投资欧洲的绿色未来绿色投资需求、前景和弥补资金缺口的障碍

Investing in Europe’s green future Carolin Nerlich, Petra Köhler-Ulbrich,Malin Andersson, Carlo Pasqua,Laurent Abraham, Krzysztof Bańkowski,Tina Emambakhsh, Annalisa Ferrando,Charlotte Grynberg, Johannes Groß,Lucia Hoendervangers,Vasileios Kostakis,Daphne Momferatou, Matthias Rau-Goehring,Erzsebet-Judit Rariga, Desislava Rusinova,Ralph Setzer, Martina Spaggiari,Fabio Tamburrini, Josep Maria Vendrell Simon,Francesca Vinci Green investmentneeds,outlookand obstaclestofunding the gap Disclaimer:This publicationshould not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank(ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. Contents Abstract2 Executive summary3 1Introduction7 2Investing towards net zero9 2.1Approaches for defining investment needs102.2Taking stock of EU investment need estimates112.3Sector-specific investment needs172.4Country-specific investment needs20Box 1Global green investment needs24 3How can green investment needs be financed? The role of theprivate sector27 3.1Current financing landscape273.2Bank lending conditions for financing green investment353.3How do firms assess their transition towards net zero?40 4The role of the public sector as a catalyst to unlock private capital 4.1Public funding sources of green investment in the EU474.2Will there be a public funding gap?524.3Crowding-in or crowding-out of green private investment54Box 2The macroeconomic impact of green investment55 5Policy options supporting green investment 5.1Structural policies to support green investment595.2How can fiscal policies incentivise green investment?635.3Proposals for EU funding initiatives to support green investment655.4The need for progress on the capital markets union675.5More transparency and disclosure could support the greentransition69 6Conclusion72 Abstract The green transition of theEUeconomy will require substantial investment to 2030and beyond. Estimates of green investment needs vary between institutions and aresurrounded by high uncertainty, but they all point to a requirement for faster andmore ambitious action. Green investment will need to be financed primarily by theprivate sector. While banks are expected to make a key contribution to funding thegreen transition, capital markets need to deepen further, especially to supportinnovation financing.Progress on the capital markets union would support the greentransition.Publicfunds will be vital to complement and de-risk private greeninvestment.Structural reformsand enhanced business conditionsshould be tailoredto encourage firms, households and investors to step up their green investmentactivities. JEL Codes:E22; E44; G21; Q41; Q50; Q58 Keywords:green transition; investment; financing; fiscal policy; structural policy Executive summary Pursuing a successful green transition requires substantial investmentsacross theentireEU economy, including in renewable energy, gridinfrastructure, sustainable mobility and energy efficiency.Despite recentprogress, much more effort is needed to keep decarbonisation on tracktoachievecarbon neutrality by 2050. This paper sheds light on the green investment needs inEurope until 2030 by analysing various available estimates. It provides evidence ofhow these investment needs have been financed so far, how the funding landscapeis expected to evolve and whether public funding sources will be adequate.Thepaperalsodiscusses various policy options to support the green transition,particularly through enhanced green innovation, reduced regulatory burdens,reskilling and tailor-made financing instruments. The main contribution of this paperis to integrate these economic, financial and structural elements, offering acomprehensiveview ofthe complex issue of green investment. The key findings canbe summarised as follows. Toeffectively achieve the green transition, Europe faces the challenge ofmobilising substantialadditionalinvestments, estimatedas ranging from2.9%to4.0% of EUGDP each yearuntil 2030(measured atconstant2023prices).However, quantifyinggreen investment needs is a daunting exercise,subject to highlevels ofuncertainty.Depending on the assumptions and methodologies used,various studies provide estimates for additional green investment needs within thisrange. If all additional investment were productive,and in net terms, thiswould implya considerableincrease inthe total investment-to-GDP ratio.In recentyears,estimates ofgreen investment needs havebeenrising steadily,largelyreflectingmore ambitious decarbonisation targets for 2030 and underscoring the urgency andscale of investment required to effectively address climate change andthetransitionto a sustainable energy future. Understanding thescopeof the various estimatesand their underlying assumptionsis crucial, as the amounts of green investmentrequired are expected toaffectthe economy and the financial sector to varyingdegrees. Investment needs vary across sectors,with investment