有色金属行业跟踪周报：中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，避险情绪大幅回落，工业金属环比走强
东吴证券研究所1/182025年05月18日证券分析师孟祥文执业证书：S0600523120001mengxw@dwzq.com.cn证券分析师徐毅达执业证书：S0600524110001xuyd@dwzq.com.cn《市场延续上周非农交易，美联储鹰派发言压制工业金属上行空间》2025-05-11《货币失序与滞胀困局：黄金的终极2025-04-302024/9/172025/1/152025/5/15有色金属沪深300 行业走势相关研究信用密码》-26%-22%-18%-14%-10%-6%-2%2%6%10%14%2024/5/20 内容目录1.行情回顾：上证综指上涨0.76%，申万有色金属排名中等..........................................................52.本周基本面回顾..................................................................................................................................62.1.工业金属：中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，避险情绪大幅回落，工业金属环比走强.........................................................................................................................................................62.1.1.铜：中美贸易局势缓和，市场延续抢出口提振铜短期需求，预计短期价格偏强震荡..................................................................................................................................................82.1.2.铝：社库持续下行叠加中美贸易局势缓解，海内外铝价环比上涨，关注铝土矿供给局势带来的利润变化..............................................................................................................92.1.3.锌：锌库存环比下降，价格环比上涨.........................................................................102.1.4.锡：库存升降不一，锡价环比上涨.............................................................................112.2.贵金属：中美发表贸易联合申明，避险情绪大幅缓解，黄金价格大幅回落...................112.3.稀土：中美贸易局势缓和，市场预期出口增长，本周稀土价格环比上涨.......................143.本周新闻............................................................................................................................................173.1.宏观新闻...................................................................................................................................174.风险提示............................................................................................................................................17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分东吴证券研究所2/18 图表目录图1：申万一级行业周涨跌幅（%）...................................................................................................5图2：申万有色二级行业周涨跌幅（%）...........................................................................................5图3：有色子行业周涨跌幅（%）.......................................................................................................5图4：本周涨幅前五公司（%）...........................................................................................................6图5：本周跌幅前五公司（%）...........................................................................................................6图6：本周主要标的涨跌幅统计（截至2025年5月16日）...........................................................6图7：LME铜价及库存.........................................................................................................................9图8：SHFE铜价及库存........................................................................................................................9图9：铜粗炼加工费（美元/干吨）.....................................................................................................9图10：铜精废价差（元/吨）...............................................................................................................9图11：LME铝价及库存.....................................................................................................................10图12：SHFE铝价及库存....................................................................................................................10图13：LME锌价及库存.....................................................................................................................11图14：SHFE锌价及库存....................................................................................................................11图15：LME锡价及库存.....................................................................................................................11图16：SHFE锡价及库存....................................................................................................................11图17：各国央行总资产.......................................................................................................................12图18：美联储资产负债表组成...........................................................................................................12图19：美联储银行总资产与Comex黄金.........................................................................................13图20：实际利率与Comex黄金.........................................................................................................13图21：美国国债长短期利差（%）...................................................................................................13图22：金银比（金价/银价）.............................................................................................................13图23：黄金、白银ETF持仓量.........................................................................................................13图24：Comex黄金、白银期货收盘价..............................................................................................13图25：氧化镨钕价格（元/吨）.........................................................................................................14图26：烧结钕铁硼50H（元/千克）................................................................................
