马拉维IEP报告——电气化

IN PARTNERSHIP WITH: Other reports in this series Malawi–Clean Cooking Report Malawi–Cold Chain Report This report includes the results of cold chaincapacity utilization and assessment, facilityenergy needs assessment andrecommendations for effective cold chainmanagement for both COVID-19 vaccines aswell as routine immunization coverage forMalawi. This report provides an overview ofcleancooking opportunities to be achieved by 2030.By utilizing a dynamic data-driven methodology,the report identifies a mix of modern and cleanercooking technologies and solutions to achieveSDG7.1 targets by 2030 including realization ofMalawi’s SDG7 Cleaner Cooking Compact. DOWNLOAD HERE EXPLORE THE RESULTS FOR YOURSELF malawi-iep.sdg7energyplanning.org Any Questions:iep@seforall.org Table of Contents 1.Executive Summary2.Malawi IEP Electrification Overview3.Data Collection and Validation4.Energy Expenditure Survey5.Methodology for Geospatial Electrification Analysis1.Design assumptions2.Routing Algorithm6.Least-cost Electrification Analysis and Results1.Densification2.Expansion3.Mini-grids4.SHS5.Electrification of Public Facilities7.Implementation Recommendations8.Financing Requirements9.Conclusions10.Annex612172835373945474956566668798083 ACAcronym List ACDCESCOMGISIEPkmkW / kWhLVMTFMVNRECAODKOSMSAEPSEforAllSHSUSAIDUSDAlternating CurrentDirect CurrentElectricity Supply Corporation of Malawi LimitedGeospatial Information SystemIntegrated Energy Plankilometerkilowatt/kilowatt-hourLow VoltageMulti-Tier FrameworkMedium VoltageNational Rural Electric Cooperative Association InternationalOpen Data KitOpen Street MapSouthern Africa Electrification ProgramSustainable Energy for AllSolar Home SystemUnited States Agency for International DevelopmentUnited States Dollars ExecutiveSummary Electrification challenge MALAWI ELECTRIFICATION RATE BY DISTRICT (2022) •Taken together, ESCOM and off-grid providers serve approximately750,000 households, including approximately 550,000 grid-servedconsumers and 200,000 off-grid consumers. In addition, 3,992 publicfacilities have grid service and 346 have off-grid service. Therefore, theestimated population with electricity is 3.4 million people. •Estimated 2022 population is approximately 4,435,000 households,leaving ~3.7 million households (16.6 million people) without grid or off-grid service. Approximately 3,843 public facilities do not yet have accessto electricity service. •Significant power quality & reliability issues–insufficient power supplyresults in frequent outages, insufficient access to investment contributesto overloaded feeders and transformers. •By 2030 and at the current rate of growth, there will be 5.5 millionhouseholds in Malawi •Grid and off-grid access will need to grow at an average rate of 607,567connections per year to reach universal access by 2030, with a peakgrowth rate of 1.17 million connections in 2028. Elasticity of Demand for off-grid electricity service The ESCOM tariff is $0.064/kWh for residential consumers. This tariffreflects national-level economies of scale and is subsidized by thegovernment. For off-grid electrification, the costs of system operations areallocated to fewer users at a smaller scale, which requires a highertariff for sustainable operation. •Mini-grids typically have higher financing costs and shorter-termdebt than public utility infrastructure, which also increases the costof electricity service. Therefore, mini-grid tariffs are assumed to behigher, in the range of USD $0.45/kWh and the associated monthlyelectricity consumption is 12 kWh/month-consumer. •Solar Home Systems (SHS) typically charge monthly fees for servicerather than direct consumption-based tariffs for end users. Thesecosts depend on the SHS size and the provider’s prices, however aMTF1 Tier 1 system is commonly USD $12/month or higher, andTier 2 systems exceed $25/month, which exceeds the WTP in allthree regions. Therefore, SHS affordability will require subsidies forLow decile customers. 1.Further inputs on the Multi-Tier Framework (MTF) is provided in the Annex. Electrification of Public Facilities •Nationwide health facility data was provided by theministry of health and analyzed in the medicalcoldchain analysis1to determine electrification status andapproximate electrical demand. SCHOOL ELECTRIFICATION RESULTS •Health facilities were identified in the geospatialplanning models and illustrated according toelectrification modality in the 2030 universalelectrification scenario. •Similar analysis was conducted for electrification statusof schools throughout Malawi. Universal Access by 2030 •To increase access from 12.5% of today’s population (4.5 millionhouseholds) to universal access by 2030 (with a total population of5.5 million households), 42% of new consumers will be connected viagrid expansion and 22% will be connected via densification ofcustomer connections within ESCOM's existing network. •Off-grid electrification will account for 26%