提高供应链风险和弹性的关键策略

© Oliver WymanEXECUTIVE SUMMARYSupply chain risk didn’t magically go away when the COVID-19 pandemic ended. Years on, itcontinues to be a significant and ever-evolving disruptive force across the world. Businessesof all stripes must contend with a myriad of both new and ongoing operational challenges:geopolitical conflicts such as the war in Ukraine, shortages of critical materials like semiconductors,and disruptions in global trade brought on by the Baltimore bridge collapse and other events. Theimpacts of these difficulties — cost pressure, lost sales, and tight working capital, just to name afew — can pose an existential threat to anyorganization.Combating the threat effectively is only possible through a comprehensive strategy thatconsiders the entire flow of goods and how all parts of the supply chain are interconnected. Toooften in recent years we have seen companies take on risk resilience solely through reactivemeasures, pulling levers intended primarily to stabilize their operations as quickly as possible.Because it doesn’t address the entire supply chain holistically, this approach is not sufficientfor de-risking. These companies do some things right, but neglect others, preventing them fromachievingstability.Some organizations, however, are taking a more proactive, forward-looking path, making investmentswhere necessary to avoid and mitigate potential supply chain disruption in the first place.TheOliver Wyman Forum recently found that 59% of CEOs of companies listed on the New YorkStock Exchange are currently de-risking or diversifying their supply chains. Critically for such efforts,many businesses heavily utilize data in their decision-making, taking advantage of cutting-edgetools that can help identify and predict impending issues throughout the entire valuechain.To better understand how companies perceive risk and prepare to face the challenges ahead,we surveyed well over 100 executives from nine industries across North America and Europe.Our goal was to address a few keyquestions:•What is the level of maturity of organizations with regard to risk andresilience?•What strategies to increase resilience have theyimplemented?•Which of these measures and tools are the most important for thefuture?The results of the survey revealed that companies are widely divergent in their prioritization,preparation, and execution around managing supply chain issues and developing long-termresilience. From the responses we identified the organizations that stood out from their peers(“Leaders”) and analyzed the traits that separatedthem.We found that Leaders protect sales via advanced demand and supply management, maintainprofit margin through better cost control, and optimize working capital through differentinventory policies. They also purposely invest a meaningful share of their profit back intomanaging risk and improving operational resilience, and reduce internal barriers to execute ontheir resilience strategies, often with a mandate from their board. Finally, they rely on severaladvanced levers to better manage risk, including using generative AI for internal and externalmonitoring, implementing digital solutions to augment foundational processes like inventorymanagement, and redesigning products to reduce reliance on criticalparts. © Oliver WymanINTRODUCTIONConducted during the first quarter of 2024, our survey assessed respondents’ businesseson a range of criteria, including past/current performance, degree of supply chain visibility,strategic maturity, organizational maturity, and technology usage. Based on the results, weplaced them in threecategories:•Leaders (31%):Those that made significant improvement in supply chain resilience andare ahead of their target andpeers•Mid of the Pack (38%):Those that made few improvements and/or did not achievetheir targets•Laggers (31%):Those that made no improvement and were significantly behind theirpeers andtargetsLeaders ready their organizations for disruptions as Laggers do but also proactivelythink through the possibilities of disruption and how and where they may be exposed.For example, are all their goods running on rail lines, flowing through a country that isbeset by political instability, or dual sourced from suppliers that rely on the same port?Successful organizations will identify and address these kinds of issues before they canbecomeproblematic.Having that foresight pays off — literally. Between 2018 and 2023, Leaders increased theirrevenue by 23%, or 8 percentage points more than Laggers did. Leaders also were betterduring that period at absorbing cost increases (by applying the right flexibilization levers)and managing their working capital (through smarter inventorystrategies).Exhibit 1: Financial performance of Leaders compared with LaggersPerformance(from to 2018–2023)RevenueProfitWorkingcapitalSource: Oliver Wyman Global Risk and Resilience SurveyThrough an analysis of the responses, we determined that leaders differentiate themselvesfrom the