重构全球贸易体系用户指南

报告说明 !"#$CIFERAI%&'()*+,-./01234(56789:A User’s Guide toRestructuring the Global Trading System;<=0">?@ABCDEF%&GHIJK'LMNOPQRSTUV!WX'RYZ[\]Y^_`ab+G^c 1.]Y^c%&[\defW"`a'ghijklmnH'>opqZrW<=st/uvwE 2.b+G^c%&xytzd{|3}'YZ~KÄÅÇÉÑÖÜásHà:âÅÇÉäãåçé;èêëí+G<=`aE %&[\oìî'LMïxytzñó,òôöïõúAuùûE 0"fü†°É¢£§•¶Éß®©•¶uÅÇåçKB™´¨≠ÆØE https://cifer.pbcsf.tsinghua.edu.cn/ V!∞±"≤ 1.Stephen Miran,≥A User¥s Guide toRestructuring the Global Trading Systemμ, 2025.https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf 2.∂∑∏'-°®π∫uªºΩæ./9'ø¿°Éy¡¬'2024E √ƒ≈t∆«»…'<=GH∞ÀÃÕâSc Ãf≥‘’÷◊μÿŸ ‘’:ju;⁄~∂∑∏¤‹›fisAIfl‡òE≥‘’÷◊μAPP#$∂∑∏¤‹fl·‚åçìz'¶„CIFER AI‰ÂÊåÆÁËsAIÈÍ°ÎÏ%&_Ì%ÓÔ'ŸÒÚÛì“◊"ÉÙ-<=GH-ıˆ[\”s˜4¯`a˘˙'⁄AI˚èÅÇåç[\s.C¸˝E ÿŸÊ˛ˇòc ∂∑∏'ü†°É¢£§•¶Éß!"¤‹õ®©•¶uÅÇåçKB:CIFER;i#õ$%•¶åçKB:CGFR;i# ÿŸÊì&ABCDEFGHIJ '()'ü†°É¢£§•¶Éß®©•¶uÅÇåçKB:CIFER;*Ùé+,-'ü†°É¢£§•¶Éß®©•¶uÅÇåçKB:CIFER;*Ùé+./'K®¬01ÉߪºÅÇ23åç45+åç&õCIFERåç&678'ü†°É¢£§•¶Éß$%•¶åçKB:CGFR;9Äåç:&;<='ü†°É¢£§•¶Éß$%•¶åçKB:CGFR;9Äåç:& Ãf-°®π∫uªºΩæ./9 -°®π∫uªºΩæ./9:∂∑∏>?;@5ÅÇÉs+^[\AB'[\®©ÅÇCDE.°sF*G——°®F®©23õ•¶õÔõHIõJ0u013+4(KCD0ALsπ∫M5{|sÎÏõNOsˆPõQRsflSõTUsVW'FFX®©23u•¶+◊VY¨'Z[,°®π∫s+◊4(R–ŒF\S]‚^X_°`aKsd5õ\b°®π∫scdR–®©ÅÇΩæFeuÆfEgK?yhij˜õπ∫klsmªºΩæs+◊'ntŒˆ*flS'[\ŒÆfopEqrstuvhttps://3.cn/2e5-BCUA ÃfCIFER ü†°É¢£§•¶Éß®©•¶uÅÇåçKB:CIFER;ì˜f2017‚11w'#$fü†°É¢£§•¶Éß':xf®©•¶õ®©23R–013+GÂsåçECIFERR"yz{|õ}~K®õĪºM5›fi∑Åmªº"ÇÉÑ'ÖÜfìÇK®_ªºEáனÅÇÉàsåçuâäãå'ç鮩ÅÇÉ+◊sÆfud5MHyÄ®èêëõíñ01ÆfsåçìzEKBi#∂∑∏Çü†°É¢£§•¶Éß!"¤‹E 目录 一．引言..........................................................................................................................................................1二．理论基础.................................................................................................................................................3三．关税：特朗普的“武器”再出鞘........................................................................................................9四．货币：“海湖庄园协议”要来了？..................................................................................................16五．安全工具：特朗普手中的“王牌”..................................................................................................20六．特朗普政策可能造成的经济后果.................................................................................................22七．结语：特朗普的政策逻辑...............................................................................................................26参考文献........................................................................................................................................................29附录《大国竞争与世界秩序重构》各章小结.................................................................................32 一．引言 ìî'ïLMñÖóSòô<=söàõõúùû·ü†:Stephen Miran;Eœ⁄óL°TsÅÇÉè'f¢£°Ér§ÅÇÉ•ãÉL'¶ß?®s©™·´¨≠úÆ:Martin Feldstein;¤‹EœØ∞XT±sÉÜá'≤XQRs*≥Å¥'μF∂¢∑åç4_ï∏V•¢≠π∫°!ªºôöEΩ.Cs⁄'œF2020‚æø¿¡ó#¬`√#Iƒ2≈ÅÇ2∆«Ä»G'>f2024‚12w…À?®ÇîՌÅÇ»Gœ&0i"Eò–—“'òô<=”bè‘’,æø¿2÷^◊sÅÇ2∆›o'ÿŸ“⁄¨¤‹”E ü†sÅÇi›'Tfi“fl‡É·”‚„'>F‰VY¨Æfy,“qcfldÉ·”Eœi›{IÂÊáÁËk°!Èäî'.ÍfldtJ0'ÎÏ®ÌÓÔsÅÇÒEßœsòÚi›K'LMbRÛ«Ù'œbè0ıˆf˜sóÚ°¯sõ˘˙bèkÆ∫˚s2∆'R“îáî”ÇWX'.¸01ÅÇOaE uS◊'LM˝˝òô<=≥y˛μs°ÜáE<=Ó—7y'Iˇ·‚◊'î!"ﮩ23_•¶4(s#–$°%S&E'◊⁄¿{(!≤⁄ÅÇÉè')ïÔ*FX®©234(skÖHé,é+Eæø¿,-\(R–Œ4r§sÎXÜs!–Ô.'Û/“æø¿2÷”bè0ﮩ23_•¶4(ñó.°û0Eò1û0s2B'≈[3fî4¬56sN7GÂ'8Å9:6;‡Ep—<=?y,()^G2îGÂs≥ô~<μE òô<=sABjD'bR=>ÇRS?Dc 1.GÂ@AcFXs®©23_•¶4(ïîØB'CÖÃ.…I$«DõñEɧF[IGHõ23IJK°E 2.2∆ŸLcæø¿2÷MN.¸0123_•¶4('ÉŒΩXBfî'~4ŸLO>c :1;PQÅ9:6;‡'RS23IJM :2;.TîF[IM :3;?«Ã®UIs®©π∫ÜM :4;®è[√Ã.öÇJ0VWXs“ì!”E 3.2∆ô~cÇ,*FòÚŸL'æø¿2÷bRé5Ì12∆ô~'ŒKEiCsO>c :1;ÃÂcò⁄æø¿2÷EYZsô~'bR5◊[\ƒ2Ê]õZ^®`HIõ>öÇuŒœ®è¤_s`aE :2;bc2∆cæø¿2÷bè0deïÃ.fg'R?«Ã®Hhsy§π∫ÜEòbR{IÌ1AÀ*F'O>uŒœ®èiìj˚õmàkA5˜sóéE :3;J0ô~cæø¿2÷{Il“J0Zm”u23õ•¶no'bè˝pqÉŒœ®èryïs'YZbc2∆ô~sX*t'./ïîXBs0123_•¶4(E ŒiC◊Du†¨u_Éºs¿v˝BØw'!<=ñÇ'î2÷xXΰsô~◊‚„23yzõWX{g_®©ÅÇÃ(t/ERS!<=l[|GHü†s-./01234(56789<=Ks~4vw_2∆ô~E 二．理论基础 :ó;Ã.s“æ}û~” òô<=sABjD⁄'\Òî!"ﮩ23_•¶4(sØ#'~3FfÃ.s4¬«DR–23yzsØïEEÃ.«D'”°J$¨⁄ÄÇÃ.öÇ01VWXsæÅqL'84Çs“æ}û~”:Triffin Dilemma;E 1.ÉÑ⁄“æ}û~Â”Ö fiÜóS'Ã.áà⁄0123s“{5WX”Eªº√®)â–.XÃ._î®ä'ÄÇãMJ0õäé^å'bR5◊ñó®©23_ç°Eò1ée>Ÿo0VfîèêsÅÇëFmç°È<'E⁄yfó1“V”sŸs'áà°èÙí5ì1WX◊â3óîE ïBıÅÇÉèñóæ·æ}û:Robert Triffin;F”òRÒá7y,òUGÂEœô'öÇVWXÆó®'îöõ.úqˆªºxyÃ._î®ä'|è#i0123_VùséeEòáåïîÓ,óè“01ûó”'ØAqÆó“lü†°”:î®ä;E Ç,xyòÚ“lü†°”'îáéCZ.Å9:6;‡:bR¢k+Gá⁄“£”Ã.s”Ã.sÌ;E•ò>Ø⁄ÄÇîò¶ß®©®W'E⁄ÄÇîöõ“£™”|è®è´ÙÃ.'¨î5òÚÃ.ˇ≠®Ã®®äE 2.“æ}û~”sÆØ FFGÂ◊,E\01ÅÇ[4∞fîı'ªºïÃ._î®äséeá0±◊±°EÇ,#iò1ée'îáاؓ≤”ΩÌs“lü†°”'CÖîsÅ9:6;‡±◊±°Eòáàóèûó'Ç,#iV6sée'ØAqÆólü†°'•èês°H˛äë≥±◊±~˝E 4¬Sˇ'Ã.á0…«D'ÄÇ°è)fiCÃ.'•Ã®èêsy§¥h≥ÄÇÃ.¶μE`§∂∑π∫ÜEòáàó誺s∏π…∫§”«'•ªºs*©ªBèÜ≥ºØ¨EΩÑÇÉÑîöÇóè¨æªº'Øøúˇ¿°!@öÖECˇ¡F[IHh¬Ö 3.îÇÉÑCÆfF[Ic®èJ0 <=æ|ÎÏ,®èJ0Ä√E8ÇÉÑCƒ≈îsF[IÖ<=ñÇF∆XiCqc23ï«sıb'îbèضF–F[IsG»E•FF'<=ñÇK®_…ñúØ∞⁄23À'Ã⁄ÕFs“J0Œœ”ExXΰ–Ìî¯sF[I'ïfZm®èJ0˙Ã.CE 4.ïîF[Is‚„ <=7y'Ã.s4¬«DïîF[I[ì,N.—“Eô”Ñ'ôò’I'óÚq÷˘˙yF,ÅÇG»EòØ∞⁄ÅÇGÂ'≤ì,¬0GÂ'˘˙ŒœÙ®èJ0:ÄÇ®ÌôIÃéCΰsF[IVY;E <=k5,óÚåç'7y2000‚˙2011‚◊'7yÿfuK®s23:“K®∏“”;'îF[I’ˇ,°Ÿôö⁄LEE–'òÚ’I¤¤yKFóÚæ‹q÷'CÖ\qÅÇ›¨\fiE LM◊˝óS<=K