银河总量之声市场预期悄然变化20240923

2024年09月23日20：43发言人00：08感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 发言人00：32感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。 Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 发言人04：03 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 发言人06：32 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 发言人06：55感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 发言人07：19 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 发言人08：52 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 发言人11：13 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 发言人12：00感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。 Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 发言人12：23 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 发言人12：47 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 发言人13：10 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 发言人13：34 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 发言人13：57 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 发言人14：20 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 发言人14：44 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remain 发言人15：07 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line. 发言人15：31 感谢大家参加本次会议，会议即将开始，请稍后。Thanks for your participation. The meeting is ready to start. Please remainon the line.乱看，下面开始播报你的声明，声明完毕后，主持人可直接开始发言，谢谢。本次会议仅面向银河证券专业投资者客户，未经银河证券和演讲嘉宾经事先书面许可，不得以任何形式将会议内容和相关信息对外公布、转发、转载、传播、复制、编辑、修改等。银河证券对违反上述要求的行为主体，保留追究其法律责任的权利。 发言人16：18 尊敬的各位投资者，大家晚上好，我是中国银河证券宏观分析师张迪。今天将由我和我的同事，策略分析师杨超一起跟大家做相关的市场解读。我这边先跟大家分享一下，关于美联储降息之后，大家期待比较高的我们这边的一些逆周期政策的一个预期。然后分享的题目叫做这个降息未到还会来吗？主要是美联储在降息之后，上周五大家对于调降这个政策利率的预期会比较强，包括今天去回购，包括LPR，给了一个比较强的预期。但是最终央行是选择按兵不动，所以这个可能对大家的对于政策的预期产生了一定的扰动。那我们现在就是想分析一下未来可能会出现的一些宽松的范式。首先先讲因为9月5号当时央行的新闻发布会上也讲了，我们不太会去关注这个海外的一些变化，主要还是货币政策还是以我为主，所以这次其实美联储降完之后，我们没有直接跟