泰国的不平等、家庭债务和社会保护的作用

Inequality, HouseholdDebt, and the Role of Piyaporn Chote, Corinne Deléchat, Seunghwan Kim, Ying Xu, WP/25/248 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department Inequality, Household Debt, and the Role of Social Protection in ThailandPrepared byPiyaporn Chote,Corinne Deléchat, Seunghwan Kim, Ying Xu, andTamon Yungvichit* Authorized for distribution byRupa Duttagupta IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This study examines the nexus between inequality, household debt, and social protection inThailand, focusing on their interrelation during the COVID-19 shock. Using data from the Thailand HouseholdSocio-Economic Surveys of 2019, 2021, and 2023, we apply the Recentered Influence Function regression anddecomposition method to identify the drivers of inequality in Thailand and demonstrate how the pandemic,despite its severe economic impact, led to a decline in income inequality through these drivers. Our analysishighlights the role of social protection, showing that social assistance helped reduce income inequality, while RECOMMENDED CITATION:Deléchat C., et al. (2025).“Inequality, Household Debt, and the Role of SocialProtection in Thailand,”IMF Working Paper No. 25/248. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C. WORKING PAPERS Inequality, Household Debt, andthe Role of Social Protection in Prepared byPiyaporn Chote,Corinne Deléchat, Seunghwan Kim, Ying Xu,andTamon Yungvichit Contents I. Introduction......................................................................................................................................................3 II.Overview ofInequality, Household Debt, and Social Protection in Thailand............................................5 A. Inequality in Thailand.................................................................................................................................5B. Household Debt in Thailand.......................................................................................................................6C.TheSocial Protection System in Thailand.................................................................................................81. Social Assistance................................................................................................................................8 III. Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic.............................................................................................................11 A. Economic Shock and the Authorities’ Responses...................................................................................11B. Impact on Inequality and Household Debt...............................................................................................12 IV. Data for the Empirical Analysis..................................................................................................................14 V. Drivers of Inequality in Thailand and Contribution of the Pandemic......................................................15 A. Empirical Strategy....................................................................................................................................15B. Empirical Results.....................................................................................................................................161. Drivers of Inequality...........................................................................................................................162. Contribution of the Pandemic............................................................................................................19 VI.Pandemic,Income Inequality,Social Protection, andHouseholdDebt.................................................21 A. Empirical Strategy....................................................................................................................................21B. Empirical Results.....................................................................................................................................221. Effect of Income Inequality................................................................................................................222. The Role of Social Protection............................................................................................................23 VII. PolicyImplications.....................................................................................................................................24 Annex I. Diverse Dimensions of Inequality in Thailand.................................................................................26 1. Regional Disparities...............................