释放聚变能

Navigating challenges& opportunitiesin fusion energycommercialization C O N T E N T F O R E W O R D3E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y4 1 .F U S I O N ’ S R O L E I N T H E G L O B A L E N E R G YT R A N S I T I O N6 2 .U N D E R S TA N D I N G F U S I O N E N E R G YT E C H N O L O G Y8 3 .A C C E L E R AT I N G M O M E N T U M D R I V E SI N T E R E S T I N F U S I O N1 0 4 .T H E PAT H T O C O M M E R C I A L I Z AT I O N1 4 5 .K E Y S T E P S T O E S TA B L I S H I N G A F U S I O NE C O S Y S T E M1 6 C O N C L U S I O N : N O W I S T H E T I M E T O F O C U SO N F U S I O N1 8 STEPHAN RUEHLPartner, Energy, Utilities & ResourcesMunich ARTUR KORINSKIManager, Energy, Utilities & ResourcesMunich ALINA SIMONConsultant, GrowthMunich MICHAEL KRUSEManaging Partner, Energy, Utilities & ResourcesZurich LARS OLE NOWAKManager, Energy, Utilities & ResourcesFrankfurt MA XIM RUDConsultant, GrowthMunich We would like to extend our sincere thanks to Mike Dunne, a leading expert in fusion energy,for his significant contributions to our research and his invaluable input to this report. F O R E W O R D In the ever-evolving global energy landscape, the pursuit of sustainable,reliable, and economical energy sources has never been more critical.Across many countries, the debate on how to approach the energytransition is often influenced by ideology, lacking the necessaryopenness to a broad spectrum of technologies. Practitioners in theenergy sector recognize that the current trajectory of the energytransition is costly and fraught with risks of failure. The energy world of the future demands both reliability and flexibilityin supply. Today, battery storage and gas plants are considered thepredominant solutions to meet these needs. But is this the only viablepath forward? Are there emerging options on the horizon that meritserious consideration? Four years ago, Arthur D. Little (ADL) published its first Report on theprospects of fusion energy, entering a debate that was just beginningto gain traction. This latest Report revisits the topic, offering anupdated perspective on fusion energy, assessing its current status,andilluminating the path to commercialization. The transition from fossil fuels to clean energy sources is no longerjust an environmental imperative — it is an economic opportunity.Thedebate about fusion energy can potentially stand at the forefrontof this transition since it drives the discussion of a technology-agnosticand non-ideologized energy world of the future. We hope this Report provides valuable insights and contributes toshaping an open and forward-thinking discussion about the futureofenergy. Stephan Rühl PartnerEnergy, Utilities & Resources Michael KruseManaging PartnerEnergy, Utilities & Resources E X E C U T I V ES U M M A R Y Fusion energy is at a key moment. Once considered a technology30 years away from reality, recent scientific breakthroughs andsociety’s desire for carbon-neutral power are creating pathways tocommercialization, with the first commercial grid-connected fusionpower plants expected to come online in the 2040s. The need forclean, safe, sustainable energy — combined with fusion technologyadvances and government and investor backing — means now is thetime to take a fresh look at fusion as part of the future energy mix. The world faces an increasing energy-supply gap as fossil fuelpower plants switch off. Wind and solar alone cannot deliver theconsistent, always-on power required in a world using increasinglymore electricity, even with the addition of battery storage. Nuclearfission brings challenges around cost, safety, and waste disposal. Thisleaves a pressing need for new green power sources, and fusion hasthe potential to provide a long-term solution that guarantees energysecurity for countries, businesses, and consumers. Fusion creates energy by combining hydrogen atoms at extremelyhigh temperatures in the same way that stars create light and heat.Researchers have studied it for more than a century, and in 2022, theUS National Ignition Facility (NIF) conducted the first experiment thatgenerated more energy than it consumed. Subsequent experimentshave repeated this net energy gain, sparking enormous interest fromgovernments and investors. ADL first explored the potential of fusion energy in 2021.1Building onthat and subsequent client work, this Report breaks down the road tocommercialization for fusion energy. Although a range of challengesaround technology, regulation, and cost must be overcome, opportunitiesare vast — particularly for early investors. To drive success, technologyvendors, governments, energy operators, investors, and regulatorsmust work together to build a fusion ecosystem, collaborating tocommercialize the power of the sun and deliver safe, scalable greenpower to meet rapidly increasing energy needs. 1 .F U S I O N ’ S R O L E I N T H EG L O B A LE N E R G Y T R A N S I T I O N FACTORS DRIVINGGREEN ENERGY DEMAND M A N Y R E N E W A