2025年印度工业倍数报告——第26版

Q4 CY 2024 January 2025 Table ofContents Foreword DearReaders, We are pleased to introduce the 26th edition of ourIndustry Multiples in Indiareport. This report provides an overview of trading multiples for variouskey industries in India as of December 31, 2024, using constituents of the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) BSE LargeCap, S&P BSE MidCap and S&P BSESmallCap indices. Per the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s)World Economic Outlookreport, “Policy Pivot, Rising Threats,” global growth is expected to remainbroadly flat, decelerating from 3.3% in 2023 to 3.1% by 2029, and is largely unchanged fromWorld Economic Outlookforecasts from April 2024 andOctober 2023. The growth expectation for 2024 and 2025 remains muted at 3.2%. The regional growth expectations are as follows: •United States: The projected growth for 2024 has been revised upward to 2.8%, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than theJuly forecast onaccount of strong outturns in consumption and nonresidential investment. Growth is anticipated to slow to 2.2% in 2025 as fiscalpolicy is graduallytightened and a cooling labor market slows consumption. Umakanta Panigrahi •Euro Area: In the Euro area, GDP growth is expected to pick up to a modest level of 0.8% in 2024 on account of increased export, particularly exportof goods. In 2025, growth is projected to rise further to 1.2%, helped by stronger domestic demand. Managing Director,Valuation Advisory Services •Emerging Asia: Emerging Asia's high growth is expected to taper off, dropping from 5.7% in 2023 to 5% by 2025. This declineisprimarily driven bya persistent slowdown in the region's two largest economies, India and China. According to the IMF’sWorld Economic Outlookreport, global headline inflation is expected to fall from an annual average of 6.7% in 2023 to 5.8% in2024 and 4.3% in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies. Inadvanced economies, disinflation is expected to progress more quickly, with a 2% point drop between 2023 and 2024, stabilizing at around 2% in 2025.Conversely, in emerging markets and developing economies, inflation is projected to decrease from 8.1% in 2023 to 7.9% in 2024 and then decline moresharply to 5.9% in 2025. A recent Moody's report states that India's GDP is expected to grow by 6.6% in FY 2025 and 6.5% in FY 2026. In Q2 2024, India’sreal GDP expanded by6.7% year over year, fueled by a resurgence in household consumption, increased investment and solid manufacturing activity.Indicators of economichealth, including positive manufacturing and services PMIs, robust credit growth and consumer optimism, point to continued growth in Q3 of FY 2025. The report further highlights ongoing concerns about food price volatility, noting that headline inflation surged to 6.2% inOctober 2024 due to a spike invegetable prices, which is above the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance band of 4% (+/-2%). The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 fell by 0.8% between Q3 CY24 and Q4 CY24, whereas DAX and EURO STOXX 50 increased by 3% and 2.1%,respectively, during the same period. Further, S&P 500 and Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index rose by 2.1% andfell by 0.4%, respectively,between Q3 CY24 and Q4 CY24. The Indian stock indices (i.e., BSE Sensex and National Stock Exchange of India Nifty 50) fell by 7.3% and 8.4%, respectively,from September 2024 through December 2024 and declined by approximately 7.3% and 8.4%, respectively, since the current quarter’shigh. Foreword–Continued Automobiles In 2024, the Indian automobile sector experienced varied performance across different segments. We observed that the market capitalization in theautomobile industry considered in our analysis declined by 18% between Q3 CY24 and Q4 CY24. The Nifty Auto Index declined byalmost 15.5% duringQ4 2024 . The sector experienced sluggish demand in the latter half of 2024 after two years of strong growth. In December 2024,a surprise drop insales of 2% was recorded, following a degrowth of 14% in November 2024—making it a slow year end for the automobile industry. Electric and Gas Utilities We observed that the market capitalization of companies in the electric and gas utilities industry in our analysis declined by 19% from Q3 CY24 to Q4CY24. Power demand in India is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 7%, an increase from the previous estimate of 5%. Owing tothis increase indemand, the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell announced that the power sector's natural gas consumption fell to 9% last month,the lowest it hasbeen this year. Furthermore, in November, gas-based power plants saw their capacity utilization drop to 7.9%, marking the lowestlevel in over 18months. Umakanta Panigrahi Managing Director,Valuation Advisory Services Chemicals We observed that the market capitalization of companies in the chemicals industry in our analysis declined by 8% from Q3 CY24toQ4 CY24. The Indianspecialty chemical