2024年全球天然气报告

Foreword We present this flagship report on the state of the gas markets,which supply more than one-fifth of the world’s energy needs duringa time of extreme energy uncertainty. The findings show risingenergy demand across all regions, record-breaking coal emissions,and extreme weather conditions, demonstrating an urgent need formore policy clarity around energy supply planning. Strong demandgrowth for gas underpins its crucial role in reducing global emissions,providing flexibility and resilience, enabling efficient, affordable,sustainable development, and supporting greater adoption of criticalclean energy technologies, including the scaling up of renewables.However, the investment in natural gas and low-CO2gaseous energytechnologies is falling short of demand growth, which must bereversed. Li YalanPresident,IGU The energy transition represents a unique challenge for mankind. Ajourney that will not be linear, marked by great aspirations and manyhurdles, from geopolitical tensions to technology disruptions andunforeseeable global economy developments. In this continuouslyevolving transformation, natural gas and related infrastructurerepresents a critical element of sustainable resiliency for the globalenergy system, while new green and low carbon molecules willplay an essential role to achieve a just and technologically neutraltransition. Stefano VenierChief Executive Officer,Snam Natural gas is priced at 10-50 USD/MWh to end users, significantlybelow oil products at typically 100 USD/MWh. Natural gas is alsocheaper than coal in America, and similar or slightly more expensiveother places. However, CO2emissions from gas is only 50% of the coalemissions and 68% of oil emissions per energy unit. The share of gasbeing accessible for global trade as LNG has grown from 0% in 1965to 12% today and will be 18% within a decade. Thus, being cheaperand cleaner than coal and oil and accessible globally, gas has doubledits market share versus coal and oil from 1965 to 2020 and is now 30%of the fossil fuel mix. In our scenarios for future energy mix, naturalgas will be larger than coal by 2030 and larger than oil by 2050. It is apleasure and honor for us to support IGU and Snam in detailing thecurrent market trends and path forward for natural gas. Jarand RystadChief Executive Officer,Rystad Energy Executive Summary Global gas demand sustained its growth in 2023,increasing 59 Bcm (1.5%) from 2022. This trendis expected to continue in 2024 with a furtherestimated ~87 Bcm (2.1%) rise in demand. Asia’sstrong demand growth continues to drive growthin global gas imports, while growth in exports fromNorth America and the Middle East have been in thedriving seat of the global supply growth. Althoughglobal gas markets have stabilised from recordvolatility and prices seen in 2022, they remain fragileas concerns about energy security persist. As 2023became another record emissions and coal use year,it is important to highlight that shifting from coalto natural gas is a readily available, cost-effective,and affordable way to cut emissions by around 50%immediately. It is crucial to emphasize that this stepshould be taken alongside, not instead of, ongoingefforts to expand renewable energy, enhanceefficiency, and scale up all emission-free energysources that are technologically and economicallyviable. These technologies are expected to play critical rolesin the decarbonisation of energy, as they enablelow-CO2, reliable, and flexible gaseous energy to fuelsustainable, secure, and affordable future energysystems. The importance of ensuring the continued flow ofdense, efficient, flexible, and reliable gaseous energyis particularly pertinent, as global energy demandhas been consistently growing, not only in thedeveloping but also in the developed regions of theworld, despite energy efficiency gains and structuraldecline in some sectors. Moreover, recent globalshifts, such as the increasing adoption of artificialintelligence (AI) and rising temperatures, will spurpower demand from data centres and coolingrespectively, also impacting gas demand dynamics.These trends are challenging the assumptions ofenergy demand growth drop off that variousinstitutions make in their demand scenarios. If globaldemand continues to grow as it has in recent years,future demand is likely to overshoot many of theworld’s major 2030 demand reduction targets. Ifenergy demand were to maintain the growth rateobserved between 2021-2024, the approximately2.7% annual increase towards 2030 wouldsignificantly outpace most major scenarios assessedin this report (ranging from –0.2% to 1.7%). Even ifglobal energy demand continued to develop at therelatively lower rate of growth observed in the past10 years, the 1.8% annual increase would surpassscenario assumptions. In this era of uncertainty,continued investment in gas and its infrastructure,accelerating investments in low- and zero CO2gastechnologies along with other clean energy supply,and ramping up energy sav