跟踪投资级债券资金流出情况

Tracking IG outflows Credit Analysis 21 April 2025 Tracking IG outflowsHG mutual funds and ETFs have reported sizable outflows on each day between April 4 Credit StrategyUnited StatesCross Product thand April 17th. As a result, we are now tracking an average daily outflow of -$1.6bn forApril, down from a +$0.5bn average daily inflow in March and +$1.6bn average dailyinflow in February (Exhibit 2,Exhibit 3). This pace of outflows implies a -$35bn outflowfor the full month of April–similar to the peak outflows during May and June 2022(Exhibit 4). Yuri SeligerCredit StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 7209yuri.seliger@bofa.com Outflows are much bigger than expectedFlows typically follow returns, and the large outflows in 2022 were roughly in line with Sohyun Marie LeeCredit StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 7217sohyun.lee@bofa.com the big drop in bond prices. The outflows so far in April have instead been much largerthan implied by the returns (Exhibit 1). That likely means that the outflows are nowdriven by the news flow instead. More volatility could, therefore, support furtheroutflows even if Treasury yields stabilize. This risk of prolonged outflows certainlymatters as mutual funds and ETFs are the second largest holder of corporate bonds(~25%), only behind foreign investors (Exhibit 5). In this report Daily supply snapshotDaily dealer inventories updateDaily HG fund flowsDaily foreign demand tracker Exhibit 1: April outflows have been much bigger than expectedThe outflows from HG funds / ETFs over the past two weeks have been much larger than expected based on bond returns. In contrast, the big outflows in 2022 were roughly in line with returns. Link to notable research Global Economic Viewpoint: Surfingthe tariff wave BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 9 to 11. Exhibit 3: Average daily flow for April: -$1.6bnThat’s down from +$0.6bn average daily inflow in March and +$1.6bn average Exhibit 2: HG flows were negative each day since April 4th.Outflows from ETFs peaked on April 7 and 8, while outflows from funds have been more steady since April 7th. daily inflows in February. Exhibit 4: The pace of outflows MtD implies a -$35bn outflow for the full monthThis pace of outflows implies a -$35bn outflow for the full month of April – similar to the peak outflows during May and June 2022. Exhibit 5: Holders of US corporate bondsThe Fed estimates that mutual funds / ETFs own 25% of US corporate bonds (IG + HY, but mostly IG given the relative size). That is the second largest after foreign investors (29%). Daily supply snapshot US IG issuance totaled $5bn across 1 deal today, $5bn WTD and $55.3bn MTD. Theaverage new issue concession was 7bps today, while the average break performancewas 1.7bps tighter today. This week’s new issues are trading 2bps tighter on averagefrom pricing. Exhibit 6: Recent new issue pricing and new issue concessionsList of new issues in the IG corporate bond market today along with performance metrics. Daily dealer inventories update Below we estimate dealer inventories for the IG corporate bonds based on TRACE data.The actual inventories of US issuer bonds based on NY Fed survey, as well as theestimated change since the latest Fed report are plotted inExhibit 7. We estimate thecorresponding DV01 equivalent inExhibit 8. More details by sector and maturity areavailable inExhibit 9andExhibit 10. Finally, note that the data for the current date isthrough about 4:40 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. We estimate IG dealer inventories of US issuer bonds increased to -$0.4bn currently from -$3.3bn on Apr-09. BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Exhibit 8: Estimated dealer inventory DV01 for IG corporate bonds.We estimate IG dealer inventory DV01 of US issuer bonds increased to -$1.2mn currently from -$4.1bn on Apr-09. Exhibit 9: Estimated changes in IG dealer inventories by maturity and broad sector.We estimate IG dealer inventories increased $619mn today and increased $786mn over the prior week. Exhibit 9: Estimated changes in IG dealer inventories by maturity and broad sector.We estimate IG dealer inventories increased $619mn today and increased $786mn over the prior week. Daily HG fund flows We define our high grade flows as a combination of "bond" and "corporate bond" fixedincome funds and ETFs domiciled in the US (and investing in any currency, although themajority is invested in USD). We also exclude funds primarily focused on Government,HY, EM and MBS from the sample. The "bond" category refers to the broad high grademarket, which includes Treasuries, mortgages and agencies in addition to corporatebonds. This category accounts for the majority of AUM and flows. Exhibit 12: