Nextracker公司（NXT）：买入2025财年稳健收官预示2026财年上行潜力

Nextracker Inc(NXT US) EquitiesElectrical Equipment Buy:Solidend to FY25 presages upside to FY26 United States ◆Another solid earnings beat in Q4 FY25 caps year of marketshare gainsand solid project execution MAINTAIN BUY TARGET PRICE(USD)PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)67.0060.00 ◆Entry into eBOS market can add up to 30% incrementalrevenues and US regulatory headwind looks to be calming ◆Retain Buy and increase TP to USD67.00(was USD60.00)on model rollover and strongerbalance sheet Remarkably consistent earnings outperformance… Nextracker (NXT) continued its enviable track record ofsignificant earnings beats in Q4FY25, posting USD242m adj EBITDA (+23% vsVisible Alphaconsensus) on USD924msales (+11% vs consensus) with a Q4 margin of 26.2% only slightly down q-o-q, hencebetter thanweexpected (seeBuy: Another beat-and-raise quarter29 January). GAAP netincome of USD158m was +29% vsconsensus. NXT ended FY25 with USD766m in netcash (above expectations) and no debt. NXT has driven market share gains in FY25thanks to ongoing customer flight to quality and an extended product portfolio. … bodes well for FY26guidance, which looks underwhelming at first glanceNXT’sFY26 guidance ranges look underwhelmingat the midpoints (vs consensus):USD3.2-3.4bn sales(+4%), USD700-775m adj EBITDA(-2%),and USD445-503mGAAP net income(-4%). That said,NXT’sestablished track record of beatingexpectations leads us to believe this guidance isconservative.A YE backlog wellabove USD4.5bnthanks to Q4 book:bill>1 underpins visibility on execution in FY26. M&A into eBOS adjacency offers more scope for upside NXT announced the acquisition of electronic balance of systems (eBOS) provider Bentekfor USD78m,signallingentry into the eBOS market and its ongoing transition from atracker supplier towards a solar power technology platform provider. Bentek is among thetopthree to foureBOS suppliers in the US. Longerterm, NXT targets up to one third ofrevenues generated from non-tracker sales, implying robust growth potential. Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimates Sean McLoughlin*EMEA Head of Industrials ResearchHSBC Bank plcsean.mcloughlin@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 3464 US regulatory headwinds abating; retain Buy and increase TP to USD67.00We increase FY26/27e adj EBITDA by2%/9%,respectively,post Q4 results andintroduce FY28 estimates. Our50/50 DCF/relative valuation-derived TP of USD67rises from USD60.00previously due to model rollover andastronger, debt-free YEbalance sheet. With c22%impliedupside,we reiterate our Buy rating. With the firstdraft of the US reconciliation bill released on 12 May maintaining the 45Xmanufacturing tax credit, we see less scope for earnings pressure for NXT in FY26.We see further upsidecatalystsfrom any favourable changes for the US solar industryto the budget reconciliation bill from negotiations ahead of final approval by Congress. Jonathan Day*Analyst, IndustrialsHSBC Bank plcjonathan.day@hsbc.com+44 20 3359 1217 * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations HSBC Global Research Podcasts Listen to our insights Find out more Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must beread with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:Nextracker Inc Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of14 May 2025 Q4’25 results overview In Q4 FY25,Nextracker (NXT) posted USD242m adj.EBITDA (+24% vs cons USD196m) onUSD924m sales (+11% vs cons USD831m) with a Q4 margin of 26.2% +260bpahead ofexpectations. GAAP net income of USD158m was +27% vs consensus USD124m. Q4 wasboosted by USD75m of 45X manufacturing tax credits. Book:bill was >1 resulting in a YE backlog “significantlyoverUSD4.5bn”. NXT ended FY25 withUSD766m in net cash (above expectations) and announced the acquisition of electronic balanceof systems (eBOS) provider Bentek for USD78m, signalling entry into the eBOS market. For FY26 NXT guides for USD3.2-3.4bn sales (cons USD3.33bn), USD700-775m adj EBITDA(cons USD759m) and USD 445-503m GAAP net income (cons USD497m). The guidance looks underwhelmingto usvs consensus and may factor in more overseas salesin FY26, which are lower margin. That said, NXT has now established a firm track record ofbeating guidance so the market may conclude NXT is only guiding conservatively Changes to estimates In this report we rollover our model and introduce estimates for FY28. We increase our toplineestimates for FY26/27 by 8% as the company’s backlog of ‘significantly over’ USD4.5bn,book:bill > 1, and continuous growth in international pipeline provides greater confidence onrevenue recognition . As a result, our gross profit increases by 6%/8% for FY26e/27e but GPmarginlowersby 50bp for FY26e as the company continues to guide for structural GP marginlevel at low 30s. Adjusted EBITDA estima