欧洲财政委员会2025年年度报告

Composition of the European Fiscal Board Pieter HasekampChairDirector at the CPB,Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Research, the Netherlands Eckhard JanebaMemberProfessor of Economics,University of Mannheim, Germany George KopitsMemberformer Assistant Director, International Monetary Fund, and founding Chair, Fiscal Council, Hungary Benedicta Marzinotto MemberAssistant Professor of Economic Policy,University of Udine, Italy;Visiting Professor,College of Europe;andAdjunct Professor,Johns Hopkins University Lucía Rodríguez Muñoz MemberMember of theGoverning Council and the Executive Committee,Bank of Spain For more information about the European Fiscal Board, please visit the following website:European Fiscal Board (EFB)-European Commission This report has been written under the responsibility of the European Fiscal Board with the support of itssecretariat.Please quote as: European Fiscal Board (2025) Annual Report 2025, Brussels. Comments on the report should be sent to: Secretariat of the European Fiscal BoardEuropean CommissionRue de la Loi 200Office BERL02/3521049 BrusselsBelgium Email:EFB-SECRETARIAT@ec.europa.eu Cut-off date:10 October2025 ABBREVIATIONS Member States BEBelgiumBGBulgariaCZCzechiaDKDenmarkDEGermanyEEEstoniaIEIrelandELGreeceESSpainFRFranceHRCroatiaITItalyCYCyprusLVLatviaLTLithuaniaLULuxembourgHUHungaryMTMaltaNLNetherlandsATAustriaPLPolandPTPortugalRORomaniaSISloveniaSKSlovakiaFIFinlandSESwedenEAEuro areaEUEuropean UnionEU-27 European Union, 27 Member StatesEA-20 Euro area, 20 Member States Other CAPBC-SIFICSRDBPDSAEBECBECOFINEDPEFBEMUERMIIESMGDPHICP Cyclically-adjusted primarybudgetbalanceCountry-specific scope index of independent fiscal institutionsCountry-specific recommendationDraft budgetary planDebt sustainability analysisExpenditure BenchmarkEuropean Central BankEconomic and Financial Affairs CouncilExcessive deficit procedureEuropean Fiscal BoardEconomic andmonetaryunionEuropean exchange rate mechanismEuropean Stability MechanismGross domestic productHarmonised Index of Consumer Prices IFIsIndependentfiscalinstitutionsIMFInternational Monetary FundMTFSPMedium-term fiscal-structural planMTOMedium-term budgetary objectiveNGEUNext Generation EUOECDOrganisationforEconomic Co-operation and DevelopmentPFCPolish Fiscal CouncilRRFRecovery and resilience facilityRTReference TrajectorySBStructuralbudgetbalanceSCPsStability and convergence programmesSGPStability and Growth PactSPBStructural primarybudgetbalanceVATValue-added taxTFEUTreaty on the Functioning of the European Union CONTENTS Foreword1 Key Messages Executive summary 3 1.Main macroeconomic and fiscal developments in 20248 1.1.Main macroeconomic developments in 202491.2Main budgetary developments in 202410 2.1.2024 Fiscal surveillance cycle152.2.Expenditure developments in 2024 in retrospect222.3.Transition to the new EU surveillance framework242.4.Excessive deficit procedure34 3.Independent fiscal institutions40 3.1.Involvement of IFIs in the first vintage of medium-term fiscal-structural plans413.2.The new Polish Fiscal Council43 4.Assessment of the fiscal impulse and stance in 2024 47 4.1.Guidance issued in 2023484.2.Final assessment49 5.Conclusions55 Glossary 58 Annex A: Assessment of national medium-term fiscal-structural plans A.1.Member States receiving a reference trajectory65 BelgiumGermanyEstoniaGreeceSpainFrance Italy95Cyprus100Hungary104Malta109Austria112Poland117Portugal121Slovenia131Slovakia134Finland138 A.2.Member States receiving technical information143 Bulgaria143Czechia147Denmark150Croatia153Latvia158Lithuania161The Netherlands165Sweden169 A.3.Member States receiving only macroeconomic assumptions172 Ireland172Luxembourg176 Annex B: Main macroeconomic and fiscal variables179 References186 LIST OF TABLES 1.1.Fiscal sustainability risks by EU Member State121.2.Overview of budgetary plans vs outturns for 2024, euro area and EU132.1.Fiscal indicators informing the recommendations for 2024172.2.Fiscal indicators for 2024 used for assessment of draft budgetary plans182.3.2024 fiscal outturns vs 2023 recommendation for 2024202.4.The new SGP’s transitional and standard implementation timeline252.5.Revision of MTFPs-annual growth rates of national net expenditure, in %353.1.Groups of the 27 Member States as a function of their IFIs’ role in the MTFSPs42A.1.Overview of the medium-term fiscal-structural plans (MTFSPs)63A.2.Belgium-Main macroeconomic and fiscal variables67A.3.Germany–Main macroeconomic and fiscal variables72A.4.Estonia–Main macroeconomic and fiscal variables76 A.5.Greece–Main macroeconomic and fiscal variables80A.6.Spain–Main macroeconomic and fiscal variables85A.7.France–Main macroeconomic and fiscal variables90A.8.France–Main macroeconomic and fiscal variables in the originally submitted plan94A.9.Italy–Main macroeconomic and fiscal variables97A.10.Cyprus–Main macroeconomic and fiscal variables102A.11.Hungary–Main macroeconomic and fiscal variables106A.1