光明乳业（600597）：坚持“新鲜战略”，期待经营反弹

Adheringto ‘Freshness Strategy,’Awaiting Operational Rebound Rating (Maintain):OVERWEIGHTTarget price (RMB):9.00 Huatai Research Annual Results Review 15 May 2025│China (Mainland) Food AnalystGONGYuanyueSAC No. S0570520100001SFC No. BQL737gongyuanyue@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228 Adhering to‘freshness strategy’,awaiting operational reboundBright Dairy’s(BD) 2024 revenue/attributable NP/recurring NPwereRMB24 ,278/722/170mn (-8.3/-25.4/-67.5%yoy); for4Q24, they were RMB+5,860/+610/-40mn(+0.8%/-6.0%/turning negative yoy), with the non-recurring loss mainly contributedbyaloss from eliminated cows (which led to 2024 non-operating expenses ofRMB320mn). For 1Q25,they wereRMB6,370/140/190mn (-0.8/-18.2/+2.5%yoy).For revenue, liquid milkcameunder sustained pressure in 2024, while drags fromanimal husbandry segmentwerenotable;forprofits, the 2024 recurring NPMdippedby1.3pp yoy to 0.7%, thenfor 1Q25edged upby0.1pp yoy to 3%. Lookingahead, as BD adheres toa‘freshness strategy’amidaslow domestic consumptionrecovery while advancing the low-temperature milk initiative nationwide, weexpectits subsequent revenue to improve.In terms of profits, as the company continuestooptimizesales-expense controls, weexpectits GPM-to-sales expense ratiomargin toimprovefurther. Moreover, as raw milk S/D dynamics rebalance, weexpectlossesfromeliminatedcowstonarrowyoyin2025.MaintainOVERWEIGHT. AnalystWANG KexinSAC No. S0570524020001SFC No. BVO215wangkexin019215@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228 Key data Liquidmilk businessstillconstrained;drag fromanimal husbandryByproduct,for2025,revenuesfromliquidmilk/otherdairyproducts/animal husbandry segments changed by-9.5/+5.9/-41.7%yoy to RMB14.17/7.79/1.02bn;for 4Q24, they changed by-10.4/+29.1/-30.0%yoy. Liquid-milk business wasunder sustained pressure, while animal husbandry products constituted a drag.For 1Q25, revenues from these segments changed by-6.3/+11.1/-55.4%yoy. Byregion,for2024,revenueswithinShanghai/outsideShanghai/fromoverseasregionswereRMB6.73/9.99/7.44bn(-5.4/-14.7/+1.6%yoy),reflectingrobustperformance in Shanghai (the home base for BD) and continued gains abroad. For4Q24, revenues from these regions changed by+1.5/+9.2/-1.7%yoy. By channel,for2024,directly-operated/distribution/otherchannelrevenueswereRMB5.06/18.99/0.11bn (-14.4/-5.7/+3.8%yoy).In2024, subsidiary Synlait (inwhich BDhas a65.3% stake)recordedrevenue of RMB7.44bn andanet loss ofRMB450mn(-52.0%yoy),owingtolocalinflationandrisingraw-materialprices/labor costs/financing costs. Source:Wind GPM/recurring NPM-0.9/+0.1pp yoy in 1Q25In 2024, the overall GPM fellby0.4pp yoy to 19.2% (4Q24: 18.9%, -4.3pp yoy).The GPMs of liquid milk/other dairy productsdropped by0.1/1.8pp yoy in 2024.For the year, thesales/administrative expense ratios edged up 0.2/0.3pp yoy to12.2/3.6%(4Q24:+0.8/-0.7ppyoyto11.3/3.3%).The2024attributableNPM/recurring NPM dippedby0.7/1.3pp yoy to3.0/0.7%, whereas the 1Q25 GPMfell 0.9pp yoy to 18.7%, withthesales/administrative expense ratios downby1.3/0.3pp yoy to 10.2/3.1% andtheattributable NPM/recurring NPM changing by-0.5/+0.1pp yoy to2.2/3.0%. Awaiting operational improvement; maintain OVERWEIGHTGivenademand rebound, raw-milk S/D dynamics rebalancing, and apotentialreduction in yoy loss from eliminated cows, we lift our profit forecasts,raisingour2025/2026/2027 EPS estimates by 25/8/-% to RMB0.45/0.48/0.51. We value thestock at 20x2025E PE, in line with its peers’average on Wind consensus, for ourtarget price of RMB9.00(previous: RMB8.41, on 26x 2024E PE). OVERWEIGHT. Risks: raw-material price volatility; soft macroeconomic performance; food-safetyissues. Source:Wind,Huatai Research Source:Wind,Huatai Research Full financials Disclaimers Analyst CertificationI/We, GONG Yuanyue, WANG Kexin, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be,directly or indirectly, related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report. General Disclaimers and DisclosuresThis research report has been prepared by Huatai Financial Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited (her einafter referred to as“HFHL”).The information herein is strictly confidential to the recipient. This report is intended for HFHL, its clients and associatedcompanies. Any other person shall not be deemed a client of the Company merely from his or her receipt of this report. This report is based on information deemed reliable and publicly available by HFHL, but HFHL and its associated company(ies)(collectively, hereinafter“Huatai”)makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. The opinions, assessments and projections contained herein only reflect the views and judgments at the issuance date. Huataimay issue research reports that contain inconsistent views, assessments and projections with those set out herein at differenttimes. The p