特朗普政府经济政策前100天：关税政策误判的影响

MarubeniWashington Report First 100 days:The Trump Administration's Economic PolicyWill There Be an Affect ofTariff Policy Miscalculations? Marubeni America CorporationWashington Office ChiefYusuke Inoueinoue-y@marubeni.com Although the tariff policy was announced with great fanfare, it has multiple conflictingobjectives and three miscalculations have combined to prevent it from progressing ashoped. Othereconomicpoliciesthatarelikelytoboosttheeconomy,suchastaxcuts,deregulation, and deficit reduction, will take time to take effect, and the move to imposetariffs first could have an impact on those other policies. It will be even more difficult to undertake more in-depth economic reforms, such asreforming the international financial system, but there is deep-rooted opposition to theexisting order surrounding domestic affairs, foreign affairs, and the economy, andthereremains the possibility that bold reforms will be attempted at some point. The Trump administration marked its 100th day in office on April 29. Advocating anAmerica First policy and aiming to restore America's golden age, the administration hassimultaneously begun working on many of the pledges it made during the electioncampaign, including measures against illegal immigration, government reform, andrevisions to environmental and energy policies. In the economic field, tariff policy in particular has attracted a great deal of attention.This is because, with new tariffs being announced and revised in short cycles, the impactthey will have on not only the US economy but the global economy as a whole issignificant. However, tariff policy is merely one part of economic policy. Here, we would liketo provide an overall picture of the Trump administration's economic policies, includingtariff policy, and consider the outlook for the future. 1. Miscalculation regarding tariff policy President Trump has made clear his intention to actively utilize tariff policies since theelection campaign. On his first day in office,he announced a state of emergencyregarding synthetic drugs, fentanyl, and illegal immigration, andon February 1, heimposed tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China based on the National Emergency EconomicPowers Act (IEEPA).On April 2, he announced reciprocal tariffs on countries around theworld, and a flat 10% basic tariff was imposed on the 5th. Figures were also presentedfor the additional portion to be imposed on about 60 countries and regions, but a few days later, it was suspended for 90 days until July 9. At present, tariff measuresremain in effect on Mexico and Canada, and a 25% tariff is imposed on imports that donotcomply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).In addition, atotal tariff of 145% has been imposed on China, including the fentanyl issue andreciprocal tariffs. In addition, in terms of sector-specific tariffs, in addition to steel,aluminum, and automobiles, which have already been imposed, investigations havealso begun on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, copper, lumber, medium and largetrucks, and important minerals. The objectives of tariff policy are diverse, but the main pillars are the elimination oftrade imbalances and the return of manufacturing to the country. Naturally, the way toimprove the trade balance is either to reduce imports or to increase exports. TheTrump administration believes that tariffs will lead to a decrease in imports byrelatively increasing the competitiveness of domestic products, and that if the non-tariff barriers of trading partners are successfully removed on the condition of loweringtariffs, exports can be expected to increase.Furthermore, there is also speculation thatcompanies that want to avoid tariffs will invest in the United States, and manufacturingindustries that have flowed overseas under globalization and neoliberalism will returnto the country. As a result, the domestic economy and employment will be revitalized,and national security will be strengthened by reducing dependency on overseas supplychains. For areas that are particularly important for national security,the governmentaims to secure domestic supply capacity by making full use of sector-specific tariffs. Inaddition, the government also aims to secure revenue through tariff revenue. According to the Commerce Department'sBureau of Economic Analysis, the UnitedStates' imports of goods in 2024 will be approximately $3.3 trillion, and if an average10% tariff is imposed, for example, a simple calculation shows that tax revenue ofapproximately $330 billion is expected. However, the introduction of newtariffs wouldlead to a decrease in imports, and there is still the possibility of lowering tariff ratesthrough bilateral negotiations with other countries, which would result in a decrease intax revenue, so some of the objectives of tariff policy are contradictory. The Trump administration was full of confidence until the announcement of thereciprocal tariffs, but recently it has been showing signs of waveri