越南2023年金融市场和2024年展望：金融科技监管的方向

VIET NAM’S FINANCIAL MARKETS2023 AND OUTLOOK 2024 DIRECTION FOR FINTECH REGULATION Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2024 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2024. ISBN 978-92-9277-161-4 (print); 978-92-9277-162-1 (PDF); 978-92-9277-163-8 (e-book)Publication Stock No. SPR240629-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/SPR240629-2 This report is a collaborative effort by experts from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Joint Stock CommercialBank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV), the National Financial Supervisory Committee (NFSC), andsector experts. The findings, explanations, and assessments presented in this report do not necessarily reflect the officialviews of BIDV, NFSC, and the views and policies of ADB or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB, BIDV, and NFS do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data included in this publicationand are not liable for any errors, omissions, or inconsistencies in the information and data, nor for any legal responsibilityarising from the use or non-use of the information, methods, procedures, or conclusions provided. The mention ofspecific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB,BIDV, NFSC in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars and “D” refers to dong.ADB recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China; “Hanoi” as Ha Noi; “Hong Kong” as Hong Kong, China;“Korea” as the Republic of Korea; “Saigon” as Ho Chi Minh; and “Vietnam” as Viet Nam.. Cover design by Jonathan P. Yamongan. TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXES v FOREWORDvii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xi ABBREVIATIONS 1Viet Nam’s Financial Markets 2023 and Outlook 20241 1.Macroeconomic Contexts Affecting Global and Viet Nam Financial Markets in 2023–202411.1Macroeconomic Performance and Its Impact on Financial Markets in 202311.2Macroeconomic Prospects and Implications for Financial Markets in 20246 2.Viet Nam’s Financial Market Outlook in 202492.1.Social Investment Capital Structure Expected to Take a More Positive Direction92.2.Continued Low Interest Rates and Gradually Reduced Exchange Rate Pressure14Once the Fed Cuts Rates in 20242.3.Financial Market Liquidity Expected to Improve in 2024222.4.Asset Quality and Risks in the Finance–Real Estate Nexus312.5.Profitability Prospects of Financial Institutions in 2024352.6.Legal Framework for the Financial System432.7.Continued Digital Transformation Emphasizing Artificial Intelligence Applications492.8.Trends in Sustainable Development and Green Finance53 2Direction for Fintech Regulation in Viet Nam60 1.Worldwide Fintech Regulatory Approaches60 1.1Wait-and-See Approach601.2Test-and-Learn Approach611.3Innovation Facilitators Approach631.4Regulatory Reform Approach66 2.Legal Framework for Fintech in Viet Nam68 3.Direction for FintechRegulation in Viet Nam72 3Policy Recommendations74 1.Stability and Development of the Financial Market742.Gold Market Management763.Fintech Regulation77 80 BIBLIOGRAPHY TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXES TABLES 1Selected Economic Indicators for Major Economies, 2020–2023 and 2024 Forecast22Viet Nam’s Gross Domestic Product Growth and Inflation, 2023 and 2024 Forecast83Profitability of Credit Institutions, 2022–2023364Summary of Artificial Intelligence Applications in the Finance Sector525Summary of Fintech Regulatory Approaches in Viet Nam72 FIGURES 1Viet Nam’s Bank Credit Growth, 2012–202332Sharply Declining Housing Transactions in Some Coun