碳酸锂周度报告：矿价边际松动，锂价破位下行
AI智能总结
陈祎萱CFA高级分析师（有色金属）从业资格号：F3074710投资咨询号：Z0017769Tel:8621-63325888-2722Email:yixuan.chen@orientfutures.com 碳酸锂：震荡2025年3月23日 上周锂盐价格加速下行。LC2504收盘价环比-2.9%至7.31万元/吨，LC2505收盘价环比-3.0%至7.32万元/吨；溧阳中联金碳酸锂近月合约收盘价环比-3.3%至7.3万元/吨。周内氢氧化锂价格略降，SMM粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价环比-0.1%至6.98、7.50万元/吨。电工价差环比持平、为0.20万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比收窄至0.45万元/吨。 上周锂价下跌加速、主力合约LC2505增仓创下新低，基本面角度的催化因素或为矿价的边际松动：周中Fastmarkets6%锂辉石精矿报价环比前值下跌10美金至845美元/吨，此外据调研了解，周初澳矿实际成交价或在830美元/吨附近，非矿成交价在820美元/吨以内，较前期850美元/吨以上的成交价有明显回落。 海关数据方面，1-2月累计进口碳酸锂3.25万吨，同比+48%，结合智利及阿根廷发运情况，3月锂盐或仍面临较大到港压力；1-2月累计进口锂矿约合9.32万吨LCE，同比+2%，对应测算中国境内锂矿库存天数仍近4个月、并未显著去化。 向后看，基本面对价格的指引仍整体偏空：盐端过剩依旧、同时盘面及矿价的螺旋下跌使得成本支撑持续下移。但值得注意的是，当前基本面利空均已逐步在数据中呈现，当盘面对此完成定价后，短期内交割博弈对盘面的定价权重或边际增强：当前LC2505持仓25.7万手，同时据我们测算，2月以来新入库仓单约在1.1万手，后续需持续关注仓单生成速度。 如何理解碳酸锂的春季躁动？2024/03/29过剩已至，产业链如何出清？2023/12/28博弈加剧，不破不立2023/09/29渐趋理性，波动收敛2023/06/29 ★风险提示 下游消费不及预期，新增产能建设进度与企业预期有所出入。 目录 1、矿价边际松动，锂价破位下行...........................................................................................................................................42、周内行业要闻回顾...............................................................................................................................................................53、产业链重点高频数据监测...................................................................................................................................................63.1、资源端：锂精矿现货报价松动........................................................................................................................................63.2、锂盐：主力合约增仓跌破前低........................................................................................................................................63.3、下游中间品：报价回落....................................................................................................................................................93.4、终端：2月中国新能源车渗透率回升...........................................................................................................................104、风险提示.............................................................................................................................................................................11 图表目录 图表1：锂产业链重点高频价格监测............................................................................................................................................................4图表2：锂精矿现货均价................................................................................................................................................................................6图表3：MtCattlin锂精矿生产利润...............................................................................................................................................................6图表4：GFEX碳酸锂主力合约收盘价（LC2505）....................................................................................................................................6图表5：GFEX碳酸锂期限结构....................................................................................................................................................................6图表6：国内碳酸锂现货均价及电工价差....................................................................................................................................................7图表7：碳酸锂基差（SMM电碳现货均价-GFEX近月）..........................................................................................................................7图表8：溧阳中联金碳酸锂主力合约收盘价................................................................................................................................................7图表9：智利碳酸锂出口均价........................................................................................................................................................................7图表10：国内氢氧化锂现货均价..................................................................................................................................................................8图表11：海内外氢氧化锂价差......................................................................................................................................................................8图表12：国内电池级氢氧化锂-碳酸锂价差.................................................................................................................................................8图表13：锂盐厂理论生产利润......................................................................................................................................................................8图表14：磷酸铁锂价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................9图表15：磷酸铁锂电芯（动力型）均价......................................................................................................................................................9图表16：三元材料价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................9图表17：523方形三元电芯（动力型）均价.................
