聚烯烃周报：下游开工维持反弹，库存下降缓慢

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 中性：下游开工率预计维持反弹，但工厂整体开工负荷偏低，节后库存下降较缓慢，未来下游需求有好转预期，采购力度或增强。山东新时代LLDPE装置、埃克森美孚惠州一期LLDPE新装置陆续试车，暂未全面投产，实际扩能放量低于预期。当前国内供应处于高位，生产企业库存和社会库存较高，供应端压力较大。原油小幅上行，油制聚烯烃利润下滑，丙烷价格走低，PDH制PP利润修复。预计短期聚烯烃价格偏震荡运行。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 石化库存88万吨，较上年前去库5万吨。 联系人 基差方面，LL华东基差+220元/吨，PP华东基差-50元/吨。 杨露露0755-82790795yanglulu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03128371 生产利润及国内开工方面，原油小幅上行，油制聚烯烃利润下滑，丙烷价格走低，PDH制PP利润修复。 进出口方面，LL进口窗口关闭，PP进口窗口关闭。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 下游需求方面，下游开工率预计维持反弹，但工厂整体开工负荷偏低，节后库存下降较缓慢，未来下游需求有好转预期，采购力度或增强。 ■策略 刘启展020-83901049liuqizhan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03140168 中性。 ■风险 原油价格大幅波动，需求恢复不及预期。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 目录 聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃检修计划................................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................9聚烯烃进出口利润...........................................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................13聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图3:中国PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图4:中国油制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图5:中国煤制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图6:中国烷烃制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...............................................................................................................5图7:中国PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图8:中国油制PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图9:中国煤制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................6图10:中国PDH制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................6图11:聚烯烃周度开工预估|单位：%............................................................................................................................................6图12:PE开工率分工艺|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图13:PE开工率分品种|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图14:PP开工率分工艺|单位：%....................................................................................................................................................8图15:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................8图16:PE开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................8图17:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图18:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图19:PP开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................9图20:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨.................................................................