglisted companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report.CMBIGM RatingsBUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potentialreturn of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGMOUTPERFORM:Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark overnext 12 monthsMARKET-PERFORM:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsUNDERPERFORM:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsCMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimitedAddress: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank)Important DisclosuresThere are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored