实现净零的财政途径：东盟绿色能源转型的障碍和解决方案

Economic Research Institutefor ASEAN and East Asia Policy Brief Fiscal Pathways to Net Zero:Barriers and Solutions for ASEAN’s Key Messages: by Fauziah Zen, Denisa Athallia, and Nadira Melia •Fossil-fueldependencypersistsin ASEAN despitenet-zeropledges,as fiscalincentives continue to favourconventionalenergy over ASEAN governments spent over US$30 billion on fossil-fuel subsidiesin 2023 – around three times public spending on renewable energy(RE). This persistent fiscal bias, despite rising climate risks andnet-zero commitments, entrenches dependence on fossil fuels andundermines the competitiveness of clean energy. This Policy Briefexamines the fiscal barriers that sustain this dependency, includingfossil-fuel subsidies, policy instability, and persistent financing gaps,and proposes policy pathways to accelerate a just energy transition.Focusing on Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, the analysis showsthat existing tax incentives, carbon pricing initiatives, and blendedfinance mechanisms have not yet been sufficient to offset fossil-fuel •Financinggaps and policyinstabilitylimit Indonesia,Malaysia,andThailand’sability to attract investment •Fiscalreform can breakthecycle by redirectingsubsidies, derisking private •Priorityactionsincludephasingoutfossil-fuelsubsidies, scaling up blendedfinance,and strengthening 1. Fiscal Policy for the Green Transition ASEAN’scommitment to net zero is increasingly reflected innational strategies and long-term climate targets. However, thefiscal implications of the green transition are substantial. Fossil-fuel-dependent economies face potential job losses, declining public Fauziah ZenSenior Economist, ERIADenisa AthalliaResearch Associate, ERIA In 2023, fossil-fuel subsidies across ASEAN exceeded US$30 billion,far outstripping public spending on renewable energy (RE). Thisimbalance weakens price signals, delays investment in clean energy,andlocks economies into carbon-intensive development paths. Nadira MeliaResearch Associate, ERIA ASEAN Member States (AMS) have adopted a mix of fiscal instruments– including subsidies, tax incentives, carbon pricing, and blendedfinance – to support the transition (Table 1). While these measuresrepresent important progress, their effectiveness remains uneven, Under development.Under development, planned for implementation in 2026. Source: Authors’ summary based on Zen, Kimura, and Purwanto (2025); Ministry of Finance (2024); SEDA (2021). 2. ASEAN Case Studies: Indonesia, Thailand, andMalaysia (EVs) accounting for at least 30% of total vehicleproductionby 2030. Fiscal incentives,includingexcisetax reductions and consumer subsidies, 2.1. Indonesia Indonesia remains heavily reliant on coal, whichaccounts for more than 40% of its energy supply.Toaddress this dependence,the governmenthas prioritised the early retirement of coal-firedpowerplants(CFPPs),supported by blendedfinancemechanisms such as the Just EnergyTransitionPartnership(JETP)and the EnergyTransitionMechanism(ETM).These initiativesarecomplemented by tax incentives aimed ataccelerating renewable energy deployment.havesupported EV adoption and domesticmanufacturing. However, two challenges threatenprogress. First, EV uptake reduces revenues fromfuel and vehicle taxes, raising concerns over long-term fiscal sustainability. Second, governance andadministrativeconstraints hinder the effectiveimplementationof renewable energy incentives,including licensing processes and feed-in tariffs.Without stronger institutional capacity and stablefiscal commitments, Thailand risks falling short of Despite these efforts, three key barriers persist.First, coal remains relatively cheap and abundantdueto long-standing subsidies and establishedinfrastructure.Second,limitedfiscalspaceits EV and renewable energy ambitions.2.3. Malaysia Malaysia’s Renewable Energy Roadmap (MyRER)targets renewable energy shares of 31% by 2025and 40% by 2035, with a focus on solar, bioenergy,and hydropower. Policy instruments such as feed-in tariffs, large-scale solar auctions, and Net EnergyMeteringare supported by financial incentivesincluding the Green Technology Financing Scheme(GTFS), Green Investment Tax Allowance (GITA), andGreen Income Tax Exemption (GITE) (Zen, Kimura, &Purwanto, 2025). Despite this comprehensive framework, structuralchallenges remain. Fossil-fuel and nuclear-relatedsubsidies continue to distort the energy market,while overlapping incentive schemes often favourconventional generation over renewables. Stronger regulatoryuncertainty, weak project bankability,and insufficient political buy-in. Slow progress in carbon pricing weakens long-term market signals, while underdeveloped greenfinance ecosystems constrain capital mobilisation.Bankability challenges – linked to infrastructurereadiness and high development costs – continuetodeter private investment and delay the 3.Financing the Transition: Are Current PoliciesEnough? Across Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia, realisedinvestme