布里斯托尔-迈耶斯-史奎布公司（BMY）2025年第一季度初步分析：传统产品组合推动业绩超预期

1Q25 earnings came in ahead of GS and VA consensus, driven by a revenue beatfrom Legacy products. While gross margins decreased from 75.3% to 72.9% on anon-GAAP basis, primarily due to product mix, the quarter also underscoredmomentum behind products in the Growth product portfolio which featured a sizablebeat from Cobenfy, reflecting a stronger than expected early US launch. Thecompany is increasing its full-year revenue guidance from approximately $45.5 billionto a range of approximately $45.8 billion to $46.8 billion, reflecting the strongperformance of the Growth Portfolio, better-than-expected Legacy Portfolio sales inthe first quarter of 2025, and a favorable impact of approximately $500 millionrelated to foreign exchange rates. Similar to peers (MRK, JNJ), the guidancerevisions include the estimated impact of current tariffs on U.S. products shipped toChina, but do not account for any potential pharmaceutical sector tariffs. Asad Haider, CFA+1(212)902-0691|asad.haider@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC Nick Jennings+1(415)249-7412|nick.jennings@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jeff Su+1(212)357-9930|jeff.su@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC Regarding specific products, we note stronger than expected sales of Cobenfy,demonstrating traction for a critical launch, as well as Opdivo, Opdualag, Breyanziand Abecma, while slight underperformance of Camzyos, Sotyktu and Zeposia. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of thisreport. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg ACcertification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go towww.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as researchanalysts with FINRA in the U.S. Exhibit 2: Updated FY25 Guidance: Source: Company data Sales:BMY raised its FY25 sales guidance from ~$45.5bn to ~$45.8bn- $46.8bn,representing an ~$800mn or ~1.8% at the midpoint. Of the $800mn, managementnoted that $500mn was from updated FX outlook, with the rest of the increase comingfrom strong performance the Growth portfolio and better-than-expected Legacy portfoliosales in the first quarter. Topics in focus for the earnings call:We anticipate focus will center on1) Cobenfy - additional details on ARISE and color on launch metrics;2) Tariffs -additional color onthe estimated impact of tariffs noted;3) Guidance update -puts and takes amongstthe balance of the legacy and growth portfolio, and 4)the catalyst path, following aseries of recent setbacks. Valuation and Risks Valuation:Our 12-month price target of $55 is derived from a 9.0x multiple on our 2026adjusted EPS. Risks: Upside risks:n Higher than expected revenue growth from the growth portfolio (Cobenfy,oCamzyos, Reblozyl, Opdualag, Breyanzi),Smaller than forecast negative impact to legacy business revenues based onoLOEs and IRA implementation as well as more significant flow-through ofcost-cutting effortsStronger than expected outcomes from key pipeline programs (e.g. Cobenfyoin adjunctive schizophrenia and Alzheimer’s disease psychosis) Downside risks:n Slower than expected revenue growth from the Growth portfolio (Cobenfy,oCamzyos, Reblozyl, Opdualag, Breyanzi)Greater than forecast negative impact to base business revenues based onoLOEs and IRA implementationNegative outcomes from key pipeline programs.o Neutral Disclosure Appendix Reg AC We, Asad Haider, CFA, Nick Jennings and Jeff Su, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal viewsabout the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly orindirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research division. GS Factor ProfileThe Goldman Sachs Factor Profile provides investment context for a stock by comparing key attributes to the market (i.e. our universe of rated stocks) and its sector peers. The four key attributes depicted are: Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple (e.g. valuation) and Integrated (a composite of Growth,Financial Returns and Multiple). Growth, Financial Returns and Multiple are calculated by using normalized ranks for specific metrics for each stock. Thenormalized ranks for the metrics are then averaged and converted into percentiles for the relevant attribute. The precise calculation of each metric mayvary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region, but the standard approach is as follows: Growthis based on a stock’s forward-looking sales growth, EBITDA growth and EPS growth (for financial stocks, only EPS and sales growth), wit