探索澳大利亚新货币秩序的影响

© Oliver WymanDear Reader,The global financial system transformed after the globalfinancial crisis in response to a unique policy contextthat lasted roughly a dozen years, ending only recently.Monetary policy targeted low or ultra-low interest ratesacross most of the world and central bank balance sheetsexpanded dramatically. A major program of regulatoryreform added to the pressures forchange.These forces reshaped the financial system in profoundways, affecting liquidity and funding structures, capital levels, the amount of interest raterisk in the system, and the growth of different forms ofcredit.The period also brought significant shifts in the roles of competitors in finance, with thegrowth of non-bank financial institutions, the rise of regional and domestic banks in someparts of the world, and increasing challenges with cross-border and internationalbanking.What does the futurehold?Whether or not you believe we have moved into a longer period of inflation taming, highinterest rates and lower liquidity, it is clear that “Low for Long” is over. This represents amajor paradigm shift which will undoubtedly also reshape the financial system in the comingyears. Do we understand the possible scenarios before us? Do we retain the expertise in theindustry to manage through these scenarios after two decades of Low for Long? Who will thewinners and losersbe?In our State of Financial Services work this year on the New Monetary Order, we explorethese questions. Our analyses will look at the dynamics of different regions and segmentsin a series of papers and conclude with our global perspectives. Here is our AustralianPerspectives paper on the New Monetary Order. We hope you enjoy theresearch.Sincerely,Ted MoynihanManaging Partner and Global Head of FinancialServices © Oliver WymanExecutive SummaryIn the aftermath of the global financial crisis (GFC), the world entered a prolonged period ofdeclining interest rates known as the “Low for Long” era. In Australia, the Reserve Bank ofAustralia cash rate consistently declined throughout the period, bottoming out at 0.10% inNovember 2020 in response to thepandemic.This paradigm shifted with the onset ofrapid interest rate hikes in 2022, heraldinga “New Monetary Order.” With the firstmajor rate tightening cycle in more than20 years upon us, it is natural to questionhow the financial sector and broadereconomy will be impacted. To understandthis, we need to revisit how the Low forLong period has shaped the Australianfinancial sector and the provision ofcredit.During the Low for Long era, the lendingmarket became increasingly divided intoa more regulated, low-risk market andless regulated pockets of higher risk.Major domestic banks became moreconservative in their risk selection andzeroed in on profitable and fast-growingmortgage lending. Guided by regulatorychanges after the GFC, they also bolsteredtheir financial strength through improvedcapital levels and quality, as well as a greaterreliance on more stable deposit fundingand higher liquid assets, making themsignificantly stronger than before the GFC.Meanwhile, new players have establishedthemselves in lending niches such as smallbusiness lending and consumer credit.In corporate and institutional lending,foreign banks have grown their marketshare presence, and private debt hasbeen growing strongly from a lowbase.In an environment characterized byheightened risk and diminished growthprospects, these market dynamics willput firms to the test. For the majors, corehome lending growth is slowing andintense competition has eroded profitmargins, forcing them to eye growthin new areas. Business lending is a keyfocus, with greater margins and potentialheadroom for growth; however, a collectiveshift here risks eroding margins as hasbeen experienced in mortgage lending.For more specialized lending modelsoutside of the major banks, higher ratesare likely to increase credit losses, whichin turn might create funding challenges,as experienced during the GFC. Moreresilient funding models for leading non-bank lenders might help them weathera credit downturn better thanbefore.How superannuation funds and globalprivate capital providers will respondto higher rates adds to the uncertainty.While the private debt market is currentlysmall in Australia, there are severalreasons to think it might grow rapidly.There’s increasing demand on both theborrower and investor side, and thismarket appears well-suited to meet thelarge credit needs anticipated for climatetransition and infrastructureinvestments. Scenario 4: Private debt in themainstream.In this scenario, superfunds,asset managers, and global privateequity firms would fill structural lendinggaps in more specialized lendingsegments and play a central role infunding Australia’s climatetransition.Strategic decisions made now in response tothe current set of challenges will determinethe success of individual players, and theindustry as a whole. There are severalno-regrets moves each player cant