新一代基金标志着ESG的演变

© Oliver WymanThis article by Huw van Steenis is an expanded version of an op-ed that appeared in theFinancial Times on August 7, 2023.How can an investor make good returns and avoid pitfalls from the energy transition? Thisis arguably one of the most important and contentious questions in financetoday.It’s been a rough year for funds that focus on environmental, social, and governance factors,or ESG. Adverse politics, performance, and product design have all weighed on the sector.Once again, investors have learned the hard way thatinvesting by acronym is never anenduring way to allocate capital— as investors in technology, media, and telecom (TMT)funds and Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) funds before found out.Many ESG funds suffered a roughly three to four percentage point underperformancecompared with broad equity markets in 2022, according toOliver Wyman analysis. Theunderperformance helped prompt investors to undertake a more fundamental review ofthe investment attributes of ESG portfolios. Many were found wanting or oversimplistic. Theexchange-traded fund suffering the highest redemptions globally this year is a fund1thattracks ESG “leaders”(ESGU).Meanwhile, MSCI downgraded 95% of the AAA ratings it had given ESG ETFs this year as itreassessed funds for new regulations.Exhibit 1:ESG v1.0 ETFs inflows peaked in 2021 and have been in redemption for thelast year12,000Quaterly ESG fund flow analysis in USActive and passive ESG-related ETFs10,0008,0006,0004,000-4,000-6,0002,000-2,00002014ESG fund flows20152016201720182019202020212022Note: Responsible Investing ETFs include Integration/Engagement, Best-in-class & Positive screening, and Exclusions.Source: Broadridge Global Market Intelligence1US Sustainable Fund Flows Contract Again in Q2, but OutflowsEase 2023 © Oliver WymanWhat’s more, many ESG portfolios have found themselves inflexible to respond to changingmarket dynamics, such as the impact of the Ukrainian war.Nevertheless, investors remain keen to weave twenty-first century risks and opportunities,such as energy transition and energy security into their portfolios. Give five master chefs thesame ingredients and they will produce five distinctive meals. Any single, overly simplistic staticscorecard of how disparate factors might drive superior investment returns fails to reflectthe complexities and nuances of markets. The Ukrainian war has profoundly shifted publicpolicies, while the Inflation Reduction Act is starting to reshape the global investornarrative.A flurry of fund launches offers clues to where investors think the next opportunities maylie.First, investors are increasingly intrigued by“carbon improvers”— firms that areprogressively reducing their emissions footprint and generate returns. The first phase ofclimate-aware investing was to look for firms offering solutions and avoid polluters. Butthis approach overlooks a key issue.Greenhouse gas emissions are highly concentrated in a few key equity sectors that makeup about a third of the public equity market. These sectors account for about 90% of publiccompany emissions and about 60% of all global emissions, according to BridgewaterAssociates.2To simply exclude them is self-defeating to real-worlddecarbonization.Any single, overly simplistic static scorecard of how disparatefactors might drive superior investment returns fails toreflectthe complexities and nuances of markets2Where Do Greenhouse Gas Emissions Come From, and What Does That Mean for Investors? © Oliver WymanExhibit 3:The vast majority of global emissions are concentrated in a select numberofindustriesIndustries by order from larger to smaller global emissionsBankingInsuranceInvestment cosReal estatePharmaceuticalsHealthcareComputer softwareInternet servicesIT componentsSemiconductorsTelecomPersonal careRetailBusiness servicesAgricultureBuildingsWasteCombustionLand use change and forestryUtilitiesOil and gasMining and metalsConstructionChemicalsEngines and machineryAirlinesTransportationAuto and partsFood producersForestry and paperThe most emissions-intensive publicly traded companies(A x B) represent about 30% of market cap, 90% ofcorporate emissions, and 60% of global emissionsPublicly tradedcompanies (A)$120 trillion in publicequity market capMajor sources ofglobal emissions (B)50 Gt CO2e inGHG emissionsA x BAA x BBSource: BridgewaterThe next generation of climate-aware indices are leaning intoforward-looking measuresof decarbonization. Take the new MSCI Climate Action Index, launched late last year, whichincludes estimates of future reduction in emissions. One Finnish pension fund alone hasswitched $17 billion into funds that track this newindex.Second,there is growing interest in capturing value from investing in companiesenabling afaster transition. Brookfield, for instance, hopes to raise $20 billion for their second transitionfund, up from $15 billion from their first one. Meanwhile BlackRock recently launched aTransition-Enabling Metals ETF. Likewise, Gener