迅速缓和：我们讨论了欧洲公司债券ETF增长乏力、英镑投资级债券（£IG）表现不佳、高收益（HY）货币交叉相对价值以及额外一级资本债（AT1）-二级资本债（T2）互换的问题。

Restricted - External Soren Willemann+44 (0) 20 7773 9983soren.willemann@barclays.comBarclays, UKZoso Davies+44 (0) 20 7773 5815zoso.davies@barclays.comBarclays, UKFranck Bataille+33 (0) 14458 3221franck.bataille@barclays.comBBI, ParisMelissa McCallum, CFA+ 44 (0) 20 7773 3573melissa.mccallum@barclays.comBarclays, UKSrijan Karn+91 (0) 22 6175 3592srijan.karn@barclays.comBarclays, UKKhush Patel+44 (0) 20 7773 4647khush.patel@barclays.comBarclays, UK European Hybrid CapitalRefreshing our AT1-LT2 switches. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23With LT2s currently looking attractive versus AT1s on both a relative value and technical basis,we recommend switches out of AT1 into LT2, but also show LT2-AT1 switches for investors whofavour AT1s.European Credit – AppendicesFundamentals in focus and reporting calendar. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28We highlight our reporting calendar of upcoming events. 2 European OverviewThat de-escalated quicklyThe rally following the positive US-China news hasleftIGcredit only pricing in 15% of our end-2025 bear scenario, andHY less so. With EU-US trade negotiations still unresolved, wesee little upside for spreads, and we focus on finding the bestrisk-reward for generating carry.Thetariffde-escalation momentum continued, with weekend negotiations between the US andChina yielding sharp mutual reductions intariffrates, at least until mid-August. Our USeconomists calculate overall trade-weightedtariffsfor the US at about 14%, substantially belowthe 25% they estimate had been in place over the past month. They also assume the US willmaintain the newly announcedtariffrates on China throughout the medium term,afterupcoming negotiations.Although the US economy is set to slow, with the US-Chinatariffnews, they dropped their callfor a shallow US recession in 2025, seeing positive growth in every quarter this year. They alsocut their inflation forecast, although they change their Fed call to only one cut this year, inDecember.Our macro strategists argue – and market reaction arguably seems to support this – that the US– and the world – seems to have turned the page ontariffs.It now looks like totaltariffson USimports will likely settle in a range of 14-17%: somewhere between 10-30% on China, 10%'reciprocal'tariffson the rest of the world, and some sectoraltariffs(with exemptions). This isnot great for growth, but we view it as a significant improvement over the situation just a fewweeks ago.Fitting with the improved view on the US economy, our US credit strategy team revised downits end-2025 spread forecasts to 95-100bp for $IG (vs 91bp currently) and 325-350bp for $HY (vs301bp currently): still calling for wider spreads, but only marginally so.Are markets right in turning thetariffpage? While the US-China news is arguably positive on itsown, and with potential positive read-across for EU-US negotiations, the reality is that we havehad little tangible news to date – positive or otherwise – on where Europeantariffscouldultimately land. Given the strong rally in recent weeks, the upside appears to be vanishing fast.Fitting with that, we like Hedging amid de-escalation, and we see value in put spreads on CDXHY and payer spreads on Xover, particularly if headlines on EU-US negotiations turn negative.With the notion that the market can only focus on one narrative at a time, one clear upcomingcatalyst is the US deficit, and our macro colleagues argue the House version of the tax bill addsseveral trillion dollars to the US 10-year deficit. With the deficit already at 6.5-7% of GDP,investors in longer US bonds are unlikely to be happy: 30y UST yields are already past the levelsthat prompted the 90-daytariffpause.16 May 2025 Soren Willemann+44 (0) 20 7773 9983soren.willemann@barclays.comBarclays, UK FIGURE 1. €IG and Main are pricing in 15% of our end-2025 bearFIGURE 2. Downside to 9 April spread scenario to generate €100kincome across each marketBearPctBear15015.0%5757.1%9016.8%513-0.5%End-2025 Base and Bear forecasts as of our 2025 Global Credit OutlookFor each market, identify notional required to generate €100k income from carry androll over 12 months. Given current spreads and spreads 9th April and currentduration, calculate the downside if 9th April spreads are reached.Source: Barclays ResearchWhere does that leave Europe? While the uncertainties remain around any EU-US trade deal, theUS-China developments are arguably good news, both on their own and in terms of a read-across, leaving upside risks to our recession forecast for the euro area.In terms of valuations, it is instructive to consider current IG/HY CDS/cash valuations relative toour beginning of year base and bear cases ( Figure 1). Based on these, we also calculate animplied bear probability, which iseffectivelywhere in the base-bear range currentvaluations stand. For IG, CDS and cash, we see markets pricing in 15% of our bear scenario, andless for HY, with Xover on top of our prior ba