煤化工策略日报

能源化工团队 摘要 作者：夏聪聪从业资格证号：F3012139投资咨询证号：Z0012870联系方式：010-68578010 ●甲醇 【市场逻辑】成本支撑不足，甲醇供应稳中有增，需求旺季不旺，市场仍处于累库阶段。 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号成文时间：2024年09月19日星期四 【交易策略】受到情绪面的影响，甲醇重心暂时企稳，短期或测试2430-2450一带压力位。 ●PVC 【市场逻辑】成本端逐步企稳，PVC货源供应预期增加，而需求跟进乏力，高库存压力犹存。 【交易策略】PVC期货尚未企稳，需求旺季不旺，短期情绪及资金面扰动加大。期价上方五日均线附近承压。 ●尿素 【市场逻辑】尿素日产达到高位，货源供应偏宽松，而下游需求欠佳，供需压力增加。 【交易策略】短期内，尿素期货低位整理运行，重心或在1700-1800内波动，走势尚未企稳。 ●烧碱 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 【市场逻辑】烧碱供应预期回升，下游需求提升缓慢，厂区库存季节性累库，后期压力或逐步显现。 【交易策略】烧碱期货节后破位下行，短期维持弱势，关注上市以来低点附近支撑。 目录 第一部分品种策略观点...........................................................................................................................1第二部分期货行情回顾...........................................................................................................................1第三部分现货市场走势...........................................................................................................................2第四部分期现基差变动...........................................................................................................................4第五部分行业开工水平...........................................................................................................................6第六部分库存数据跟踪...........................................................................................................................7第七部分市场供需现状...........................................................................................................................9 图目录 图1：甲醇收盘价....................................................................................................................................................................................1图2：PVC收盘价......................................................................................................................................................................................1图3：尿素收盘价....................................................................................................................................................................................2图4：烧碱收盘价....................................................................................................................................................................................2图5：甲醇现货市场价...........................................................................................................................................................................2图6：电石法PVC市场价.........................................................................................................................................................................3图7：小颗粒尿素出厂均价..................................................................................................................................................................3图8：32%离子膜碱市场价.....................................................................................................................................................................4图9：甲醇基差.........................................................................................................................................................................................4图10：PVC基差.........................................................................................................................................................................................5图11：尿素基差......................................................................................................................................................................................5图12：烧碱基差......................................................................................................................................................................................5图13：甲醇开工率..................................................................................................................................................................................6图14：PVC开工率....................................................................................................................................................................................6图15：尿素开工率..................................................................................................................................................................................6图16：烧碱开工率..................................................................................................................................................................................7图17：甲醇港口库存.............................................................................................................................................................................7图18：PVC社会库存................................................................................................................................................................................8图19：尿素企业库存..................................................................................................................................................................