信贷获取格莱珉（CREDAG）：下调评级至减持，持续的不利因素和较低的指引是一个风险组合

Issuer of report:HSBC Securities and CapitalMarkets (India) Private LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comDOWNGRADE TO REDUCETARGET PRICE(INR)PREVIOUS TARGET(INR)900.00900.00SHARE PRICE(INR)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE1120.50-19.7%(as of19 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(INRm)178,979Free floatMarket cap(USDm)2,093BBGCREDAG IN3m ADTV (USDm)23RICCRDE.NSFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(INR)Year to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027e03/2028eHSBC EPS34.1657.5298.27HSBC EPS (prev)29.0171.4398.92Change (%)17.7-19.5-0.7Consensus EPS37.9776.93109.27PE (x)32.819.511.4Dividend yield (%)0.00.00.0P/NAV2.62.31.9ROE inc. gwill (%)7.912.117.752-WEEK PRICE(INR)Source:RefinitivIBES, HSBC estimatesAbhishek Murarka*Senior Analyst, FinancialsHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitedabhishek.murarka@hsbc.co.in+91 96 1996 4653Rahil Shah*Analyst, India FinancialsHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitedrahil.shah@hsbc.co.in+91 22 6628 3719Gaurav Sharma*Analyst, Insurance and Diversified FinancialsHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India)PrivateLimitedgaurav11.sharma@hsbc.co.in+ 91 22 2268 2011* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesDiversified Financial SrvcsIndia720.001160.001600.0005/2411/2405/25Target price: 900.00High: 1505.60 Low: 813.90 Current: 1120.50 Change↓N.A.N.A.N.A.↓ ◆◆◆ 26%120.32136.809.30.01.618.1 2Financial statementsYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027e03/2028eP&L summary(INRm)Net interest income35,99237,48843,79852,429Net fees/commissions1,0168661,0031,188Trading profits0000Other income1,0781,2141,3711,549Total income38,08639,56846,17255,166Operating expense-11,702-13,063-15,153-17,577Bad debt charge-19,295-14,493-10,496-12,462HSBC PBT7,08912,01220,52325,127Exceptionals0000PBT7,08912,01220,52325,127Taxation-1,775-3,063-5,233-6,407Minorities and others0000Attributable profit5,3148,94915,28918,720HSBC attributable profit5,3148,94915,28918,720Balance sheet summary(INRm)Ordinary equity69,56078,50993,798112,518HSBC ordinary equity69,56078,50993,798112,518Customer loans242,745274,864324,929387,199Debt securities holdings8,9309,64410,60911,670Interest earning assets270,451281,481325,652385,867Total assets278,025313,316368,578436,071Capital (%)RWA(INRm)254,558288,241340,742406,043Total tier 124.524.725.425.9Total capital25.425.526.126.5Ratio, growth & per share analysisYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027e03/2028eY-on-y % changeTotal income10.73.916.719.5Operating expense11.511.616.016.0Pre-provision profit10.30.517.021.2EPS-63.268.470.922.4HSBC EPS-63.268.470.922.4DPS-100.0NAV (including goodwill)5.612.919.520.0Ratios (%)Cost/income ratio30.733.032.831.9Bad debt charge7.85.63.53.5NPL/loan4.95.34.54.2NPL/RWA4.85.24.44.1Provision to risk assets/RWA3.13.42.82.6Coverage64.864.664.564.0ROE (including goodwill)7.912.117.718.1Per share data(INR)EPS reported (diluted)34.1657.5298.27120.32HSBCEPS (diluted)34.1657.5298.27120.32DPS0.000.000.000.00NAV435.51491.54587.27704.47NAV (including goodwill)435.51491.54587.27704.47Valuation dataYear toPE*Pre-provision multipleP/NAVDividend yield (%)* Based on HSBC EPS (diluted)ESG metricsEnvironmental IndicatorsGHG emission intensityEnergy intensityCO2reduction policySocial IndicatorsEmployee costs as % of revenuesEmployee turnover (%)Diversity policySource: Company data, HSBC*GHG intensity and energy intensity are measuredin kg and kWhrespectivelyagainst revenuein USD ‘000sIssuer informationShare price(INR)Target price(INR)RIC(Equity)Bloomberg (Equity)Market cap(USDm)PricerelativeSource: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 19 May 2025Financials & valuation:CreditAccess Grameen Takeaways from thepost-earnings conference callGuidanceandcompany strategy◆Management guidancefor FY26e:AUM growthof14-18% y-o-y(MFI loansgrowth of8-12%),NIMof12.6-12.8%,cost to income ratioof32.0-34.0%,credit costsof5.5-6.0%,ROAof2.9-3.4%,and ROEof11.8-13.3%.◆MFI loangrowth of14-15% y-o-y on steady state basis.◆CREDAGexpects its retail finance portfolio to grow atahealthy rate and contribute c15% ofAUM inthemedium term. The secured loans account for c30% of its retail finance andCREDAG expect them to contribute c50% of retail finance overthemedium term.◆Average ticket size (ATS) in unsecured loans is cINR170K with Portfolio at Risk (PAR) 15dpd at c2.0%. Secured loan’s ATS is cINR680K with PAR15 at c0.9%.◆The mortgage portfolio stood at cINR3.5bn at end FY25. Of this, home loans account forcINR1bn with ATS cINR680K.◆The muted growth in MFI loans in Bihar was attributable toacautious approach toimproveportfolio quality and shortfall in manpower. It expects growth to normalise in FY26.Asset quality and credit cost◆Provision coverage ratio (PCR) against stage 3 assets declined in 4QFY25 as CREDAGreduced PCR for those MFI customers who partially repaid (c50% EMI) their loans. Onstage 2 assets, provision declined asthe rise in delinquencies were attributable to lower riskprofile districts of Karnataka which require lower