欧洲财政委员会2024年年度报告

Composition of European Fiscal Board Niels THYGESENChair ProfessorEmeritus of International Economics at the University of Copenhagen and former adviser togovernments and international institutions, Denmark Roel BEETSMAMember Professor at the University of Amsterdam and Dean of Economics and Business, the Netherlands, and VisitingProfessor at the Copenhagen Business School Massimo BORDIGNONMember Professor and former Director of the Department of Economics and Finance at the Catholic University of Milan,Italy Xavier DEBRUNMember Head of Economics and Research of the National Bank of Belgium Member (resigned on 2 September 2024)Former Finance Minister;adjunct Professor at Warsaw University; and since 6 August 2024 Board Member atBankGospodarstwa Krajowego, Poland For more information about the European Fiscal Board, please visit the following website:https://ec.europa.eu/european-fiscal-board This report has been written under the responsibility of the European Fiscal Board with the support of itssecretariat.Chapter 5 was prepared autonomously by the members of the Board and contains some factualcomments by the Secretariat.Please quoteas: European Fiscal Board (2024) Annual Report 2024, Brussels. Comments on the report should be sent to: Secretariat of the European Fiscal BoardEuropean CommissionRue de la Loi 200Office BERL02/3521049 BrusselsBelgium Email:EFB-SECRETARIAT@ec.europa.eumailto: Cut-offdate:9September2024 ABBREVIATIONS Member States BEBelgiumBGBulgariaCZCzechiaDKDenmarkDEGermanyEEEstoniaIEIrelandELGreeceESSpainFRFranceHRCroatiaITItalyCYCyprusLVLatviaLTLithuaniaLULuxembourgHUHungaryMTMaltaNLNetherlandsATAustriaPLPolandPTPortugalRORomaniaSISloveniaSKSlovakiaFIFinlandSESwedenEAEuro areaEUEuropean UnionEU-27 European Union, 27 Member StatesEA-20 euro area, 20 Member States Other CAPBC-SIFICSRDBPDECDSAEBECBECOFINEDPEFBEMUERMIIESMGDP Cyclically-adjusted primary balanceCountry-specific scope index of independent fiscal institutionsCountry-specific recommendationDraft budgetary planDanish Economic CouncilDebt sustainability analysisExpenditure BenchmarkEuropean Central BankEconomic and Financial Affairs CouncilExcessive deficit procedureEuropean Fiscal BoardEconomic andmonetaryunionEuropean exchange rate mechanismEuropean Stability MechanismGross domestic product HCF-PSBRHigh Council of Finance–Public Sector BorrowingRequirements section (Belgium)HICPHarmonised Index of Consumer PricesFPBFederal Planning Bureau (Belgium)IFIsIndependentfiscalinstitutionsIMFInternational Monetary FundMTFSPMedium-term fiscal-structural planMTOMedium-termbudgetary objectiveNGEUNext Generation EUOECDOrganisationforEconomic Co-operation and DevelopmentRRFRecovery and resilience facilityRTReference TrajectorySBStructural balanceSCPsStability and convergence programmesSGPStability and Growth PactSPBStructural primary balanceVATValue-added taxTECTreaty Establishing the European CommunityTFEUTreaty on the Functioning of the European Union CONTENTS Foreword1 Executive summary 1.Main macroeconomic and fiscal developments in 2023 1.1.Main macroeconomic developments81.2.Main budgetary developments10 2.Ex-post evaluation of the implementation of the EU fiscal framework14 2.1.Innovations in surveillance methods and practice152.2.Early fiscal policy guidance162.3.Medium-term budgetary plans162.4.Fiscal recommendations for 2023182.5.Draft budgetary plans for 2023202.6.In-year assessments222.7.Fiscal developments in 2023 in retrospect232.8.Final assessment of 2023272.9.Excessive deficit procedure29 3.1.Safeguards on IFI Independence in the EU393.2.Independent fiscal institutions in Belgium and Denmark49 4.Assessment of the fiscal stance in 202357 4.1.Guidance issued in 2022584.2.Finalassessment61 5.1. Introduction655.2. Implementation of the economic governance reform695.3. Stronger national frameworks to implement reforms715.4. National and joint EU fiscal efforts to supply European Public Goods73 Glossary80 Annex A: Overview tables Annex B: Statistical annex99 Annex C: Methodological annex106 References111 LIST OF TABLES 1.1.Fiscal sustainability risk classification by EU Member State from 2022 and 2024 European Semester’s Spring Package121.2.Overview of budgetary plans vsoutturns for 2023, euro area and EU132.1.Fiscal indicators for 2023 as defined in the recommendations (this table uses Commission terminology)192.2.Fiscal indicators for 2023 used for assessment of the draft budgetary plans (this table uses Commission terminology)222.3.Fiscal indicators for 2023 in the Commission’s final assessment (this table uses Commission terminology)283.1.Overview of the FPB’s key reports493.2.Overview of the DEC’s key reports535.1.Classification of EPGs76A1.Application of EU fiscal rules in the 2023 surveillance cycle-the preventive arm of the SGP (see Box A1 on how to readthe table)84A2.Application of EU fiscal rules in the 2023 surveillance cycle-the corrective arm of the SGP; countries not in EDP (seeBox