皇冠控股（CCK）：2025年第一季度回顾罕见亮点；防御性长期赢家

1Q25 Recap: Rare Bright Spot; DefensiveSecular Winner In an uncertain macro backdrop, CCK is a rare bright spot with demandaccelerating with cans taking share, and the mkt has gotten tight in NA &Europe, boding well for pricing for the next round of contracts. With a steadydose of buybacks & defensive profile, CCK is one of our top picks & stock lookscheap (8.2x 2025E EV/EBITDA). Conservative guide factoring macro uncertainty.Despite the impressive 1Q beat of $0.43 & 2Qset 4c above consensus, CCK only increased its 2025 guide by $0.10 to account for the macrouncertainty & tariffs (<$30 mil direct & indirect earnings headwind), particularly in Transit, as wellas Asia, & Mexico. That said, if CCK delivers on its 2Q guide and if EPS is flat in 2H, mgmt notedit should come in at the high end of its FY guide. PPI and other inflationary headwinds in NA areexpected to be ~$30 mil headwind in 2025 starting in 2Q25, but NA & Brazil demand has beenstronger than anticipated with strength continuing through Apr, and FX is an incremental tailwind.CCK maintained its FCF guide of ~$800 mil to reflect a WC headwind (-$75 mil) driven by thestronger demand in Americas & Europe, but the FCF guide looks conservative. CCK took advantageof the pull back in its stock, repurchasing over $200 mil of shares in 1Q, and expects to buy another~$100 mil through the rest of 2025. NA, Brazil & EMEA demand remains strong.CCK's NA vols were up ~2%, benefiting from beingoverweight non-alcoholic bevs, but CCK lagged the mkt (~3%) largely due to tough comps. Softdrinks & energy bevs improved with beer remaining soft in NA, but other alcoholic products wereoffsetting weakness in mass beer. With the pullback in the LME, the 1c anticipated impact per canin NA from metal tariffs have come down, so the risk on demand destruction is more manageable.CCK saw strong growth in Brazil (+11%), with the company growing faster than the mkt (+3-4%)based on its customer mix. Mgmt expects another solid year in Brazil, and its NA vols to be in linewith the mkt for 2025 and to outperform in 2026 (likely share gains). Echoing Ardagh's comments,CCK noted can supply is getting tight in NA & Europe, with mgmt seeing the substrate mix shifttowards cans accelerate in Europe. CCK alluded to potentially needing to add capacity, but wantedto make sure the returns would be compelling. Transit demand remains subdued.Transit earnings was up 2% sequentially, with the businessseeing stability despite subdued industrial demand. Mgmt noted quoting activity has been high, butorders for equipment & longer lead time items have been on pause with customers being carefulwith capital budgets. Transit is expected to be the most impacted by tariffs, but customers arealready running lean on labor and as industrial demand returns, customers will have to decidebetween bringing back the labor or automating the back end of their production lines. Given thesignificant costs taken out already, Transit has significant earnings torque to a recovery. Philip Ng, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7369 | png@jefferies.comJohn Dunigan * | Equity Associate(212) 284-2343 | jdunigan@jefferies.comFiona Shang * | Equity Associate(212) 336-7447 | fshang@jefferies.com The Long View: Crown Holdings Investment Thesis / Where We Differ •Quality defensive growth name with strong momentum in beverage cangrowth as global volumes inflect sharply from the pack mix shift toaluminum cans.•We see a path for the multiple with volume growth ahead of BALL, andreturns cash back to shareholders as the company delevers. Downside Scenario,$77, -21% Upside Scenario,$142, +46% Base Case,$127, +31% •Global beverage can volumes slow to very +LSD% as global recession sets in and beverage canpenetration rate for new products declines.•Lower-than-expected utilization rates due totheslowing demand and recent capacityexpansions.•TransitPackagingearningsdeclineaseconomy hits recession & consumer spendingslows.•2025E EBITDA: $1,774 mil; Target EV/EBITDAMultiple: 8.0x; Price Target: $77 •Global beverage can sales volume growthincreasesto+MSD%as emerging marketsrecover from macro-economic headwinds &sustainability-driven substrate substitution indeveloped markets accelerates.•Margin expansion from higher volumes,continued implementation of price increases inN. America beverage cans, and rising mix ofspecialty cans.•Transit Packaging volumes grow with stabilityin industrial end markets.•2025E EBITDA: $2,074 mil; Target EV/EBITDAMultiple: 10.5x; Price Target: $142 •NA beverage can supply / demand tightensfrom destocking headwinds; Brazil, SE Asia & S.Europe recover from pandemic.•Positivemomentumfromsubstrateconversions in developed markets driven bysustainability continues.•Strong growth from new investments comingonline in NA and increased penetration fromspecialty cans.•2025E EBITDA: $2,003 mil; Target EV/EBITDAMultiple: 10.0x; Price Target: $127 Sustainability Matters Catalysts Top Material Issue(s): 1)Product Design &