贸易战2.0对泰国经济的影响

Impact of Trade War 2.0on the Thai Economy Executive Summary3 Introduction4 Looking Back at Trade War 1.0 Under Trump’sFirst Term and Its Impacts5 Scenario Analysis of Trade War 2.0 UnderTrump’s Second Presidency7 KrungsriResearch View: Trade War Outlook andImplications for Thai Economy21 References22 Unlessexplicitlystatedotherwise,thispublicationandallmaterialthereinisunder the copyright ofKrungsriResearch. As such, the reuse, reproduction, oralteration of this text or any part thereof is absolutely prohibited without priorwrittenconsent.Thisreportdrawsonawiderangeofwell-establishedandtrustworthysources,butKrungsriResearchcanmakenoguaranteeoftheabsolute veracity of the material cited. Moreover,KrungsriResearch will not beheld responsible for any losses that may occur either directly or indirectly fromany use towhich this reportorthe datacontained therein maybe put.Theinformation,opinions,andjudgementsexpressedinthisreportarethoseofKrungsriResearch, but this publication does not necessarily reflect the opinionsof Bank ofAyudhyaPublic Company Limited or of any other companies withinthe same commercial group. This report is an accurate reflection of the thinkingand opinions ofKrungsriResearch as of the day of publication, but we reservethe right to change those opinions without prior notice. For research subscription, contactkrungsri.research@krungsri.com Executive Summary Amid concerns over a new round of the US-China trade war following Trump’s re-election as US president,KrungsriResearch has conducted this analysis to evaluate its impact on both the global and Thaieconomies, utilizing the GTAP model under three scenarios: (i) the US imposes a60% tariff on all importsfrom China, (ii) the US imposes a60% tariff on all imports from China and a20% tariff on all imports fromother countries (including Thailand), and (iii) the US imposes a60% tariff on all imports from China and a20% tariff on all imports from other countries (including Thailand), and China retaliates with an equivalent60% tariff on all imports from the US. The results indicate that tariff hikes negatively affect the globaleconomy in all scenarios. While Thailand may benefit from production relocation and export substitutionin certain industries, these gains may not be as substantial as many expect, especially if the US imposestariffs on Thai exports and China imposes a retaliatory tariff on the US. Looking ahead, the Trump administration will likely retain some of Biden’s tariffs on strategic goods whilefurther increasing tariffs on Chinese imports. However, the final tariff may not reach60% or apply to allgoods as previously announced during the election campaign, as such measures may not be worth the costfor the US. Instead, Trump may use tariffs as a“threat”to secure special trade deals with other countries.Meanwhile, Thailand will likely face increasing risks if the US imposes tariffs and countervailing duties onThai exports. Thailand may also encounter export dumping from China. Therefore, Thailand should adopt amore proactive trade and foreign policy, particularly by accelerating negotiations for trade agreementswith both existing and new partners while enhancing the competitiveness of its industries and services tomitigate the impact of the trade war, which is likely to escalate at least over the next four years. SupasynItthiphatwongEconomistSupasyn.itthiphatwong@krungsri.com+662296 4748 Introduction Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election for a second term has raised concerns in manycountries, including Thailand since his policies aimed at protecting US businesses could trigger a newround of the US-China trade war. Recently (as of November 25, 2024), Trump announced an initial plan toimpose a 10% tariff on all imported Chinese goods, as well as a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada andMexico. During the election campaign, Trump also declared his intention to impose tariffs of up to 60% onall imports from China and 10-20% on all imports from other countries. Given these developments, this analysis will estimate the impact of a new round of the trade war on boththe global and Thai economies, with a particular focus on exports, investment, and Gross DomesticProduct (GDP) under three scenarios:i) the US imposes a 60% tariff on all imports from China, ii) the USimposes a 60% tariff on all imports from China and a 20% tariff on all imports from other countries(including Thailand), and iii) the US imposes a 60% tariff on all imports from China and a 20% tariff on allimports from other countries (including Thailand), and China retaliates with an equivalent 60% tariff on allimports from the US. The analysis will also examine how the trade war will likely progress and itsimplications for the Thai economy in the next period. Looking Back at Trade War 1.0 UnderTrump’s First Term and Its Impacts Thailand and ASEAN exports have increased due to the substitution effect, in which US and Chinesegoods have become relativ