2025南非食糖市场年度报告

Required Report:Required-Public Distribution Date:April 21, 2025 Report Number:SF2025-0012 Report Name:Sugar Annual Country:South Africa-Republic of Post:Pretoria Report Category:Sugar Prepared By:Masego Moobi Approved By:Oliver Flake Report Highlights: FAS/Pretoria’s Sugar annual report provides information on the production, supply, and distribution ofsugar in South Africa for marketing year (MY)2023/24, MY 2024/25, and MY 2025/26. South Africansugar cane production is forecast to recover in MY 2025/26 on normal weather conditions, following adown year in 2024/25. Imports of sugar in South Africa are forecast to drop in MY 2025/26 on increaseddomestic supply, while exports are forecast to increase on higher production. Contents Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................2Sugar Cane..................................................................................................................................................3Area..........................................................................................................................................................3Production................................................................................................................................................3Sugar............................................................................................................................................................6Production................................................................................................................................................7Consumption............................................................................................................................................7Exports......................................................................................................................................................9Imports....................................................................................................................................................13Stocks......................................................................................................................................................16Trade Policy and Regulations..................................................................................................................17 Executive Summary Sugarcane and sugar production:South African sugarcane is forecast to rebound in MY2025/26 on normal weather conditions and sufficient availability of water for irrigation.MY 2025/26 sugar production is therefore forecast to increase on improved canedeliveries and sugar recovery rate.Domestic consumption:Expected to increase by two percent in MY 2025/26. TheMinister of Finance announced that the tax on products containing sugar will not increasein the current fiscal year, which would have put downward pressure on consumption.Exports:Forecasts to increase by 22 percent in MY 2025/26 on improved production.Imports:Forecasts to drop by nine percent in MY 2025/26 on a rebound in domesticproduction and an applied tariff. Report NotesThe marketing year (MY) for sugar cane is April-March, while the sugar marketing year is May-April. For thepurposes of this report, refined cane sugar has been converted to raw value basis using a factor of 1.07. Theexchange rate used in this report (as of March 28, 2025) is 18.1883 South African Rand (ZAR) to one U.S. dollar(USD). Sugar Cane Area Area under sugarcane production in MY 2025/26 is forecast to remain virtually unchanged fromMY 2024/25. Rain-fed growing regions experienced drier than usual conditions in MY 2024/25which led to lower yields, reducing grower revenue and discouraging areaexpansion. Somegrowers replanted newer cane varieties on land previously left fallow due to milling capacitychallenges, motivated by cane shortages in MY 2024/25. Adverse weather events in MY2024/25 led to a shortage of good quality seed cane for somegrowers. Additionally, the MY2024/25 season ended earlier than usual; therefore, growers had an extended period without cashflow from cane production. Another challenge for producers will be a 12.7 percent increase inelectricity rates in 2025/26 and a further 5.36 percent and 6.19 percent increase in 2026/27 and2027/28 respectively. Higher electricity prices will affect the 20 percent of sugarcane productionunder irrigation and may further limit area expansion over the next few years. Production South African sugar production for MY 2025/26 is forecast to recover by seven percent fromMY 2024/25 on normal weather conditions and availability of sufficient water for irrigation.During crop travel in April, contacts reported to FAS/Pretoria that althoughNovember andDecember 2024 were hot and dry, growing regions received above average rainfall from lateJanuary through March 2025, which is expected to improve