寻找中国制造到中国品牌的双重机会

证券研究报告 寻找中国制造到中国品牌的双重机会 姓名:吕明（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520030002 邮箱：lvming@kysec.cn 2025年2月13日 核心观点 外销市场：创新能力+自主品牌+海外产能构筑长期竞争力 （1）创新思维+快速迭代/快速反应能力：品牌企业依托中国供应链以及工程师红利快速迭代产品，极致创新+成本抢占海外品牌份额，以石头科技/九号公司/安克创新/海尔智家/赛维时代/名创优品/泡泡玛特/TCL电子为代表。 （2）打造自主品牌：创新思维打造差异化，站外精准营销提升品牌溢价，具备一定市场定价权，关税成本提升情况下可通过部分 提价向下游传导，以石头科技/安克创新/九号公司/泡泡玛特/名创优品为代表。 （3）搭建海外产能：于墨西哥、东南亚等地搭建本地化供应链，以应对关税成本提升的影响。 推荐标的：石头科技、海尔智家、九号公司、安克创新、TCL电子、德昌股份、开润股份、泡泡玛特、名创优品、赛维时代 •石头科技：进军北美线下大KA，继续看好更积极的产品和销售策略拉动份额持续提升 •九号公司：外销市场既有品牌沉淀，亦有渠道开拓和产品创新能力，看好割草机器人/E-Bike全球市场增长 •开润股份：箱包代工壁垒坚实、一体化服装代工锦上添花 •安克创新：品牌出海标杆企业，聚焦核心主业后看好各业务线稳健增长 •海尔智家：海外业务受关税影响小、预计保持景气，盈利能力仍有持续提升空间 •TCL电子：依托高端化以及线下渠道开拓，持续突破国际市场 •德昌股份：围绕核心优质下游客户拓品类，前瞻性布局海外产能 •泡泡玛特：看好多品类新业态多元发展，海外加速扩张带动收入利润高增 •名创优品：IP航母乘兴趣消费浪潮，海外成长逻辑持续兑现 风险提示：贸易摩擦风险；原材料价格大幅波动；汇率波动风险等 目录 CONTENTS 1 细分赛道外销总结 2 优秀外销公司的基因：创新、品牌与产能 3 投资建议与盈利预测 4 风险提示 1.1出口整体：外需稳定，基数走高但空调/冰箱/电视/小家电出口仍延续增长趋势 表1：2024Q1-Q3空调/冰箱/电视/大部分小家电出口延续双位数增长趋势 2023Q2各品类出口数据不同程度恢复，小 电恢复相对较早 2024Q2虽基数走高，但空调/冰箱/电视/ 部分小家电仍延续双位数增长表现 出口数量同比增速 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10 2023-11 2023-12 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-11 2024-12 电扇 2.8% -6.4% 38.2% 15.2% 22.3% 40.5% 27.7% 33.2% 22.9% 41.4% 49.4% 40.3% 42.1% 71.9% 15.8% 45.9% 58.7% 39.8% 39.9% 33.6% 31.4% 40.1% 24.7% 36.2% 空调 1.5% -13.8% -4.5% 1.2% -0.4% 12.9% 1.3% 35.0% 20.5% 39.3% 17.8% 14.9% 19.1% 14.7% 1.7% 15.1% 40.2% 49.3% 52.6% 40.2% 29.7% 58.9% 41.5% 32.5% 冰箱 -15.4% -20.8% -8.2% 3.3% 21.1% 28.1% 28.6% 35.2% 55.8% 58.1% 65.7% 67.6% 40.1% 43.5% 22.5% 20.8% 15.7% 22.1% 14.9% 20.6% 9.7% 22.6% 8.0% 10.6% 洗衣机 13.0% 17.7% 45.2% 57.7% 57.3% 60.9% 24.7% 48.1% 49.7% 37.6% 42.0% 33.0% 49.5% 27.2% 13.5% 17.9% 17.8% 12.3% 9.9% 7.7% -0.4% 12.3% -4.0% 18.5% 微波炉 -19.6% -6.5% 2.2% -14.1% 4.8% 15.0% 22.9% 16.8% 27.5% 37.3% 18.7% 20.2% 30.2% 2.9% 0.3% 12.6% 2.9% 13.4% 12.4% 16.0% 7.9% 8.8% 11.8% 1.4% LCD电视 7.5% 3.5% 25.3% 6.8% 2.3% 12.9% 0.8% 5.2% 11.9% 6.1% 0.1% 5.9% -5.0% 7.3% -6.6% 14.5% 18.7% 4.8% 18.4% 11.8% 4.1% 92.4% 70.6% 76.3% 电炒锅 1.2% 8.9% 27.1% 29.6% 52.4% 25.7% 29.2% 122.4% 36.9% 21.1% -5.2% 27.3% 18.2% 86.3% -18.8% 74.5% 8.2% 11.7% 8.6% -20.9% -16.4% 38.9% 12.5% -32.7% 电动剃须刀 -7.3% 9.3% 70.6% 29.7% 9.8% 17.3% 12.6% 51.1% 27.5% 26.1% 20.4% 35.4% 44.1% 23.9% 26.1% 9.7% 26.2% 27.9% 24.1% 5.9% -0.2% 28.9% 11.2% 24.1% 电饭锅 -14.1% 2.4% 21.0% 7.2% -5.7% -4.4% -5.4% 23.4% 2.8% 18.3% 19.2% 31.9% 37.7% 24.6% -7.2% 11.9% 9.8% 22.0% 31.8% 4.6% 5.2% 32.2% 10.0% 7.3% 电热干手器 42.1% -51.6% 84.2% 55.9% 29.2% 19.8% 10.4% 8.2% 25.0% 33.8% 36.6% 77.2% 47.5% 172.5% -23.1% 16.4% 17.1% 3.8% -8.6%22.3%-11.4%16.3%-8.6%6.9% 电热水器 9.4% 5.5% 14.2% 42.7% 18.2% 37.5% 32.0% 5.2% 11.9% 18.5% 61.5% 66.5% 85.4% 60.0% 30.3% 18.1% 36.7% 6.6% 52.3%48.1%25.1%43.6%41.4%48.5% 电烤面包机-24.7%-43.8%-0.4%-18.5%-6.8% -8.1% -9.1% 12.7% 31.4% 31.6% 14.9% 29.1% 25.5% 84.1% -11.6% 11.5% 29.3% 42.7% 24.7% 32.2% 7.1%27.0%25.1%12.8% 电气空间加热器 -21.4% -32.3% 8.3% 5.9% 0.1% -1.9% -9.5% 8.5% 1.6% -6.1% -0.9% -0.6% -0.9% 16.8% -17.9%-30.4%-21.9%-18.4%-1.3%1.3%-10.3%-4.5%-15.4%-3.1% 电熨斗 0.1% 干燥机 -8.3% 咖啡机和电茶壶 -17.1% 气体净化器 -37.5% 水净化器 -2.4% -0.1% 50.9%15.4% 21.5% 28.4% 17.9% 44.7%41.6% 21.3%40.4% 29.7% 36.8% 62.3%-19.7% 34.3% 44.4% 14.3% 6.8% 3.5% 27.4% 38.1% 21.5% 68.0% 32.0% 38.8% 35.3% 38.0% 35.1% 25.0% 54.4% -11.8% 6.6% 18.6% 21.7% 14.2% 5.3% 0.4% 28.9% 18.3% 15.6% 27.5% 13.3% 84.0% 21.9% 46.6% 42.8% 43.1% -1.7% -13.0% 3.9% 10.5% 6.6% 36.7% 4.9% 14.6% 32.5% 14.2% 9.5% -6.6% 20.1% 0.5% 17.7% 14.1%38.2%5.0%-31.4%-6.8%33.5%12.1%9.7%2.0%-2.0% 28.8% -30.4%14.0%-13.1%2.9%-2.0%-2.2%22.4%20.2%13.9%14.2% -49.7% -10.6%-16.7%-5.0%-0.1% 59.9% 67.4%63.9% 25.7% -15.9%25.8%0.4%28.3% 13.9% 吸尘器 -15.1% -20.6% 11.2% 12.4% 3.4% 11.6% 10.6% 38.3% 56.2% 32.3% 25.8% 70.2% 31.4% 33.7% 14.2% 0.3% 25.1% 22.5% 20.7% 饮水机 -11.4% -9.0% 13.0% 11.1% 25.4% 31.8% 11.3% 27.3% 59.3% 41.6% 40.5% 66.9% 66.9% 54.2% 44.4% 34.4% 32.4% 27.0% 28.0% 滴液式咖啡机 -19.6% -42.3% -5.2% -10.8% -3.7% -9.6% -5.7% 33.7% 22.1% 44.5% 20.7% 47.4% 24.2% 55.7% 2.1% -4.3% 22.4% 39.8% 26.6% 13.7% 8.4% 24.4% 16.2% 21.2% 15.7% 46.8% 31.1% 50.2%8.7%23.8%0.7%18.1%22.5% 14.6% 7.1%22.6%20.7%19.7% 25.3% 7.4% -3.7% 28.7% 10.1% 1.9% 15.1% 16.0% 10.5% 60.0% 37.2% 41.3% -41.3% -26.0% -26.5% 32.0% 15.0% 11.9% 40.6% 17.6% 31.8% 39.4% 16.0% 17.7% 21.2% 25.3% 7.3% 3.4% 0.4% 11.8% -1.8% 16.8%-14.6% 泵压式咖啡机 -46.7% -48.6% 0.4%-39.3%-22.1%-18.8%-30.1% -22.3% -14.3% 1.8% 13.8% 23.3% 31.3%48.0% -21.8%-0.9% 13.1% 14.0% 27.6% 10.6% 22.5% 3.3% 37.1% 蒸馏渗滤式咖啡机 -30.8% -48.3% 17.7%-15.5% 3.4% -39.8% -12.7% -20.8% 41.5%35.4%39.0% -7.7% -40.5% 39.1% -17.7%-51.6% 6.7% -4.0% -27.8%-46.0%-69.5% 其他电咖啡机或茶壶 3.8%3.2% 43.3%1.9% 25.6% 19.6% 25.1% 51.0% 36.2% -0.1% 9.7% 32.1% 25.5% 56.6% -18.6%23.7% 18.1% 10.3% -1.7%-4.7%-10.5% 15.9% 46.4% 49.2% 39.2% 40.5% 37.7% 31.0% 81.3% -2.3% 6.6% 27.6% 27.1% 35.6% 14.5% 15.5% 18.8% 76.5% -15.0% 34.2% 61.1% 75.0% 48.4% 33.0% 26.2% 30.0% 53.3% -16.5% 家用自动面包机 -30.5% 26.1% 食品研磨机及搅拌器 -13.1% -28.8% 片式烤面包机(多士炉) -1