南华期货2024年国债四季度展望：驶于无人区，须校对方位

924MLF 7.30 2024  1.9%-2.15% 9249262400112.095%82.27%20bp Z0016410gaoxiang@nawaa.com 20111290 1...........................................................................2 1.1..................................................................................21.2..........................................................................31.3.............................................................................................4 2..........................................................................................6 2.1.........................................................................................62.2............................................................8 3......................................................................10 3.1............................................................................103.1.1...........................................................................................103.1.2..............................................................113.2...................................................................................133.2.1........................................................................133.2.2........................................................................14 4..........................................................................................................17 1...........................................................................11.1...........................................................................................31.1.............................................................................................31.2.......................................................................................52.1..............................................................................................62.2.............................................................62.3..............................................................................................72.4M1.......................................................................................................72.5..............................................................................................82.6..............................................................................................82.7.....................................................................................................93.1FED9.........................................................................................103.28.......................................................................113.3..............................................................................113.4.........................................................................................133.5.....................................................................................133.6............................................................................................143.7.........................................................................................143.8................................................................................................153.9.........................................................................................163.10GDP.........................................................................................16 9252.07%613bp924102.36460.39%105.0761.02%106.641.21%114.54.47% 2.2%2.1%9252400112.05% 1. 1.1 716bp8920bp 77MLF20bp 8137M1898102.1% 8 1.2 1.3 230bp50bp20bp924 2. 2.1 72005924M14M1PMI ifind 2.2 821 “ ”10-27097% 924“” 3. 3.1 3.1.1 20239950bp4.75%—5%61-2 8carry trade unwind60% 3.1.2 924+9 192450bp20bpMLF30bp20-25bp50bp 25-50bp 2MLF202061.9%-2.15% 3 6198830 WTOPSLMLFTMLFMLF 83 2M1 3.2 “” 3.2.1 3%4.063.3472001 9263.3666202.6966.5%1.353400 5600 8796498500639263.488% 3.2.2 2023101 3.2.2.1 20082008141%295.6%29.1% 2022GDP40%IMFGDP40%2021202146.8%127%114.8%62.2% 127%20.2%106% 3.2.2.2 93.9pct0.4pct5.1pct GDPGDP 4. “924”MLF 1.9%-2.15% “924”9262400112.095%82.27%20bp / 136310008400 8888 910www.nanhua.net603093