经济月报（2022年5月）

MONTHLYECONOMICBULLETIN May 2022 Global: Multi-speed economy China Downside risks from strict lockdown measures and Ukrainewar could drag growth further in Q2.Weaker domestic and external demand, supply disruption,and delayed booster vaccinations would hinder economicexpansion and challenge growth ambition.Expect to step up fiscal and monetary stimulus measures;limited policy space could make it challenging to prevent afurther slowdown. EuropeEurozone economy may face a growth shock, triggered by Ukraine war, China lockdown,and risk of an energy crisis.Despite weaker growth, concerns overpersistent high inflation could prompt theECB to start hiking rates from July andgradually normalize policy.BOE sees UK inflation rising to 10%; mightproceed with rate hike cycle but with a moredovish stance amid risk of a loomingrecession. US Japan External uncertainties including Ukrainewar and China lockdown could delayrecovery despite easing restrictions andreopening.Given that rising inflation is not broad-based and the weaker yen wouldbenefit exports, the BOJ is expected topursue ultra-loose monetary policy. Economy shrank in 1Q22 due to supplydisruptions and unwinding of stimulus; nota sign of impending recession.Strong domestic spending suggestseconomy will expand this year, but at aslower pace.Fed to keep current pace of policytightening to fight inflation; moreaggressive move could increase risk of ahard landing. IMFtrimmed2022globalgrowthforecastbecauseofUkrainewar,butraisedinflationoutlookduetosoaringcommoditypricesandsupply-demandimbalances AdvancedEconomiesEmerging Market andDeveloping Economies GlobaleconomicgrowthisatitsweakestsinceJune2020,amidslowingmanufacturingactivity,downturninChina,andrisinginflationarypressure US:EconomyshrankinQ1duetosupplydisruptionsandunwindingofstimulus;notasignofimpendingrecession ThenegativeGDPgrowthin1Q22intheUSwasmainlyduetosupplydisruptions,notasignofrecession.1Q22GDPfellby1.4%,triggeredby(i)awidertradedeficitwithsurgingimportsandfallingexportsduetopandemic-relatedsupply-chainconstraints;(ii)slowerinventoryrestocking;and(iii)fadingimpactofgovernmentstimulusspendingtoaddressthepandemic.InApril,ISMManufacturingPMIdroppedforasecondstraightmonthtoitslowestsinceJuly2020,amidsupplydisruptionsandlaborshortage.ISMServicesPMIremainedstrongbutgrowthsloweddowninAprilasaresultofhighinflation,highmaterialcosts,capacityconstraintsandlogisticalchallenges.Forconsumerconfidence,thePresentSituationIndexedgeddownbutremainshigh,withstrongerintentiontobuybig-ticketitemslikeautomobilesandappliances.TheConsumerExpectationIndexhadstoppedfallingamidhighoilpricesandthewarinUkraine.Despiteapotentialslowdownineconomicactivityduetosupplyconstraintsandotherheadwinds,severaleconomicindicatorssuggestdomesticspendingwouldcontinuetoexpandin2Q22. StrongconsumerandbusinessspendingsuggestUSeconomywillexpandthisyear,butataslowerpace Thedomesticeconomyremainsresilientwithstronggrowthofconsumerandbusinessspending.Businessinvestmenthadsurged,reflectedby(i)a10%YoYincreaseinCoreCapitalGoodsNewOrders(non-defensecapitalgoodsusedintheproductionofgoodsorservices,excludingaircraft)inMarch,and(ii)ariseinCapacityUtilizationrateto78.3%,thehighestsinceJanuary2019.ConsumersarespendingmoreonservicesfollowingfewerCovid-19casesandliftingofpandemicrestrictions.Travelisakeydriver.UShoteloccupancycontinuedtoriseto66.6%fortheweekendedApril30,only3.4%belowpre-Covidlevel.About2.1mnpeoplepassedthroughairportcheckpointsinlateApril,upfrom1.4mnthreemonthsearlier.Thestrengtheninglabormarketandrisingwagessuggestconsumerspendingwouldcontinuetoimprove.Householdbalancesheetsarestrong.Bufferedbypandemicsavings,HouseholdDebtServicingRatio(repayment/income)isthelowestin40years,whichmeanshouseholdswouldbeabletoweatherhighcostsbyeitherdippingintosavingsorexpandingborrowing. RobustdomesticspendingandhighinflationriskssuggestFedwouldkeeppaceofpolicytightening;moreaggressivemovecouldincreaseriskofahardlanding KrungsriResearch’sview Atthemeetingon3-4May,theFOMCwashawkishandraisedFedfundsrateby50bps,thebiggesthikeintwodecades.Weexpect50-bpsratehikesinthenexttwomeetings,butmoreaggressivemovecouldincreaseriskofahardlandingfortheeconomy. TheFedisexpectedtomaintaincurrentpaceofpolicytighteningtocurbinflation,whichisexpectedtoremainhigh.USpricepressureismorebroad-based,includingasurgeinservicesinflation,asdemandhadpickedupfasterthansupply.Atightlabormarketalsodroveservicespricehigher.WeexpecttheFedtoraiseratesby50-bpseachattheJuneandJulymeetings.Afterthat,tighteningwouldbeslowerwitha25-bpshikeeachattheremaining3meetingsthisyearasinflationislikelytosoftenmarkedlyfroma4-decadehigh,albeitstillexceed2%target.Riskstogrowthwouldbecappedbyarobustlabormarketandhealthyhouseholdbalancesheets. TheUScentralbankisunlikelytotakeamorehawkishstanceasmoreaggressiveratehikescouldincreaseriskofahardlanding.FinancialConditionshavestartedtotightensincemid-April,toclosetothetightestlevelsince2016,excluding2020(covidshock).Fasterratehikescouldals