欧洲投资级英镑投资级债券表现滞后

FIGURE 2. ...and has recently underperformed vs $-IG-10-505101520Jan-25Apr-25€-IG60708090100110120130140150Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24OAS, bpDiff (RHA)Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchRestricted - External Oct-24Jan-25£-IGZoso Davies+44 (0) 20 7773 5815zoso.davies@barclays.comBarclays, UKMelissa McCallum, CFA+ 44 (0) 20 7773 3573melissa.mccallum@barclays.comBarclays, UK Apr-25$-IG 0102030405060 FIGURE 3. £-IG widening led by the tightest-trading segments of theFIGURE 4. £-IG as a whole notably wider than €-IG0%5%10%15%20%25%30%£-IG€-IGShare of index% of YTD rangeOnly includes bonds in £- and €-IG indices at end-2024 and 14 May 2025.Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 5. Top 20 £-IG bonds trading widest in year-to-date rangeTickerCouponMaturityOAS% of YTDrangeDist to MinSubordinationNAB1.69915-Sep-3115696%52LT2AWLN6.62515-Jan-2917395%48SeniorANZ1.80916-Sep-3115694%46LT2TELEFO5.4458-Oct-2910692%48SeniorAWLN2.75026-Oct-2915792%45SeniorUNCOLO1.6254-Jun-617191%60SeniorGBSOCH5.19312-Feb-3810690%42SeniorFSHPHO1.87514-Jul-618286%41SeniorSWSFIN3.00028-May-3720886%66SeniorBRKHEC1.87516-Jun-629384%50SeniorPORTER4.6254-Apr-2912481%30SeniorCRHID4.1252-Dec-298080%49SeniorMOTOPG1.7503-Jul-298480%46SeniorLONQUA2.25020-Jul-2912277%20Seniorthe widest 20% have barely moved, while the (higher quality) tight-trading names have led theweakness ( Figure 3). As a result, the index has become more tightly distributed. In this context,looking at where names tradein their own rangeis more useful than outright trading levels asthe biggest underperformers have not been the names trading widest outright.We calculate where each bond trades in its year-to-date range, and plot the distribution inFigure 4. The £-IG market as a whole trades relatively wide in its YTD range, with the modal bondtrading around 40-50% of its YTD range compared to 30-40% in €-IG. Likewise, 43% of £-IGtrades wider than 50% of YTD range versus just 16% for €-IG. Alongside this rightwardshift,anumber of bonds sit in the right tail in £-IG, near the wide of the range. Given the sharpretracement since 10 April, it is surprising that any bonds are still hanging out at the wides.Below we screen for bonds that have missed out on, or at least lagged, the rally ( Figure 5) asthese stand to benefit from any momentum-chasing demand.2 Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchISINSectorXS2386287416BankingXS0093312550Other UtilityXS2353399780BankingXS0545440900CommunicationsXS1895640404Other UtilityXS2343114331Other IndustrialXS0863010160Other FinancialXS2360589563Other FinancialXS2180916871Other UtilityXS2188667278ElectricXS1053449028TransportationXS1328187627Capital GoodsXS2021471862Consumer CyclicalXS1648468491Other Financial16 May 2025 IG credit at a glanceFIGURE 6. Week-on-week change in bond and CDS indicesNote: Wednesday-to-Wednesday.Source: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 8. Cross-currency RV (hedged to EUR using xccy basis)708090100110120130140Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24€-bonds (99bp)£-bonds, hedged (116bp)€ ASW equivalent,bpSource: Barclays Research16 May 2025 Jan-25Apr-25$-bonds, hedged (112bp) Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Zoso Davies and Melissa McCallum, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal viewsabout any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesregularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securities that are thesubject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof). Barclays trading desks may have either a long and / or short position in such securities,other financial instruments and / or derivatives, which may pose a conflict with the interests of investing customers. Where permitted and subjec