塑造可持续出行的未来

© Oliver WymanEXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe mobility ecosystem is rapidly evolving today, driven by far-ranging changes to the world we live in — fromsocial and economic to environmental and technological. Mobility is facing new challenges as a result — on boththe demand and supply side.Forces shaping mobility demand include increased urbanization, the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissionsthrough the transition to new sources of energy, and technology breakthroughs like connected vehicles andshort-range electric aircraft. Mobility consumers are changing too — shopping online, buying fewer cars, andexpecting more customizable, on-demand services. Meanwhile, on the supply side, the mobility landscape hasbecome more fragmented, as digitally focused new entrants jostle with traditional infrastructure managers forinvestment and market share.As a result of these changes, nine “megatrends” have been identified that could be disruptive to the futureevolution of the mobility ecosystem. Many involve rising technologies that could provide new avenuesfor mobility, from space-based and defense-to-civilian transfer technologies to smart devices and smartinfrastructure. Other trends focus on the need to better use urban space, improve customer experiences, andsupport the transition to more sustainable and equitable mobility access.With these trends in mind, we believe that the mobility transformation could be accelerated in three ways:better, more sustainable investment in fleets and infrastructure; leveraging technology to enhance traditionalmobility infrastructure or build new mobility solutions; and unlocking the full potential of mobility datamanagement to optimize transportation networks and support personalized mobility services.Lastly, we have identified the implications of these emerging trends for organizations in the mobility spaceto consider when forging their future roles. For instance, among the things to consider are the changingboundaries in the mobility ecosystem, new service offerings from mobility players, effective coordination ofpublic and private spheres, and the use of systemic policymaking to better support the transition. 2 © Oliver WymanA CHANGING MOBILITY ECOSYSTEMThe evolution of the mobility ecosystem historically has been driven by governments and major marketincumbents, as conventional mobility models are based on long-lived infrastructure, such as highways andrail lines, which require large-scale investment. But major changes in today’s social, economic, environmental,and technology spheres are putting pressure on the mobility ecosystem to rapidly evolve, with new challengesemerging for mobility on both the demand and supply sides.Urbanization and densification are increasing — 60% of the world’s population will live in cities by the end of thedecade. Almost 600 million people (nearly the population of North America) are expected to move to cities by 2030.Climate change and the energy transitionare becoming a core focus for governments worldwide. Drasticaction is required to meet current climate commitments, and the transportation sector, which accounts for 23%of worldwide emissions, is in dire need of decarbonization.Technological breakthroughsare occurring at a record pace. For example, this past year, an electric verticaltake-off and landing aircraft (EVTOL) obtained type certification in China, while Toyota announced that it is closeto mass producing solid-state batteries, which could revolutionize the EV sector.The pandemic has vastly expandedremote workingand increased the appeal of a flexible work-life balance.While this has reduced commuting, “workations” — a combination of work and vacationing, have increased,leading tochanges in travel patternsfor working-age adults.E-commerceis booming, accounting for an estimated 22% of sales in 2022 (versus 15% in 2019), according toMorgan Stanley.7On the one hand, this has increased demand for last-mile services; on the other, it reducespersonal car and public transport flows to brick-and-mortar retailers.Car ownershipalso is declining, in favorof mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) solutions:Oliver WymanMobility Forum forecasts 50% of ground mobilitywill involve shared vehicles by 2030. Finally,customers themselves are evolving,with a growing focus onindividual needs, as they become accustomed to customizable, on-demand services.At the same time, thesupply landscapehas become more fragmented, with new entrants from sectors outsideof transportation gaining relevance, thanks to digital technologies and an increasing focus on services. Whilemajor incumbents have historically based their success on developing and managing infrastructure, multipleplayers are taking on new roles in the industry by focusing on new and digitally enabled mobility services.1United Nations — World Population Prospects2Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — Climate Change 2022; Mitigation of Climate Change3Aviation International News — China Approves Ehang EH216-S as Worl