2024年-2025年经济展望

April 2024 Department of Economic Affairs, Commerce and Industry Disclaimer The Department of Economic Affairs, Commerce andIndustry is cautious with the estimation for 2023and projections for 2024 and 2025 due to continuous international economic developments and growinguncertainties from global tensions.Therefore, these estimates should be regarded as preliminary andusedwith care. Contents Disclaimer.......................................................................................................................................................................2Contents...........................................................................................................................................................................3List of Abbreviations.......................................................................................................................................................4Executive summary.........................................................................................................................................................5Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................................8Chapter 1. Economic developments in 2023...................................................................................................................9Chapter 2: Baseline 2024 and 2025...............................................................................................................................11Chapter 3: Scenario’s Outlook 2025............................................................................................................................12Chapter 4: The REAL GDP 2023 and 2024..................................................................................................................14Chapter 5: Risk factors for outlook 2024 and 2025......................................................................................................16Chapter 6: Recommendation.........................................................................................................................................18Chapter 7: Global Economy..........................................................................................................................................19Global Inflation.........................................................................................................................................................19Prices.........................................................................................................................................................................19Annexes.........................................................................................................................................................................21Annex A: CARTAC and the MARUBA Model........................................................................................................21Annex B: Economic Outlook 2024–2025, April 2024............................................................................................22Annex C: Economic Outlook 2024–2025, April 2024............................................................................................23Annex D: Assumptions scenario A and scenario B for the year 2025......................................................................24Annex E: Economic Outlook scenario A and scenario B for the year 2025.............................................................25Annex F: Graphs.......................................................................................................................................................26 List of Abbreviations AbbreviationExplanation Executive summary Aruba'sEconomic Outlook:NavigatingUncertainties As we look to theyears ahead, the Departmentof Economic Affairs, Commerce, and Industryin Aruba is cautious in its projectionsamidst thechallengesin the global economy. While ourislandcontinues its post-pandemic growthtrajectory, we must remain vigilant, especiallyinlightof inflationary pressures,investmentopportunities in the region and global politicaltensions. 7,504m)will be at 123.4percent of the level of2019. Compared to the forecast of January 2024, theyear 2024 shows an increase of 5.5 percentagepoints (from 3.0 percent to 8.5 percent),whichismainly influenced by Total Investments(privateand public),the projected tourismgrowth andPrivateConsumption as a result ofboth investments and tourism growth.For theyear 2025, compared to the forecast of January2024, adecrease of-0.1percentage points (from1.4 percent to 1.3percent) is expected. Thisdecrease is influenced by an increase inPrivateInvestments projected for 2024 compared to thelast projection, with a big investment in a hotelproject in San Nicolas for this year(See AnnexB) A Look Back The years 2022 and 2023 have been marked