导航和降低供应链风险的5个关键策略

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYGlobal supply chains are efficient but fragile. Geopoliticaltensions, natural disasters, and the Covid-19 pandemicall caused major disruptions to global supply chains inrecentyears.China remains integral to global supply chains. Given the sizeof China’s domestic market and the fact there is no simplesubstitute for the country’s export sector, it is difficult forforeign companies to fully decouple fromChina.However, global companies are adopting a range of strategiesto reduce their exposure to China. These strategies include“China + 1” or reshoring strategic products and parts,especially in sensitivesectors.Foreign companies need to understand their current riskexposure. They also need to prepare a Plan B, particularlyin the event geopolitical tensionsworsen.In this update of our report published in 2023, we identifya series of no-regret moves companies can take to de-risksupply chains. Theseinclude:•Understand geopolitical riskexposure•Decide which products to relocate•Choose markets forrelocation•Ensure regular checking of newsuppliers•Optimize inventory and cashflows © Oliver WymanDISRUPTIONS TO GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS COULD CONTINUEPolitics, natural disasters, and a pandemic are among the events that have reshaped supplychains over the past several years, revealing their vulnerabilities. US-China trade tensionsresulted in significant tariff hikes, and the pandemic disrupted supply and transportnetworks. In addition, the war between Russia and Ukraine that began in 2022 resultedin shortfalls of food and other raw materialproducts.Exports of goods as a share of global GDP had already peaked at around 50% more thana decade ago and have remained below these levels since (Exhibit1). That share has beenvolatile, but is unlikely to rise beyond previous highs. Global offshoring was already slowingpre-pandemic, and currently trade barriers are rising amidst geopolitical tensions andcountries are seeking to redevelop national industrialcapabilities.The risk of future supply disruption is also high. The recent attacks on shipping in the RedSea and a severe drought in the Panama Canal were timely reminders of how disruptions canbe unexpected. The magnitude of disruptions could also be more significant if geopoliticaltensions worsen, or other unforeseen eventsemerge.Exhibit 1: Global trade as a share of global GDPGlobalfinancial crisisChina'sWTO entryGlobalpandemic25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202023Source: International Monetary Fund, World Trade Organization © Oliver WymanTHREE STRATEGIES TO REDUCE SUPPLY CHAIN RISKSWe are seeing firms responding to the current risks to global supply chains by undertakingthree principalstrategies.China + 1The global apparel sector adopted a “China + 1” strategy over a decade ago. The strategyoriginated in response to rising costs and labor shortages, as well as to shorten supply chainsand their respective response times. Bangladesh and Turkey, for example, have been able tocapture a growing share of global clothingexports.However, a wider range of consumer and capital goods companies, particularly Americanfirms, have adopted a similar policy in recent years. Rather than reducing costs, their mainmotive has been to build greater resilience in their supply chains in the event of worseningtensions between China and the US orEurope.The China + 1 strategy assumes that in addition to China, a foreign company will also sourcea growing share of its products from one or more suppliers from other countries, such asVietnam, Mexico, or Poland. The relative share differs for each company, but the strategyimplies that a share of the company’s products still originate inChina.In China for ChinaChina is a vast market for many products, often the largest globally. In the automobile sector,for example, over 26 million cars are sold in China annually, nearly twice the number in the US.For these kinds of products, foreign companies will continue to manufacture in China for saleto Chineseconsumers.The “In China for China” strategy assumes firms will retain or even expand their local supplybase. Doing so ensures it is insulated from global trade tensions, is more aligned with nationalpolicies, and can offer localized products to target the Chinese market, all while still beingopportunistically available forexport.Reshoring strategic products and partsReshoring is a third, albeit slower moving strategy given the challenges of building newmanufacturing capacity in developed markets, especially in a world of higher interest rates.However, government policies ranging from subsidies to bans are accelerating the speed atwhich the manufacture of specific products is returning to homemarkets.In the long term, investment in automation and other manufacturing technologies that reducecosts and improve efficiencies will make the case for reshoring more compelling. Moreover, asthe domestic supply base deepens, companies will find it easier to reshore production as