2024年经济展望

November 2023 Global: Diverging growth prospects amid cyclical slowdown and structural challenges China Economic stimulus meet structural headwinds.Short-term rebound in policy support.Structural slowdown amid the property crisis, highdebt, tech war, and weak global demand. EuropeLacks key growth drivers, growth is supported by low-base effect andsofter inflation.Clear signs of slowing inflation andstagnating growth could prompt theECB to cut interest rates in mid-2024. US Japan Preparing for a slowdown or softlanding dragged by unusually tightcredit conditions.The Fed might start to unwindpolicy tightening in 2H24 or cut realinterest rates to avoid a hardlanding. Growth will lose momentumamid fading reopening tailwinds.However, wage hike and highinflation could prompt the BOJ togradually unwind ultra-loosemonetary policy in 1H24. Globalgrowth loses momentum amid fading post-covid recovery tailwinds,tightermonetarypolicies,andlessfiscalsupport Slowglobalrecoverywithgreaterregionaldivergence,challengingtoreturntopre-covidoutputtrends;policytighteningwilleaseinflationbutbitegrowth TheIMFprojectsglobaleconomicgrowthwilldeceleratefrom3.5%in2022to3.0%in2023and2.9%in2024,belowthehistoricalaverageof3.8%over2000-2019.Growthinadvancedeconomiesisexpectedtoslowfrom2.6%in2022to1.5%in2023and1.4%in2024.Growthinemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomiesareprojectedtoedgedownfrom4.1%in2022to4.0%inboth2023and2024.Despitesignsofresilienceearlierthisyear,economicactivityisstillbelowtheIMF’spre-pandemicprojections(inJanuary2020).Severalforcesareholdingbackrecovery,includinglong-termconsequencesofthepandemic,thewarinUkraine,andincreasinggeo-economicfragmentation.Otherforcesarecyclical,includingtheeffectsofmonetarypolicytightening,withdrawaloffiscalsupportamidhighdebtlevels,andextremeweather. Globalmedium-term growth projections are the weakest since 1990 amid structuralheadwinds;EMDEsneedlongerperiodtohalftheincomepercapitagapwithAEs US:Preparingforasoftlandingdraggedbyunusuallytightcreditconditions EconomicgrowthintheUSreboundedto+5.2%QoQsaarin3Q23from2.1%in1Q23and2.1%in2Q23.Lookingahead,USeconomicgrowthisprojectedtodeceleratetoonly1.5%in2024from2.1%in2023.TheISMActivitySurveysuggeststheeconomywouldstagnate.Severalfactors,suchasfadingreopeningbenefits,fewerstimulusmeasures,andsignificantlyhigherinterestrates,wouldhaveknock-oneffectsonfinancialmarkets,householdwealth,consumerspending,andbusinessinvestment.AsaprimarydriveroftheUSeconomy,privateconsumptiongrowthisanticipatedtoslowdownduetoasharpdropinexcesssavingsandslowerincomegrowth.Despitesomesignsofimprovement,banksremaintightwithlending,whichcouldleadtoadeclineininvestmentgrowth.Inthelabormarket,jobgrowthisexperiencingacyclicalslowdownthoughrobustemploymentinthegovernmentandhealthcaresectorsmighteasefearsofasevereeconomicdownturn. Amidstrongersignsofacyclicalslowdownandslowerinflation,theFedmightstarttounwindpolicytighteningin2H24orreducerealinterestratestopreventahardlanding KrungsriResearch’s view Downward pressure on wage and prices amid the economic slowdown would prompt the Fed toconclude the current rate hike cycle to prevent excessive tightening of monetarypolicy.We expectthe Fed funds rate to remainat5.25-5.50% in 1H24and dropto 4.25-4.50%by end-2024.The US economy would experiencea slowdown as well as softening inflation, which would raisereal interest rates or tighten monetary policy.Asharper drop in voluntary quits suggestswagegrowth would continue to decelerate. US input price index also show signs of falling prices (fasterthan in Eurozone and the UK).On recession risks,there are more negative signs such as weak ISM activitydataand a weaker labormarket,andpossibly weakerconsumption and investment growth as excess savings are exhaustedand real interest rates rise.However, there is minimal risk of asevererecession in the USas(i) wage growth remains positive;(ii) household net wealth hassurged at a record pace of 37% from 2019-22; and (iii) banking sectorremains resilient,reflectedby the Banking System Vulnerability index which show low vulnerabilityof the banking system despite the indexrising recently. All these factors could cushion future shocks. New York Fed’s study suggestsamoderate increase in systemicvulnerabilitycompared to the lowlevels of the previous 10 years. However,systemic vulnerabilityremains below thehighlevelspreceding the 2008 crisis,especiallybecause the largest banks had smallerexposure to capital shortfalls, firesales, liquidity mismatches, and runrisk, compared to smaller institutions. Eurozone:Absence of key growth drivers but low-base effect and softer inflation willsupport growth in 2H24 KrungsriResearch’sview TheEurozonecouldbethefirstmajorregiontoslipintoarecessionin4Q23,andtherecessioncouldextendtoearly2024.Thisispremisedonweakeningprivateconsumptionandinvestment,uncertaintyaboutlatestwarsandtheirpotentialrisktotheglobaleconomy(pricestability,tradechannels).Therecouldbedownsiderisksin2024ifthewarsescalate