2025年特朗普2.0与我们的应对（二）：万斯国际政治与经济政策主张解读

报告说明 !"#$CIFERAI%&'()*+,-./0)123·45·637James David Vance89:;<=>?9@AB7Hillbilly Elegy8CDEFGH'IJKLMD.NOPQRSOTUV9WXYZ[ \%&]^_`K'abcdefg>hij!kl'gmnopqmrstuv+]rw 1.qmrw%&opxyzk"tu'{|U}~ÄÅ^'IÇÉÑnÖkÜá9àâQäã[ 2.v+]rw%&åçàéxèêëí'mnìîKïRSñóòôö9^õ7úRSñùûü†°8¢£§•+]Üátu[ %&opǶß'ab®åçàé©™,?´¨®≠ÆWQØ∞[ ±"z≤≥¥ñμ∂∑∏πñ∫.N∏πQRSü†KXªºΩæø¿[ https://cifer.pbcsf.tsinghua.edu.cn/ j!¡¬"√ ƒ≈J.D.Vance, “Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis”, Harper CollinsPublishers'2016∆ 2.«»…'<¥.ÀQÃÕŒœ–âB'—“¥ñ甑'2024[ ’÷◊àÿŸ⁄¤'Üá]^¡‹›fi÷flú>w D‡¡¬"√C⁄¤w·‚„⁄ fiz‰ÂÊÁËÈÍÎ ÂÊ7ju8Ïìî«»…ÌÓÔ9AIÒÚ?[‰ÂÊÁËÈAPP#$«»…ÌÓÒÛÙü†¶é'πıCIFER AIˆ˜¯üø˘˙9AI˚¸¥˝˛%&sˇ%!"#'Î$%&¶“Ë"ñ'-Üá]^-()op”9*+,tu-.'ÏAI/¢RSü†op9–Y01[ Íί23?w «»…'≤≥¥ñμ∂∑∏πñ∫H4ÌÓ≠.N∏πQRSü†KX7CIFER8U5≠67∏πü†KX7CGFR8U5 Íί¶8ABCDEFGHIJ 9:;'≤≥¥ñμ∂∑∏πñ∫.N∏πQRSü†KX7CIFER8<'°=>?'K.‘@Añ∫ÃÕRSOPü†BC+ü†8≠CIFERü†8DEF'≤≥¥ñμ∂∑∏πñ∫.N∏πQRSü†KX7CIFER8<'°GHI'≤≥¥ñμ∂∑∏πñ∫67∏πü†KX7CGFR8Jïü†K8LMN'≤≥¥ñμ∂∑∏πñ∫67∏πü†KX7CGFR8Jïü†K8 fiz<¥.ÀQÃÕŒœ–âB <¥.ÀQÃÕŒœ–âB7«»…OP8QRRSñ9+ropST'op.NRSUVW–¥9XqÙrls¥tuK9xR≠pv¥.À9wxgC.NRSŒœXyQøz[{KLç|}~*≠ÀÄ9ÅÃÕŒœ9+Ë'0àD)<Òg'opDøzÇÉ[ÑÖÜáàâhttps://3.cn/2e5-BCUA fizCIFER ≤≥¥ñμ∂∑∏πñ∫.N∏πQRSü†KX7CIFER8¶*z2017Ù11ä'#$z≤≥¥ñμ∂∑∏πñ∫'Kãz.N∏π≠.NZëgC±^P+Y˜9ü†[CIFERg"åçéè≠êëK.≠íìÃÕaRÔ»îÅÃÕ"ïñó'òôz¶ïK.sÃÕWöõ.NRSñõ9ü†Qúùûü'†°.NRSñ+Ë9øzQxRa[çíì.¢£§≠•©±^øz9ü†¶é[KXU5«»…ï≤≥¥ñμ∂∑∏πñ∫H4ÌÓ[ 目录 一．引言.............................................................................................................................................1二．全球化批判与制造业复兴........................................................................................................2三．贸易与关税政策........................................................................................................................5四．技术、能源与创新政策............................................................................................................7五．国际关系与安全观念................................................................................................................9六．潜在影响与风险......................................................................................................................11七．结语：万斯的政策逻辑..........................................................................................................12参考文献..........................................................................................................................................14附录《大国竞争与世界秩序重构》各章小结............................................................................15 一．引言 123¶45¶637James David Vance'g>ß®638X5-./0)'¶©z-.‰™´Ñ¨È9≠iÆØ◊∞'±≤DOTUVh≥i?¶©R¥s®-.´?μ∂Xy}k9∑∏[\π5.@¡∫8C-./0)ªº'‡Ωæ&¶,≠øäãc¿9.NOPQRSOTUV[ 639:;<=>?9@AB7Hillbilly Elegy8ç”z2016Ù'¡¬,-.“™´Ñ¨”√?´?μï9ƒ≈'op,ƃôß9",Q‘@àâY˜[∆{≠R甫≥»,‘@’Õ9…fiã'IÀÃï+]ÕŒœ–—õ9–Y"![\ÕŒœ2.0(v'63OTUV9WXäã“J∆{KvŸ≠”[63fiã√?´?μ∂9ƒ≈QX!'DOTUVπı,‰‘’U÷◊ÿÈ®±^,2Ÿ⁄x9fiãQ‰"#¤}U÷È®nÅ‹°r›9fiflaDWXOT‡·‚„‰-.ö‰Èkl'Â\è_–Ê-.9RSàâs.NÁ7'ËÈ.tÍo\'nÎ!.´?ÏÌ'IgÓÔ≠Óì<9Ò!Ú+.Nfi([ÛÙıOTˆg<˜'X™±^Zës]±du¯≥»–¥˘˙[ !"jz63:;<=>?9@ABsˇ˚EFGH'()*+,DWXOT+fl[!"J±^,¸˝QÍo\ËÈ'ZëQfi˛OT'"#≠¢ˇQnÅOT'.Nfi(Q]±}fl'!\∑∏Q"#'OTäã_$iSŸ®639.NOPQRSOTUV©™*+%&'Io']^DKäãsOT´ì[ 二．全球化批判与制造业复兴 7≠8®_(±^,%)9*+ 63®_(,ÛÙ9±^,%)—lhi9¸˝!-'Ù.¸˝â¶,DRSOTUV9j/[‡0ï'Ù.%)\hiWX∂ŸÄ\ë!r12'IW345,-.9.¢ÏÌ'Õ'Ï®DBfiã9´?μïo¶,2Ÿ∑∏[ 1.î6QÍo7flÀ?ï899:Å 63\-.;ô<@9GHK'¯“vg¯ÍoQî6oF”9+fl®ï“±^,9=≠i:27first conceit ofglobalization8”3[‡>ç'Ù.%)9îÏwfN.¢7ú-.8Kãz?@áAB9î6≠üø7fl7dú[CΩDã“-.î6”8'E¯›®FB9Ío7flGH»I°ô¶!JF9.¢7ú‰K.ÍoÈ8[K‹Ù.+Ë'L(Ío\M`9-.´?vgè_ñ'î6ÄO`_"¢'GNÓA?@9´O3[ PE'630ïÙ.îÀXÖw\?@áhB≥»tu'É+RS<ô›®jk3[ ±≤'63ˆçàË'¥μ∂∑*+Ù.±^,%)[‡ÔS'碯Ù.L∏9±^,äãπ∫znÅ!laªª›°'ºÏÙ.®v?I°ô9Ωæ'è®nÅo¶,453[Ù≠ø¿ïDß¡Lç9–¬Ío\≠<˜nÎrfi˛≠√ƒ.tnÅscd≈ÍH‘_≠(∆OTUV«+,jm[ 7y8Ío\»…9ëˇQßé ≠ific9ËZÏ'Ô¥9!Ío\Ï.¢]±9j/[\63ß›'-.Ío\9©ª»ÀIç≠≠Ï≠i∑∏à\sÑSRS9ƒ≈'Ó%Ωg»,.¢]±9WXY˜[‡0ï'p-.ÙÃ≠i¥.ôÕ\.t“ÍolŒ9Å)œ”('Dßé–—RS“”[‡©≠æ>ç'≠i.¢9.‘¢ô'e’°[‰©÷◊ÿîsnŸ£(œè⁄x9¢ô'sA-#wzD´\jm9<ôs¤r[±≤'Ío\9´X,úàjk,-.9.‘!ô'ñˆ“sûè_<ô”9+flágl⁄–‹[ ï,ìõ,Ù.»…9c–rCD£§›fi'63®z,-.ofl\9¥‡QXy[‡\GHK·¬'-.‚\y£ªºzXç„?9´\°[¢ô'¢£g‰A⁄ê¥ì°[QåflÂaEúÊ'-.\±^Áfl»oËÈ9∞Í%Îç}∂'›zs>K._À®ÏlÌg,UrÑ`3[ÙidÓÂ\Ô¬'fic£§[\¢ô9L'v¢rò-.\r›!\˘ÒÄ