探索欧洲的新货币秩序

© Oliver WymanDear Reader,The global financial system transformed after the globalfinancial crisis in response to a unique policy that lastedroughly a dozen years, ending onlyrecently.This period of expansionary monetary policy, coupledwith a significantly evolved regulatory environment, hada strong impact on the level of debt in the system andhow that debt was distributed across the various marketparticipants. These forces have reshaped the financialsystem in profound ways, affecting liquidity and fundingstructures, capital levels, the amount of interest rateriskin the system, and the growth of different forms ofcredit.In Europe, bank balance sheets remained stable and de-risked and return on assets declined,impacting bank profitability. Non-bank financial institutions assumed a more important roleas financers, gaining market share in lending from banks and holding the riskier (and moreprofitable) part of the assets. Central bank balance sheets quadrupled, and governments tookadvantage of low rates to raise record levels of debt to fund reforms, social expenditures, andeconomic stimulus measures needed to navigate multiplecrises.What does the futurehold?Whether or not you believe the world has moved into a longer period of inflation, it is clear that theera known as Low for Long is over. This represents a major paradigm shift that will undoubtedlyhave profound implications on the financial system and various market participants. They will verylikely have to adapt to higher interest rates, lower liquidity, revalued assets, and higher cost ofrisk.What are the implications for banks, insurers, private equity, and non-bank financial corporations?What considerations apply to government economic and fiscal policies? What is the call foraction?In our State of Financial Services work on the New Monetary Order, we explore these questions indetail. In past editions we analyzed the dynamics in the United States and Asia; this paper focuseson our European perspectives. We hope you enjoy theresearch.Sincerely,Elie FarahManaging Partner–Head of Financial ServicesEurope © Oliver W y m anExecutive SummaryThe global financial crisis of 2008 marked the beginning of almost 15 years ofexpansionary monetary policy in Europe, the United States, and other developedcountries, commonly referred to as the Low for Long era.Quickly realizing that simplylowering rates was not sufficient to counter deflationary tendencies, central banks appliedunconventional monetary policy (UMP) strategies, including negative interest rates, large-scaleasset purchasing programs such as quantitative easing (QE), and forward guidance to assuremarket participants of a very accommodative monetary environment in the mediumterm.In the eurozone, one of the objectivesof UMP was to prevent fragmentationby maintaining low borrowing rates formember states, considering the fiscaland debt challenges faced by severalcountries. Originally envisioned to beonly of a temporary nature, these policiespersisted for a decade and a half as inflationremained low and economic growthExhibit 1: The eurosystem’s balance sheet quadrupled since the GFC2000–2022, Trillion €024680001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22Source: ECB, Oliver Wyman analysis 2remained muted. The European CentralBank’s (ECB) interventions were even furtherexpanded starting from 2020 to mitigate theimpact of the COVID-19 crisis and providebreathing space for governments, banks,corporates, and households. As a result,the eurosystem’s balance sheet quadrupledduring the Low for Longperiod. Which mandates central bankspursueIn Europe, central banks’ primary mandate relates to price stability. Low and stable inflationmakes corporates and households more confident and thus more inclined to make financialdecisions such as borrowing, spending, and investing from a long-term perspective thatfavors sustained economic growth and the stability of the financialsystem.Such mandates are provided for by law or even by a country’s constitution, as in thefollowingexamples:•ECB:“maintain price stability. This means making sure that inflation remains low, stableand predictable. The Governing Council considers that price stability is best maintainedby aiming for 2% inflation over the mediumterm.”•Bank of England (BoE):“Our mission is to promote the good of the people of the UnitedKingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability. To keep inflation low andstable, the Government sets us an inflation target of 2%. This helps everyone plan forthefuture.”•Swiss National Bank (SNB):“The SNB conducts the country’s monetary policy as anindependent central bank. Its primary goal is to ensure price stability, while taking dueaccount of economic developments. In so doing, it creates an appropriate environmentfor economic growth. The SNB equates price stability with a rise in consumer prices ofless than 2% perannum.”The Low for Long period was markedby a significant transformation ofEurope’s financial sy