纸浆周报：基本面边际略改善，短期浆价区间反弹为主

内容要点供应端：纸浆周度产量46.57万吨，环比增加0.28万吨，环比增幅0.56%；阔叶浆产量21.54万吨，化机浆产量20.07万吨；预计本周阔叶浆产量约20.5万吨、化机浆产量约20万吨。需求端：生活用纸市场暂无利好，部分纸企出货滞缓，库存压力较大，预计本周生活用纸产量约27.5万吨；双胶纸市场个别产线有停机预期，但考虑新增装置生产趋稳，预期本周双胶纸产量约20.1万吨；铜版纸市场盈利稳定，开工变化不大，预计本周铜版纸产量约7.8万吨；白卡纸市场大部分停机纸厂延续，需求疲软，库存积累，预计本周白卡纸总产量约29万吨。库存端：周内港口库存呈去库走势，库存量为203.5万吨，环比减少6.4万吨（或-3.05%）；青岛港库存量131.8万吨；预计本周纸浆港口库存量约202万吨，环比变动不大。策略：港口库存去化，基本面边际略有改善但压力犹存，部分贸易商试探性上调报价，周末宏观情绪有所好转，本周纸浆期货主力价格区间反弹为主，但上方空间有限。 2341目录ONTENTSC 纸浆价格分析纸浆供应端分析纸浆需求端分析纸浆库存端分析 1.1现货浆价行情回顾——针稳阔弱1纸浆价格分析上周纸浆现货的市场价格呈针稳阔弱走势，其中山东地区针叶浆银星报价6200元/吨，环比持平；针叶浆凯利普报价6200元/吨，环比持平；针叶浆北木报价6300元/吨，环比持平；阔叶浆金鱼报价4100元/吨，环比下跌50元/吨（或-1.2%）；阔叶浆小鸟报价4050元/吨，环比下跌100元/吨（或-2.41%）；阔叶浆阿尔派报价4050元/吨，环比下跌100元/吨（-2.41%）。2022-01-012022-03-012022-05-012022-07-012022-09-012022-11-012023-01-012023-03-012023-05-012023-07-012023-09-012023-11-012024-01-012024-03-01图1：山东地区针叶木浆主流价（元/吨）资料来源：iFind，正信期货 2024-05-012024-07-012024-09-012024-11-012025-01-012025-03-012025-05-01北木凯利普银星3500.004000.004500.005000.005500.006000.006500.007000.007500.00图2：山东地区阔叶木浆主流价（元/吨）资料来源：iFind，正信期货 2022-01-012022-03-012022-05-012022-07-012022-09-012022-11-012023-01-012023-03-012023-05-012023-07-012023-09-012023-11-012024-01-012024-03-012024-05-012024-07-012024-09-012024-11-012025-01-012025-03-01阿尔派小鸟 1.1现货浆价行情回顾——本色浆、化机浆和非木浆持稳1纸浆价格分析山东地区化机浆昆河报价3900元/吨，环比持平；本色浆金星报价5350元/吨，环比持平；华南地区甘蔗浆报价4700元/吨，环比持平；西南地区竹浆报价5000元/吨，环比持平；东北地区苇浆报价4700元/吨，环比持平。2022-01-012022-03-012022-05-012022-07-012022-09-012022-11-012023-01-012023-03-012023-05-012023-07-012023-09-012023-11-012024-01-012024-03-01图3：山东地区化机浆、本色浆主流价（元/吨）本色浆金星资料来源：iFind，正信期货 2024-05-012024-07-012024-09-012024-11-012025-01-012025-03-012025-05-01化机浆昆河3500.004000.004500.005000.005500.006000.006500.007000.007500.002022-01-012022-03-012022-05-012022-07-012022-09-012022-11-012023-01-012023-03-012023-05-012023-07-012023-09-01图4：甘蔗浆、竹浆、苇浆主流价（元/吨）东北地区苇浆资料来源：iFind，正信期货 2023-11-012024-01-012024-03-012024-05-012024-07-012024-09-012024-11-012025-01-012025-03-012025-05-01西南地区竹浆华南地区甘蔗浆 1.2纸浆期货行情回顾——先抑后扬震荡整理1纸浆价格分析上周纸浆期货主力合约SP2507，整体行情在90点的区间内先抑后扬震荡整理，其中周一休市，周二早盘震荡下探，盘中有所反弹，收盘前再次下滑，周三高开高走震荡反弹，周四窄幅区间横盘整理，周五先扬后抑横盘震荡，最终周线收于5164元/吨，周度共上涨44元/吨（或+0.86%），成交量79.1万手，环比增加10.2万手，持仓量11.5万手，环比减少0.22万手。4500.005000.005500.006000.006500.007000.007500.008000.002021-01-01图5：纸浆期货主力合约收盘价（元/吨）资料来源：iFind，正信期货 2022-01-012023-01-012024-01-012025-01-01持仓量 0.0050000.00100000.00150000.00200000.00250000.00300000.00350000.00400000.00450000.00期货收盘价 1.3纸浆期现基差对比--贴水幅度略有所缩减1纸浆价格分析由于上周木浆现货价格持稳涨幅略小于纸浆期货价格上涨幅度，所以期现基差贴水幅度略有所缩减；针叶木浆与期货主力合约收盘价的基差贴水1036元/吨，贴水幅度与上周环比缩减44元/吨。4500.005000.005500.006000.006500.007000.007500.008000.002021-01-01图6：纸浆期货现货对比及基差（元/吨）资料来源：iFind，正信期货 2022-01-012023-01-012024-01-012025-01-01基差针叶浆银星主流价 -400-2000200400600800100012001400期货收盘价 1.4原木期货行情回顾——先扬后抑震荡下跌1纸浆价格分析原木期货主力合约2507，上周整体行情呈先扬后抑震荡下跌态势，其中周二低开高走小幅震荡反弹，周三高开冲高至805.5点后震荡回落，周四震荡下探最低至779点，周五在窄幅区间横盘整理，整体周震荡幅度为26.5元/立方米，最终周线收于784.5元/立方米，收出带长上影线的阳十字星K线，与上周收盘价环比下跌4.0元/立方米（或-0.51%），成交量6.10万手，环比增加3.05万手，持仓量3.07万手，环比增加0.2万手。6507007508008509009502024/11/182024/11/252024/12/22024/12/9图7:原木期货收盘价资料来源：iFind，正信期货 2024/12/162024/12/232024/12/302025/1/62025/1/132025/1/202025/1/272025/2/32025/2/102025/2/172025/2/242025/3/32025/3/102025/3/172025/3/242025/3/312025/4/72025/4/142025/4/21原木期货成交量（万手）原木期货收盘价（元/立方米） 0510152025302025/4/282025/5/5×10000 2.1纸浆周产量略有上升2纸浆供应端分析上周纸浆产量为46.57万吨，环比增加0.28万吨，环比增幅0.56%；其中阔叶浆产量21.54万吨，环比增加0.56万吨，环比增幅2.67%；化机浆产量20.07万吨，环比减少0.24万吨，环比降幅1.18%；预计本周国产阔叶浆样本产量约20.5万吨左右，预计本周化机浆样本产量约20万吨上下。2024-06-282024-07-052024-07-122024-07-192024-07-262024-08-022024-08-092024-08-162024-08-232024-08-302024-09-062024-09-132024-09-202024-09-272024-10-042024-10-112024-10-182024-10-252024-11-012024-11-082024-11-152024-11-222024-11-292024-12-062024-12-132024-12-202024-12-272025-01-032025-01-102025-01-172025-01-242025-01-312025-02-072025-02-142025-02-21图8：纸浆、阔叶浆产量（万吨）纸浆资料来源：隆众，钢联，正信期货 2025-02-282025-03-072025-03-14 2024-06-212025-03-212025-03-282025-04-042025-04-112025-04-182025-04-252025-05-022025-05-09阔叶浆05101520252024-06-212024-06-282024-07-052024-07-122024-07-192024-07-262024-08-022024-08-092024-08-162024-08-232024-08-302024-09-062024-09-132024-09-202024-09-272024-10-042024-10-112024-10-182024-10-252024-11-012024-11-082024-11-152024-11-222024-11-292024-12-062024-12-132024-12-202024-12-272025-01-032025-01-102025-01-172025-01-242025-01-312025-02-072025-02-142025-02-212025-02-282025-03-072025-03-142025-03-212025-03-282025-04-042025-04-112025-04-18图9：竹浆、化机浆产量（万吨）化机浆竹浆资料来源：隆众，钢联，正信期货 2.2阔叶浆周产能利用率有所回升，化机浆下降2纸浆供应端分析上周国产阔叶浆产能利率用为79.59%，环比上升2.06%；国产化机浆产能利率用为84.11%，环比下降0.98%。2024-07-052024-07-122024-07-192024-07-262024-08-022024-08-092024-08-162024-08-232024-08-302024-09-062024-09-132024-09-202024-09-272024-10-042024-10-112024-10-182024-10-252024-11-012024-11-082024-11-152024-11-222024-11-292024-12-062024-12-132024-12-202024-12-272025-01-032025-01-102025-01-172025-01-242025-01-312025-02-072025-02-142025-02-212025-02-282025-03-07图10：阔叶浆产能利用率（%）阔叶浆产量资料来源：隆众，钢联，正信期货 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2024-06-282025-03-142025-03-212