2024年基础设施监测

InfrastructureMonitor 2024Public Disclosure Authorized Executive summary About The Infrastructure Monitor report covers global trends in private investment in infrastructure to inform investors, policy-makers and otherpractitioners. The objective is to deliver global insights on global infrastructure trends across key topics such as investment volumes, performance, blendedfinance, and ESG drivers, facilitating the monitoring of private infrastructure investment and its performance. These insights aim to supportpolicymakers, investors, and other stakeholders in developing sustainable, resilient, and inclusive infrastructure while fostering effectivepartnerships with the private sector. Acknowledging the significant infrastructure data gap — with notable variations in coverage, quality across countries and income groups, anddifferences in the availability of regional breakdowns — our approach leverages the best available aggregated data from leading infrastructuredatabases to generate market insights while also providing context on its limitations. 2025 will be the fifth version of the report, the first under the World Bank. Our data partners CONTENTS About Greenfield Investment Continues to Rebound in Developed Markets,While Growth in Emerging Markets Lags4Rising Interest Rates Weigh on Acquisitions and Fundraising5Infrastructure Demonstrates Resilience Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty6Policy and Incentive Changes Set to Influence Investor Strategies and Sector Priorities7Shifting Market Conditions and Policies Widen Investment Gaps10Strengthening Regulatory Frameworks Is Critical to Accelerating Investment in Emerging Markets11Development Institutions Remain Key to Mobilizing Private Capital in Emerging Markets12Guarantees and Blended Finance Offer Targeted Solutions to Bridge Investment Gaps13Opportunities to Expand Local Currency Financing and Capital Markets Beyond Major LMICs15Conclusion And Report Structure17Abbreviations18Glossary19 Greenfield investment continues to rebound in developed markets, while growth inemerging markets lags Global private investment in infrastructure projects in primary markets rose notably in nominal terms in 2023, increasing by 10 percent.The majority of this growth took place in developed markets, while low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) experienced a slight decline. This marks a continuation of strong post-pandemic growth, with investment levels significantly higher than the five-year average (2018-2022).However, infrastructure delivery costs have increased significantly in the meantime — potentially 10 percent above inflation based on theconstruction cost index across G20 countries — necessitating a cautious interpretation of the trend especially for greenfield projects. Meanwhile, secondary market investments declined by 17 percent in 2023, largely due to reduced acquisition activity, a reflection of theimpact of higher interest rates on asset valuations. The share of LMICs countries for secondary market continued to decrease slightly and onlyrepresented around 12 percent of the global volumes. Preliminary data for 2024 indicates some significant rebound for secondary activities asmany central banks globally initiated interest rate cuts, driven by declining inflationary pressures. Rising interest rates weigh on acquisitions and fundraising Investor sentiment surveys also highlighted rising interest rates as the primary challenge in generating attractive returns and this hastempered return expectations across most infrastructure fund types. Consequently, infrastructure fundraising also faced significant challenges in 2023, with total capital raised dropping to $94.9 billion, nearly halfof 2022 levels. While the decline stabilized in 2024, fundraising remained subdued, reaching $70.5 billion by Q3. Despite these challenges, investment from infrastructure funds – still stocked with significant dry powder — is expected to remain relativelyresilient compared to other asset classes. Between 2016 and 2022, infrastructure funds yielded an average return of 11.3 percent, with only aslight projected decline to 10.9 percent over 2022-2028. This is in contrast to steeper declines forecasted for private equity and venture capital,thereby improving the relative attractiveness of infrastructure funds for equity investors. Infrastructure demonstrates resilience amid macroeconomic uncertainty Despite evolving market conditions and differences across markets, private infrastructure financing has maintained a stable debt-to-equity ratioover the past decade, with debt financing comprising 77 percent of total investment in 2023. Infrastructure debt remains attractive to investorsdue to its reliable cash flows and historically lower default rates compared to non-financial corporate debt — a trend consistent across countriesof all income levels. Even in non-investment-grade categories, infrastructure debt demonstrates stronger credit performance and higherrecovery rate