GeoPark（GPRK）：初步观点阿根廷交易失败

Latin America | EnergyGEOPARK First View: Argentina Deal Falls Through Conclusion GeoPark announced that its partner in Argentina, Phoenix Global Resources,has decided to withdraw from the sale/purchase agreement for the VacaMuerta shale blocks signed last year. The deal had been impacted by aprotracted approval from the provincial government and the parties had theright to exit the agreement (with no penalty) from May 13th2025. The news is disappointing as it leaves GPRK with limited growth options nearterm and puts pressure on the incoming CEO to move swiftly on the inorganicfront. That said, GPRK keeps a solid balance sheet (US$330m cash in hand,1x ND/EBITDA at 1Q25) and its assets in Colombia have stabilised, offeringa strong base from where to grow. Given this and the fact that the firm hashedged ‘approximately 87% of 2025 volumes’ and that the stock trades at asizeable discount to its underlying assets, we are somewhat puzzled why GPRKhas not launched (or at least signaled) a share buyback, which could havesoftened the blow near term. Related Research Alejandro Anibal Demichelis * | Equity Analyst+34 919498377 | ademichelis@jefferies.comPedro Baptista * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 207 029 8351 | pbaptista@jefferies.comFrancisco Barbosa ^ | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-2197 | fbarbosa@jefferies.com Company Description GEOPARK GeoPark was founded in 2002 as a pan-Latin American independent oil & gas explorer, operator and consolidator. From its initial base in Chile, thecompany's development of Colombia's Llanos 34 block (45% owned by GeoPark and in which it partners with Parex) has propelled Geopark into one ofthe key and lowest cost oil producers in the region. The acquisition of Amerisur just before the pandemic strengthened Geopark's position in Colombiathrough its minority stake in the high growth potential CPO-5 block in the Llanos basin. The recent inorganic entry into Argentina's Vaca Muerta basinbrings material growth opportunities and should help GPRK create a strong second development hub in Latin America. Company Valuation/Risks GEOPARK We set our price target for Geopark (GPRK) in line with our estimated net asset value (NAV) for the company, based on a long-term US$70/bbl Brentoil price assumption. We believe that the key risks to attaining our price target include: • Oil price risk: a significant drop in oil prices could render some of the developments uneconomical. • Currency risk: the oil industry is by and large US$ denominated, and significant FX moves could impact the cost base. • Fiscal/environmental risk: the assets are generally assigned on concessions, licenses, or profit-sharing contracts and these could be terminatedor nationalised unexpectedly. Similarly, taxation (even in OECD countries) could be significantly changed unexpectedly, impacting the value of theassets. In addition, any spill or environmental damage due to exploration and production activity could have a material impact on the value of the firm. • Access to infrastructure risk: Evacuation of production requires access to 3rd party infrastructure. Failing to access this infrastructure or delays inbuilding new one could impact the company's production profile. • Latin American political & economic environment risk: GeoPark’s assets are located across Latin America, with a particular exposure to Colombia andArgentina. A deterioration of the regional political/economic environment, and more specifically that of Colombia and/or Argentina, could significantlyimpact the company’s earnings. • Production performance, delay/cost overrun risk: the value of the assets is particularly sensitive to the performance of reservoirs, and these coulddevelop unexpected issues that could affect production. Similarly, asset values could be materially impacted by cost overruns, or delays in the start-up or ramp-up of fields. • Exploration/appraisal risk: Exploration and appraisal success is key to share price performance and to the ultimate value of the stock. Thus, asustained period of exploration/appraisal activity disappointments could have a material impact on the stock. • Governance risk: The recent actions taken by management to address the governance and strategic allegations reportedly raised by the formerchairman appear as steps in the right direction. That said, we believe that lack of further governance progress and/or additional governance allegationscould have a material impact on the stock. Analyst Certification: I, Alejandro Anibal Demichelis, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies)and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report. I, Pedro Baptista, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subje