贸易战2.0对泰国工业和服务业的影响

Impact of Trade War 2.0 onThailand’s Industrial and Service SectorsRound One Executive summary3 Introduction4 Impact of the Trump Government’sSecond-Term Trade War: Round One5 Scenario 1 :The US imposes 10% tariffs onChinese imports and China retaliates with10-15% tariffs on specified US imports5 Scenario 2 :The US imposes 10% tariffs onChinese imports and China retaliates with10-15% tariffs on specified US imports.In addition, the US places 25% tariffs onimports from Mexico and Canada.10 Krungsri Research view20 Unlessexplicitlystatedotherwise,thispublicationandallmaterialthereinisunder the copyright ofKrungsriResearch. As such, the reuse, reproduction, oralteration of this text or any part thereof is absolutely prohibited without priorwrittenconsent.Thisreportdrawsonawiderangeofwell-establishedandtrustworthysources,butKrungsriResearchcanmakenoguaranteeoftheabsolute veracity of the material cited. Moreover,KrungsriResearch will not beheld responsible for any losses that may occur either directly or indirectly fromany use towhich this reportorthe datacontained therein maybe put.Theinformation,opinions,andjudgementsexpressedinthisreportarethoseofKrungsriResearch, but this publication does not necessarily reflect the opinionsof Bank ofAyudhyaPublic Company Limited or of any other companies withinthe same commercial group. This report is an accurate reflection of the thinkingand opinions ofKrungsriResearch as of the day of publication, but we reservethe right to change those opinions without prior notice. For research subscription, contactkrungsri.research@krungsri.com Executive Summary Following the re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, he used an executive order toofficially initiate tariffs on Chinese imports. In response, the Chinese government implementedcountermeasures, including both tariff and non-tariff measures, raising concerns about the economic,trade, and industrial outlook. KrungsriResearch has conducted this analysis to assess the impact of the trade war using the GTAP modelunder two scenarios. In the first scenario, the US imposes 10% tariffs on imports from China, with Chinaretaliating by imposing 10-15% tariffs on selected US goods (this has already occurred, and retaliatorymeasures have been implemented). In the second scenario, the US increases tariffs on all Chinese importsby 10% and imposes 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, while China retaliates with 10-15%tariffs on selected US goods (this is likely to happen, but there is a temporary delay of at least 30 days,starting from February 4th, 2025, on the tariffs with Canada and Mexico). The analysis finds that the tariffhikesin all cases hurt the global economy, while Thailand is likely to benefit from increased exports andproduction relocation, particularly in computer, electronics, construction, and leather industries. On theother hand, the negative impacts have caused damage to the chemicals, textiles, and metals industries.These negative impacts were primarily transmitted from the supply chain of basic chemicals,petrochemicals, petroleum and other refined products, and electricity. Chaiwat Sowcharoensuk SupasynItthiphatwong EconomistSupasyn.itthiphatwong@krungsri.com+662296 4748 Senior Analystchaiwat.sowcharoensuk@krungsri.com+662296 2000 Ext. 50880 Introduction The US officially began imposing tariffs on imports of Chinese goods, effective Tuesday, February 4th,2025, while the Chinese government responded with counter-measures, including 10-15% tariffs andnon-tariff measures, starting from February 10th, 2025 Given that the US and China are the world’s largest and second-largest economies, the effects of the tradewar are inevitably widespread due to the global supply chain linkages, whether through the indirect effectsof tariffs on Chinese imports, the relocation of production bases from China, or export substitution ofChinese and US goods. To identify which sectors are likely to benefit or be impacted by the trade war,Krungsri Research utilized the GTAP model (Aguiar et al., 2019) to evaluate the impact on Thai economythrough key indicators, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exports, and investment. This assessmentexamines both the overall economic impact and the effects on individual industries under two scenarios:1) the implemented tariffs, and 2) the high-probability scenario involving additional tariffs on goods fromother important US trade partners as follows: In the first scenario,the US places 10% tariffs on Chinese imports, and China responds with 10-15%tariffs on some US imports. This scenario is currently in play.In the second scenario,in addition to the 10% tariffs on Chinese imports and the retaliatory 10-15%Chinese tariffs on specified imports from the US, the US also imposes 25% tariffs on imports fromCanada and Mexico. This aligns with Donald Trump's Executive Order and the announcement ofretaliatory measures against China. Therefore, there is still a st