驾驭新货币秩序

© Oliver WymanDear Reader,The global financial system transformed after the globalfinancial crisis in response to a unique policy contextthat lasted roughly a dozen years, ending only recently.Monetary policy targeted low or ultra-low interest ratesacross most of the world and central bank balancesheets expanded dramatically. A major program ofregulatory reform added to the pressures forchange.These forces reshaped the financial system in profoundways, affecting liquidity and funding structures, capitallevels, the amount of interest rate risk in the system, andthe growth of different forms ofcredit.The period also brought significant shifts in the roles of competitors in finance, with thegrowth of non-bank financial institutions, the rise of regional and domestic banks in someparts of the world, and increasing challenges with cross-border and internationalbanking.What does the futurehold?Whether or not you believe the world has moved into a longer period of inflation taming,high interest rates, and lower liquidity, it is clear that “Low for Long” is over. This representsa major paradigm shift that will undoubtedly also reshape the financial system in the comingyears. Do we understand the possible scenarios before us? Do we retain the expertise in theindustry to manage through these scenarios after a dozen years of Low for Long? Who willthe winners and losersbe?In our State of Financial Services work this year on the New Monetary Order, we explorethese questions. Our analyses will look at the dynamics of different regions and segmentsin a series of papers, and conclude with our global perspectives. Here is our US Perspectivespaper on the New Monetary Order. We hope you enjoy theresearch.Sincerely,TedMoynihanManaging Partner and Global Head of FinancialServices © Oliver W y m anExecutiveSummaryThe dynamics of the financial sector shifted seismically when Low for Long monetary policy —a roughly 12-year period marked by low interest rates around the world — abruptly ended inthe second quarter of 2022 and moved toward what we call the New Monetary Order. To date,the transition to this New Monetary Order has been marked by central bank actions to combatinflation, primarily by rapidly raising interest rates and shrinking their balance sheets. Thechallenges this transition poses began to emerge in early 2023,1when Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)and several other firms with business models too heavily reliant on accommodative monetarypolicy floundered, illustrating the risks of the New Monetary Order as well as the importanceof financial institutions adapting to this paradigmshift.A clear view of the future requires a nuancedunderstanding of the deep and broadeffects of the Low for Long period on thefinancial sector’s evolution. Accommodativemonetary policy providing low interestrates and abundant liquidity affected notonly the sector’s structure and competitivedynamics, but also the views and behaviorsof executives and other stakeholders.Human beings, and the organizations theycreate and manage, find it difficult to adjustto paradigm shifts, so it is not surprisingthat the financial system is adapting onlyslowly to the exit from Low for Long. Inaddition to monetary policy, anotherimportant driver of evolution in this periodhas been the plethora of tougher bankingregulations, with a particularly significantimpact on global systemically importantbanks (GSIBs). In this paper, we analyzethe effects of Low for Long on the financialsector and draw out four key takeawayswith forward-looking implications for thecomplex current environment andbeyond.1Douglas J. Elliott,The 2023Key Policy Issues in Finance(Oliver WymanInsights, February2023). 2KEY TAKEAWAY1Anemic private sector creditgrowthPrivate sector credit growth came to ahalt during Low for Long compared withprevious multidecade trends, falling from a5% compounded annual growth rate in realterms from 1960–2007 to a 0% growth ratefrom 2008–2021, despite historically lowinterest rates. Significant deleveraging byboth households and businesses followingthe global financial crisis (GFC) shrankprivate sector borrowing. Between 2008and 2012, US household debt decreased byroughly $1.4 trillion, while credit to non-financial businesses dropped by more than$600 billion between 2008 and2010.While growth recovered in consumer andbusiness lending, it remained sluggish inresidential real estate, and overall growthdid not reach pre-crisis levels. In thislow-growth environment, in addition toextending duration (which created ALM and high-yield bonds outstanding bothmore than doubled, while private debtassets under management increasedby more than five times. This growthprovided a financing opportunity for somebanks, particularly GSIBs, whose lendingexposure to NBFIs grew by a factor ofmore than 10 during Low forLong.On the other hand, consumer lending was abright spot for banks, substantially offsettingthe loss of market share elsewhere. Overall,the shares of private sector credit remai