泰国家庭债务和经济风险

Thai Household Debtand risks to the economy Current situation of Thailand’s household debt4 Thailand’s household debt compared to theworld7 When household debt increases along with therisk of bad debt9 Government measures to address debt in theentire system12 Thailand’s household debt outlook13 Krungsri research view:Thailand's structuralproblems remain a challenging on reducinghousehold debt18 References19 Unlessexplicitlystatedotherwise,thispublicationandallmaterialthereinisunder the copyright ofKrungsriResearch. As such, the reuse, reproduction, oralteration of this text or any part thereof is absolutely prohibited without priorwrittenconsent.Thisreportdrawsonawiderangeofwell-establishedandtrustworthysources,butKrungsriResearchcanmakenoguaranteeoftheabsolute veracity of the material cited. Moreover,KrungsriResearch will not beheld responsible for any losses that may occur either directly or indirectly fromany use towhich this reportorthe datacontained therein maybe put.Theinformation,opinions,andjudgementsexpressedinthisreportarethoseofKrungsriResearch, but this publication does not necessarily reflect the opinionsof Bank ofAyudhyaPublic Company Limited or of any other companies withinthe same commercial group. This report is an accurate reflection of the thinkingand opinions ofKrungsriResearch as of the day of publication, but we reservethe right to change those opinions without prior notice. For research subscription, contactkrungsri.research@krungsri.com Introduction In 2023, Thai household debt rose to 91.3% of GDP, led by expansion of consumer loans and housing debt.Meanwhile, non-performing loans or bad debts (NPLs) in the consumer loans and real estate purchasecontinued to increase significantly since before the COVID-19 outbreak. Moreover, Thailand is one of thecountries with the highest level of household debt to GDP in the world, corresponding to debt-servicecoverage ratio (DSCR) of 22.3%, significantly exceeding the average level for major countries of 9.8%.Looking ahead, the policy interest rate, kept at a 10-year high of 2.50%, coupled with the persistently highlevel of debt and DSCR, could potentially lead to more fragile financial stability and economy. This isespecially concerning as most of household debt is nonproductive loans that do not directly increasepeople income, such as personal loans and credit card loans. KrungsriResearch believes that with the measures implemented by government and the BOT in 2024, thelevel of household debt tends to gradually decline. However, the debt burden is expected to remainpersistently high due to lack of comprehensive measures to address the underlying issue of high debt,particularly insufficient income. ThansinKlinthanom Economistthansin.klinthanom@krungsri.com+662296 2944 Current situation of Thailand’shousehold debt Thai households' debt surged to 91.3% of GDP in 2023, with credit quality and debt repayment abilitydecreasing. Thailand's household debt increased to 91.3% by the end of 2023, mainly driven by an increase in consumerloans, particularly from credit cards and personal loans (with a 9.5% YoY increase), and real estate loans (up4.3% YoY). However, auto loans dropped by-0.6% YoY1/. While the Debt-Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR)2/suggests improvement from pre-Covid period, low-income groups (particularly in those monthly incomes belowTHB 10,000) remain struggle to pay off debts. In terms of debt quality, Thai commercial banks' non-performing loans (NPLs)3/stood at THB 492.8 billion in4Q23, accounting for 2.66% of total loans, compared to 2.9% at the end of 2019. NPLs of consumer loans,particularly auto loans, increased from 1.86% in 4Q19 to 2.13% in 4Q23. This trend is likely to continue,considering the surge Stage 2 loans or special mention loan (SM)4/for auto loans, which increased from 7.4% inthe pre-Covid period to 14.3% of the total loan by 2023. Household debt to GDP Debt-service coverage ratio (DSCR) by income range (%) Household debt growth by portfolio (%YoY) Stage 2 of consumer loan Stage 3 of consumer loan (NPL) Thailand’s household debt compared to theworld Globally, Thailand’s household debt-to-GDP ratios and DSCRs remain among the highest. Although Thailand’s household debt to GDP increased significantly from the pre-Covid period being inline withcountries, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) identifies Thailand as remaining among the highesthousehold debt-to-GDP ratios in the world. As of June 2023, Thailand's household debt-to-GDP ratio is secondonly to South Korea (101.7%) and Hong Kong (95.9%) in the Asia-Pacific region. Moreover, Thailand's DSCR standsat 22.3%, significantly exceeding the average level for major countries of 9.85/. Looking ahead, the policy interestrate, kept at a 10-year high of 2.50%, coupled with the persistently high level of debt and DSCR, could potentiallylead to more fragile financial stability and economy. This is especially concerning as most of household debt isn